The Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both fell below their 50-day SMAs on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Consumer Discretionary stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Consumer Staples stock sector ETF (XLP) absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Utilities stock sector ETF (XLU) absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
U.S. stock market price indexes opened below the lows of the past 4 weeks and never saw light of day on Thursday. A late-morning minor recovery attempt fizzled by 12:32 p.m. ET, as the bullish majority seemed reluctant to buy the dip–again. The market sagged lower all afternoon to close below the open, below the previous day’s close, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and very near the lowest levels of the day.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,661.32) closed below its lowest closes of the previous 5 weeks, down 1.43%. It is nearly unchanged over the past 3 months, which suggests a loss of upside price momentum. Short-term daily momentum is obviously bearish since SPX closed at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13.
Volume confirmed the price downtrend. NYSE total volume jumped 21% to a level 4% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE fell again on Thursday. Both closed below their lowest closes of the previous 5 weeks. In July and so far in August, both failed to rise above their May highs; the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13, but Volume and Breadth did not rise to higher highs. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence relative to the price indexes. In addition, the Net Number of New Highs-Lows turned deeply negative, after remaining far below its May high at the August price highs, thereby diverging bearishly as well.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), also remain bearishly divergent compared to price.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/13/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, however, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, however, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. In recent weeks, however, USO price has stalled out below its peak of 38.62 on 7/19/13. Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.62, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. GLD may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD price trend was bearish since price peaked at 185.85 on 9/6/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. SLV may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: SLV price trend was bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.00% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
5.25% , KSS , KOHLS
5.03% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
5.26% , KBH , KB HOME
2.48% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
5.29% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.77% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
5.69% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
3.42% , EL , Estee Lauder
2.21% , SWY , SAFEWAY
2.08% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
1.46% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2.88% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.97% , A , AGILENT TECH
3.45% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
2.09% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.60% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
5.49% , JCP , JC PENNEY
3.41% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3.39% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
5.12% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
2.81% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.06% , MON , MONSANTO
1.40% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
4.01% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.60% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.00% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.19% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
0.14% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.29% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.10% , MAS , MASCO
0.29% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
0.19% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.50% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-5.67% , MDP , MEREDITH
-5.65% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-1.40% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.69% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.63% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.43% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
-4.17% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.40% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.83% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-1.92% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-7.17% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-5.08% , GCI , GANNETT
-1.59% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-0.55% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.81% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-2.76% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-1.96% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-3.83% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-2.73% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-1.57% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-1.64% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-3.04% , WAT , WATERS
-1.73% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-1.52% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.91% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.72% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.38% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-1.47% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.98% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-3.73% , CR , CRANE
-2.33% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-2.61% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.03% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.09% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.46% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.95% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.65% , Canada Index, EWC
0.60% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.40% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.39% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.33% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.29% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.14% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.10% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.07% , Italy Index, EWI
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.00% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.08% , France Index, EWQ
-0.11% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.12% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.15% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.19% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.24% , Dividend International, PID
-0.25% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.34% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.36% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.41% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.42% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.45% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.48% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.49% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.49% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.50% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.51% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.51% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.51% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.52% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.52% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.52% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.55% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.55% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.55% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.66% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.70% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.71% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.71% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.72% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.73% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.74% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.74% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.76% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.76% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.76% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.80% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.81% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.85% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.90% , Global 100, IOO
-0.91% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.91% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.05% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.07% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.09% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.12% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.12% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.14% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.15% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.15% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.16% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.16% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.17% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.26% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.27% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.27% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.28% , India PS, PIN
-1.30% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-1.33% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-1.34% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.35% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.35% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.38% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.39% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.40% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.40% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.40% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.41% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.42% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.43% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.43% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.44% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-1.44% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.44% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.45% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.47% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.47% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.49% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.49% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.50% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.51% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.55% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.56% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.57% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.58% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.58% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.58% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.60% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.61% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.62% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.63% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.63% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.63% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-1.63% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.68% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.69% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.71% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.72% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.73% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.74% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.75% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.77% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.77% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.79% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.81% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.82% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.83% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.84% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.86% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.87% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.89% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.89% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.91% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.92% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.92% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.96% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-2.02% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.06% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.11% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-2.26% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.32% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.50% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.58% , Networking, IGN
-2.69% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.85% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013
1656.74, 50-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1548.71, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
