The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 3-months on 5/15/14.
NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 10 months on 5/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 10 months on 5/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected ETF (TIP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 10 months on 5/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,870.85, down 0.94%) absolute price gapped down on the open and fell further in the first 146 minutes, breaking down below the intraday lows of the previous 5 trading days. SPX recovered a modest fraction of the morning loss in the afternoon. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of the previous 6 trading days.
NYSE total volume rose 26% to a level 7% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 87 from 196 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index failed to rise to higher highs on 5/13/14 and continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/13/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed at new closing price highs. Such a confirmation suggests that significant stock market sectors are in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/7/14, thereby suggesting a significant downtrend. QQQ/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing so rapidly that a bearish crossover appears likely in weeks ahead. Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish or neutral since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 3-months on 5/15/14, crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, and remains systematically neutral.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price remains systematically neutral. Support: 122.84, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.16, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/8/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.01% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
4.20% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.42% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
6.01% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
1.89% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.84% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
1.26% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
1.78% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.56% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.90% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.86% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.89% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.08% , NCR , NCR
0.68% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.82% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
1.29% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.44% , DRI , DARDEN REST
0.46% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.57% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
0.52% , USB , US BANCORP
0.46% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.29% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.46% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.80% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.34% , AON , AON
1.06% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
0.21% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.41% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.24% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
0.35% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.50% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
0.18% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
0.11% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.99% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.98% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-6.12% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-5.16% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-3.30% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-3.03% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.33% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-1.17% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.95% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-3.99% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-0.92% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-4.58% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-3.14% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-2.79% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-1.28% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.09% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.89% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-2.98% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-2.43% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-2.30% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-1.92% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-2.44% , A , AGILENT TECH
-2.53% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-4.36% , NBR , NABORS
-0.57% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-2.42% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-2.79% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-2.07% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-4.68% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-0.97% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-2.78% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-2.47% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.79% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.90% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.80% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.57% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.52% , Networking, IGN
0.46% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.46% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.36% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.29% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.21% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.18% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.11% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.03% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.03% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.04% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.05% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.07% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.08% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.09% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.10% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.14% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.17% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.17% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.19% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.29% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.35% , India PS, PIN
-0.36% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.38% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.38% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.40% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.43% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.44% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.50% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.50% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.50% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.51% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.52% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.52% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.52% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.52% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.53% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.54% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.54% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.55% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.55% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.55% , Global 100, IOO
-0.56% , Dividend International, PID
-0.56% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.57% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.57% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.59% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.60% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.61% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.63% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.66% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.68% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.70% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.70% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.70% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.70% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.71% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.71% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.72% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.72% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.74% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.74% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.75% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.75% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.76% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.78% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.78% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.79% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.79% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.80% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.81% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.81% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.81% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.81% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.82% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.83% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.83% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.83% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.84% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.84% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.84% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.85% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.86% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.86% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.88% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.88% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.88% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.88% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.88% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.89% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.91% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.92% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.92% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.92% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.92% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.93% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.93% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.93% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.94% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.94% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.94% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.97% , France Index, EWQ
-0.98% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.98% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.01% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.02% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.04% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.05% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.09% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.10% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.12% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.14% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.14% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.16% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.17% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.19% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.21% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.28% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.31% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.32% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.37% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.37% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.40% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.41% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.42% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.42% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.49% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.54% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.55% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.67% , Austria Index, EWO
-2.10% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.16% , Spain Index, EWP
-2.53% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.61% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.03% , Italy Index, EWI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1867.86, 50-day SMA
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1785.73, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
