Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below support at 165.18 on 12/4/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below support at 31.91 and crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,407.05) fell 2.41 points or 0.17% on Tuesday.
Encouraged again by overnight price strength in foreign stock markets, SPX tried to rally in the opening hour but the attempt fizzled again. Stocks closed below their opening price levels.
NYSE trading volume rose 6% to a level that was still 10% below its 200-day SMA. Low volume indicates tepid demand for stocks.
SPX price hit resistance on Monday at its falling 50-day SMA, now at 1419.50, which also happens to be just below the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the SPX September-November price range at 1,424.41. Thus, the SPX tested and failed at a significant zone of technical resistance, as anticipated. As I wrote over the weekend, “Another failed short-term rally attempt may be at hand.”
There were advance warnings. During the regular day session on Thursday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed near its opening price, forming Spinning Top Candlestick, which indicated indecision. Another Spinning Top Candlestick on Friday confirmed Thursday’s stalemate in the battle of bullish and bearish forces. On Monday, SPY formed a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick, suggesting that bearish forces have asserted control over the short-term, day-to-day trend.
The rising Minor Ripple trend (which longer-term investors view as insignificant noise) lasted 2 weeks, which is quite typical of Minor Ripples. Assuming that minor bounce is over, the September-November downtrend may be ready to resume.
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the SPX price peak on 9/14/12. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1419.50, 50-day SMA
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1385.32, 200-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 123.43, 121.78, 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.99, 107.25, 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 11/30/12 when price fell below its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.89, 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral again on 11/30/12 when price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, although the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.93, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below support at 165.18 on 12/4/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below support at 31.91 and crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 11/30/12. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
11.52% , BIG , BIG LOTS
14.01% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.72% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
7.71% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
9.93% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
2.17% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
3.91% , NE , NOBLE
3.97% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
5.13% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
4.51% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
1.73% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
1.02% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
0.44% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
2.01% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
2.47% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
2.91% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.89% , AN , AUTONATION
2.52% , HSP , HOSPIRA
3.52% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
2.40% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.84% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.02% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
2.94% , NVDA , NVIDIA
1.17% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
3.46% , ASH , ASHLAND
0.52% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.70% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
1.42% , AES , AES
1.80% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
1.11% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
1.28% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
1.12% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
1.09% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.58% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-10.34% , GPS , GAP
-7.71% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-5.90% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-2.89% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-2.22% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-2.97% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-2.22% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-1.52% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.93% , USB , US BANCORP
-2.08% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
-1.98% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.56% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-1.99% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-0.22% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.43% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-0.95% , CR , CRANE
-1.80% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-0.18% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.48% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.53% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-1.06% , MTB , M&T BANK
-1.52% , IP , INTL PAPER
-0.73% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-3.02% , VFC , VF
-0.47% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.03% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.02% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.39% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-4.35% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-1.10% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-1.94% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-1.09% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.84% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.72% Italy Index, EWI
1.28% South Africa Index, EZA
0.94% Spain Index, EWP
0.89% France Index, EWQ
0.86% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.80% Sweden Index, EWD
0.68% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.66% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.64% Water Resources, PHO
0.64% Germany Index, EWG
0.62% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.61% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.61% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.58% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.57% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.57% China 25 iS, FXI
0.52% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.51% European VIPERs, VGK
0.49% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.46% Belgium Index, EWK
0.46% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.43% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.40% Networking, IGN
0.38% India PS, PIN
0.38% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.37% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.36% Russia MV, RSX
0.35% Austria Index, EWO
0.34% Mexico Index, EWW
0.32% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.31% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.31% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.30% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.29% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.27% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.26% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.26% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.25% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.24% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.23% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.22% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.22% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.21% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.21% Australia Index, EWA
0.20% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.18% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.18% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.17% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.17% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.16% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.16% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.14% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.13% Dividend International, PID
0.12% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.09% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.09% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.09% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.08% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.07% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.06% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.06% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.05% Japan Index, EWJ
0.03% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.03% Singapore Index, EWS
0.02% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.02% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.00% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.03% Global 100, IOO
-0.04% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.06% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.06% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.07% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.08% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.08% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.09% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.10% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.10% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.10% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.11% Energy Global, IXC
-0.12% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.13% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.13% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.14% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.14% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.14% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.15% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.17% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.17% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.17% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.17% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.17% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.18% Canada Index, EWC
-0.18% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.19% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.19% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.20% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.21% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.21% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.22% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.22% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.23% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.23% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.23% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.25% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.25% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.25% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.25% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.27% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.29% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.31% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.31% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.31% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.34% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.37% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.41% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.42% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.42% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.47% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.47% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.48% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.50% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.51% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.57% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.60% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.73% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.89% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.03% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.52% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.91% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.95% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
