After getting slammed for the past several weeks, stocks finally scored a substantial round of gains. The major indices opened near the flat line, but buyers immediately stepped in, propelling the broad market higher in the morning. This time, unlike all the other recent rally attempts, the bulls remained in control into the afternoon session, enabling stocks to hold on to all their intraday gains. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite zoomed 3.1% higher, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average similarly climbed 2.8%. As they often do on strong rally days in the broad market, small and mid-cap stocks outperformed. The Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 Index jumped 3.6% and 3.5% respectively. For the first time in three weeks, each of the main stock market indexes closed at its high of the day.
Unfortunately for the bulls, one key ingredient missing from yesterday’s rally was higher volume in both exchanges. In the NYSE, total volume edged just 1% above the previous day’s level, while volume in the Nasdaq eased 3%. Increased volume across the board would have been an encouraging sign of institutional accumulation, but mutual funds, hedge funds, and other institutions apparently took a rather passive role yesterday. Understandably, the “smart money” may be looking for more price confirmation before stepping in to start buying again. Nevertheless, market internals were quite strong. In the NYSE, advancing volume trounced declining volume by a margin of 17 to 1. Such broad-based buying equated to 95% of the stocks in the S&P 500 registering a gain yesterday. The Nasdaq adv/dec volume ratio was less positive, at just under 8 to 1,but still firmly bullish.
Last week, we covered our United States Oil Fund (USO) short position for a quick profit, in anticipation of a short-term bounce alongside of the broad market. The expected bounce came yesterday, as USO gained 3.1%. Now, yesterday’s strong reversal may spark a 2 to 5 day rally that would carry USO into significant resistance of its 50-day moving average, as well as its prior highs from June. As such, we view the $34.50 to $35.00 area as a low-risk short entry point, as the price action should not push much higher than the 50-day moving average, plus some wiggle room. The downside price target for this swing trade setup would be an “undercut” of the May 25 low, around $30.00. The setup is illustrated on the chart below:
SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) is another short setup we are monitoring for potential entry within the next few days. Take a look:
Since mid-May, XRT has been showing relative weakness to the broad market. When the major indices set slightly higher “swing highs” in mid-June, XRT set a “lower high.” Then, when stocks began selling off in the latter half of June, XRT again showed leadership to the downside. Now, there is a quite a bit of price resistance clustered in the $37.50 – $38.50 range. As such, a bounce into that area provides a low-risk short entry point. The 200-day MA and declining 20-day EMA provide the first line of defense, around $37.50. There is also resistance from the prior lows and the downtrend line, around $38.00. The 50% and 61.8% Fibo levels, measured from the high of June 15, to the low of July 1, are at the $37.80 to $38.60 area as well. If XRT makes another leg down after bouncing, an “undercut” of the December and January lows appears to be a decent target, around the $33.50 – $34.00 range. In addition to USO and XRT, we’re still stalking GDX for short entry, SRS (a “short ETF”) for buy entry, and VXZ for long entry. If any of these ETFs meet our entry criteria, we’ll promptly send subscribers an Intraday Trade Alert with details of entry.
In the July 6 issue of The Wagner Daily, we said, “As stocks have closed lower in nine of the past ten sessions, it’s quite reasonable to expect at least a very short-term bounce going into this week. However, in the intermediate-term, the major indices are actually poised for resumption of their downtrends that began in April.” With the main stock market indexes moving higher in the first two days of this holiday-shortened week, we are indeed seeing the bounce we anticipated. But when the main stock market indexes broke down below key levels of horizontal price support last week, an abundance of overhead supply was left behind in its wake.
Because the major indices will likely have great difficulty moving back above their 50-day moving averages in the near future, we primarily view this counter-trend bounce as merely an opportunity to initiate new short positions with a better reward-risk ratio (it is also a second chance to undisciplined investors and traders to unload any losing positions that were not sold when they should have been). Very short-term traders may consider buying iShares Russell 2000 (IWM), which would likely lead the broad market if there is more buying interest, but the time horizon for such a trade should not be a hold time of more than 2 to 5 days. Overall, until price and volume action of the broad market proves otherwise, the path of least resistance, at least in the intermediate-term, is down.
Correction: In our July 7 commentary, while discussing ProShares Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS), we said, “If VXZ attempts to breakout and fails. . .’ The ticker symbol should have read “SRS,” rather than “VXZ.” We apologize for any confusion.
| Open ETF positions:
Long – DBA, TLT, UNG, UUP |
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Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to deron@morpheustrading.com.
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