Highlights based on trading on Thursday, June 14, 2012:

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 4 months.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 months, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,329.10) rose 14.22 points or 1.08% on Thursday. Prices were falling at the top of the final hour when, out of the blue, came a media report asserting that “Central banks from major economies stand ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the outcome of Greek elections on Sunday causes tumultuous trading,” according to unnamed G20 officials. What will they think of next?

NYSE volume rose 10%, confirming higher demand for stocks, for a change. Volume patterns generally have been bearish for months, with a tendency toward lower volume on rallies and higher volume on declines, indicating the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure. NYSE Cumulative Up-Down Volume still shows a bearish divergence: it remains below its 200-day SMA, while the S&P 500 price index remains above its 200-day SMA.

Short term, stocks have turned choppy and hesitant over the past 6 trading sessions, with the S&P 500 confined within a 30 point range, 1306 to 1336, based on intraday extremes. The bulls might argue that selling pressure has dissipated. The bears might call the recent choppy price action “consolidation of losses in a downtrend”.

The larger stock market trend still appears more bearish than bullish since the SPX peak at 1,422.38 on 4/2/12. The path of least resistance appears to be down. But with news and rumors of news, anything is possible.

For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 6/14/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. OEX/SPX remains systematically bullish above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 6/13/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Systematically, IWM/SPY returned to bearish status again on 4/20/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been relatively weak for more than a year, since 4/5/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 6/14/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. MDY/SPY turned systematically bearish on 6/6/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. MDY/SPY remains below its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sentiment for Contrary Thinking

Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency at the February to May 2012 market highs. That was bearish because when the majority of investors has been bullish for some time, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean. Some of the most recent data suggests that investors’ sentiment may be beginning to shift away from bullish complacency. The evidence is mixed, however, and there still is plenty of room for the pendulum of emotion to swing too far in the direction of bearish excess.

AAII Sentiment: There were 51.64% Bulls and 20.19% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/9/12. This was the highest level of bullish sentiment in more than a year, since 52.34% Bulls on 1/13/11. As of 6/14/12, however, sentiment had moderated, with 34.04% Bulls and 35.79% Bears.

Investors Intelligence Sentiment: according to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors, there were 37.2% Bulls and 26.6% Bears reported on 6/13/12. This represents a moderation in sentiment from 2012 extremes of 54.8% Bulls reported on 2/15/11 and 20.4% Bears reported on 5/9/12.

VIX Fear Index fell steeply to 19.63 intraday on 6/11/12, down from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This suggests a rapid shift from concern toward bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1349.57, 50-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1,291.18, 200-day SMA
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price has pulled back but remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.63, 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.02, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/4/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 6/11/12. USO turned systematically bearish on 6/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. USO remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.80, 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/13/12, turning systematically neutral. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/1/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/4/12, reconfirming its downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/8/12. JJC turned bearish on 5/31/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

14.37% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
1.43% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
1.61% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.91% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.91% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.54% , PMR , Retail, PMR
3.66% , APA , APACHE
5.44% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.23% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
0.75% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
3.95% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
4.32% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
1.94% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
4.27% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
0.63% , DVY , Dividend DJ Select, DVY
6.06% , KR , KROGER
2.75% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
1.71% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.28% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
0.88% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.23% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
7.96% , SVU , SUPERVALU
6.07% , KBH , KB HOME
0.58% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
1.30% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.26% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.45% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
0.36% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
1.61% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.55% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
1.00% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
0.80% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.07% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-3.65% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
-4.30% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-4.64% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-0.50% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.29% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-2.46% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-4.18% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-0.87% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.55% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-1.32% , EMC , EMC
-1.13% , IR , INGER RAND
-1.21% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-2.02% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-0.40% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.96% , TIF , TIFFANY
-0.49% , BCR , C R BARD
-2.48% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-0.68% , LM , LEGG MASON
-0.78% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-1.00% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.27% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.25% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.68% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.55% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.03% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-0.31% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-1.01% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
-0.45% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-0.52% , DOV , DOVER
-0.41% , ORCL , ORACLE
-0.65% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-2.16% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.56% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.55% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.34% Italy Index, EWI
2.34% Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.03% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.71% Spain Index, EWP
1.67% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.62% Energy DJ, IYE
1.61% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.59% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.57% Belgium Index, EWK
1.57% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.50% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.49% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.48% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.46% Mexico Index, EWW
1.46% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.38% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.37% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.36% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.34% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.33% Russia MV, RSX
1.32% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.32% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.30% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.30% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.30% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.29% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.28% Global 100, IOO
1.28% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.26% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.23% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.22% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.21% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.19% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.18% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.18% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.18% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.17% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.16% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.15% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.14% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.13% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.12% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.12% South Korea Index, EWY
1.09% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.08% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.07% France Index, EWQ
1.07% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.06% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.06% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.05% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.04% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.04% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.03% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.02% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.01% European VIPERs, VGK
1.01% Austria Index, EWO
1.01% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.01% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.00% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.00% Energy Global, IXC
0.97% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.95% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.92% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.90% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.90% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.88% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.87% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.86% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.85% Japan Index, EWJ
0.83% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.82% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.80% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.78% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.78% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.76% EAFE Index, EFA
0.75% Water Resources, PHO
0.75% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.75% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.73% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.71% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.70% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.70% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.69% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.68% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.68% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.65% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.65% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.64% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.64% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.63% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.62% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.59% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.59% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.59% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.57% Germany Index, EWG
0.56% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.54% Australia Index, EWA
0.51% Canada Index, EWC
0.50% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.50% Dividend International, PID
0.50% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.45% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.42% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.41% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.40% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.38% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.37% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.36% Sweden Index, EWD
0.34% South Africa Index, EZA
0.32% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.26% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.26% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.25% Singapore Index, EWS
0.24% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.22% China 25 iS, FXI
0.22% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.22% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.16% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.16% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.15% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.09% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.01% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.07% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.12% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.13% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.13% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.19% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.22% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.24% India PS, PIN
-0.27% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.31% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.45% Networking, IGN
-0.46% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.68% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.87% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.00% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH