The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,225.73) absolute fell below the lows of the previous 8 trading days on 12/13/11 and closed down by 0.87%. Similar weakness was confirmed by most other indexes.

Short-term price momentum oscillators have given bearish divergence warning by stalling out and rolling downward after peaking on 11/30/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 12/13/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/13/11. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 10 months on 12/13/11 and looks bullish.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/13/11 and and broke down below its 50-day SMA on 12/12/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 8 weeks on 12/13/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

There is a strategy that gained over the past 6 months, while most other strategies lost —
NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.

The Colby Global Markets Report
(click here for a no-risk free trial)

Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Stock Market Indicators

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,225.73) absolute fell below the lows of the previous 8 trading days on 12/13/11 and closed down by 0.87%. Similar weakness was confirmed by most other indexes.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1267.06, high of 12/7/2011
1262.46, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 12/7/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite is below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/12/11. BKF/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/12/11. EEM/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/13/11. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 12/13/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 70.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 29.5% Bears as of 12/7/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. This is the most optimism in nearly 4 months. The 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index, now at 25.41, fell steeply from an intraday peak of 30.91 on 12/8/11, indicating a shift away from fear and toward confidence. Longer term, VIX is down from a peak of 48.00 set on 8/8/11. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) is in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.05 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) is in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.43 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a downtrend since 2/8/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. TIP/IEF is below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 10 months on 12/13/11 and looks bullish. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and remains bullishly above both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.62.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/12/11, thereby confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 9 trading days on 12/12/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.79, 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/13/11 and and broke down below its 50-day SMA on 12/12/11. Previously, I warned that a break below last week’s low at 165.53 would be bearish for the short term. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) is bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/13/11. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11, and SLV remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 29.83, 29.14, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 9 trading days on 12/13/11. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.33% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.49% , GAS , NICOR
1.66% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.93% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.69% , LLY , ELI LILLY
1.11% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
0.70% , MBI , MBIA
1.81% , PFE , PFIZER
2.13% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.55% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.25% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B
1.04% , CI , CIGNA
1.17% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
1.74% , NI , NISOURCE
0.54% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.76% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
0.84% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.93% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
2.12% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.07% , RAI , Reynolds American
1.56% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
2.81% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
0.83% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.98% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
0.34% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
1.89% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
2.04% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.26% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.61% , EP , EL PASO
0.92% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.11% , PPH , Pharmaceutical H, PPH
1.05% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
0.75% , RF , REGIONS FINAN

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-15.46% , BBY , BEST BUY
-2.17% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-7.18% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.65% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-2.16% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-6.09% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-2.11% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-3.55% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-5.56% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-0.40% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.85% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-1.50% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-4.75% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-7.26% , HAR , Harman International
-4.50% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-4.67% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-1.59% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.09% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-2.71% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-1.05% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-3.78% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-2.25% , CSX , CSX
-2.47% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-5.61% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.15% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-1.56% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.86% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-3.01% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-4.25% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-0.89% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-3.92% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-4.10% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-2.25% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.93% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.66% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.93% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.92% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.61% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.55% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.46% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.41% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.40% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.37% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.34% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.27% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.20% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.17% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.14% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.06% India PS, PIN
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.10% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.11% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.18% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.19% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.22% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.26% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.27% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.27% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.38% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.38% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.40% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.44% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.47% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.49% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.50% Russia MV, RSX
-0.51% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.55% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.57% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.61% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.61% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.75% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.77% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.78% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.80% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.80% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.82% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.82% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.84% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.84% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.85% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.88% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.92% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.92% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.93% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.93% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.93% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.93% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.95% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.96% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.01% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.03% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.04% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.04% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.05% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.05% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.06% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.06% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.07% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.07% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.07% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.07% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.09% Global 100, IOO
-1.10% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.11% Energy Global, IXC
-1.11% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.17% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.20% Australia Index, EWA
-1.21% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.21% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.21% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.23% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.24% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.24% Dividend International, PID
-1.26% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.29% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.32% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.32% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.35% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.38% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.41% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.42% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.43% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.44% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.46% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.46% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.50% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.53% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.53% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.55% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.56% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.56% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.58% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.59% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.59% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.63% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.67% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.67% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.68% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.69% Networking, IGN
-1.70% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.71% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.72% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.78% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.81% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.84% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.84% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.91% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.92% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.96% Canada Index, EWC
-1.96% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.98% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.99% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.03% Water Resources, PHO
-2.07% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.08% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.13% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.16% Austria Index, EWO
-2.18% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.19% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.20% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.21% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.34% Germany Index, EWG
-2.38% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.54% Italy Index, EWI
-2.56% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.64% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.67% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.69% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.80% France Index, EWQ
-3.40% Spain Index, EWP
-3.49% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.55% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.65% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME

dex, IEV
-3.53% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-3.54% Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.64% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.75% China 25 iS, FXI
-3.76% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.92% France Index, EWQ
-3.93% European VIPERs, VGK
-4.05% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.18% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-4.19% Spain Index, EWP
-4.26% Sweden Index, EWD
-4.50% South Africa Index, EZA
-4.76% Germany Index, EWG
-4.79% Russia MV, RSX
-4.91% Italy Index, EWI
-5.00% Austria Index, EWO
-5.18% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-5.48% India PS, PIN