S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,280.10) rose 11.65 points or 0.92% on Monday 6/27/11. Bounces of a percentage point or two are fairly common but not significant. There has not been a bounce of 3% or greater in 8 weeks. SPX remains in a significant intermediate-term downtrend.

Trading volume on the NYSE fell 32% below Friday’s pace and was 20% below the 200-day SMA. Low and falling volume raises doubts about the significance of any rally attempt.

Energy SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down below 5-week lows. The Ratio has been weak since peaking on 3/30/11.

Crude Oil price broke down below the lows of the past 4 months, reconfirming a significant downtrend.

Gold and Silver both broke down below the lows of the past 5 weeks, confirming preexisting short-term downtrends. The Metals Bears now have momentum on their side.

Silver/Gold Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 4 months, reconfirming a preexisting downtrend for the medium term. The Ratio entered a steep downtrend since the peak on 4/28/11 and remains bearish.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.68% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
2.89% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
1.06% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.97% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
1.19% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
1.64% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.06% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.21% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
3.00% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.41% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
2.05% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.64% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
0.47% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
4.52% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.75% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.83% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
2.13% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.54% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
0.75% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
0.74% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
3.14% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
1.00% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
1.43% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
1.21% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
1.05% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
3.61% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
4.56% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
0.77% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
1.52% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.91% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
3.59% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
0.80% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.10% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.68% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-3.94% , MOLX , MOLEX
-2.10% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.72% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-3.30% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-2.12% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-1.47% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-2.14% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-0.49% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.49% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-0.18% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-1.67% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.79% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-4.80% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-0.60% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-0.80% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-1.37% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.62% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.86% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.03% , GLW , CORNING
-1.00% , NBR , NABORS
-0.33% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.44% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.34% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.32% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.78% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.79% , TLAB , TELLABS
-0.84% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.39% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.36% , MON , MONSANTO
-0.02% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.08% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.16% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength — Now available by subscription at a 33% discount:
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 10/14/10. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 11/27/07. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio entered a downside correction since peaking on 1/18/11. The Ratio fell below 8-month lows on 6/20/11. Absolute price closed below 6-month closing price lows on 6/17/11. The NASDAQ Advance-Decline Line fell below the lows of the previous 9-months on 6/17/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price closed below its 12-week lows and its 200-day SMA on 6/24/11.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) broke down further below 4-month lows on 6/13/11 and has been in a downside correction since 4/5/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 11-week highs on 6/24/11. Price, however, remains stuck in a neutral trading range.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price broke down below the lows of the past 4 months on 6/27/11, reconfirming a significant downtrend. Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed hedge-fund and other money managers increased net long positions in Oil–which could prove to be bearish when this hot money rushes for the exits. On 5/3/11, when Crude Oil was 111.56, I wrote, “Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 5/3/11, suggesting a short-term price pullback.” Support 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 103.39, 104.60, 105.16, 114.83, 115.27, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.

Gold nearest futures contract price broke down below the lows of the past 5 weeks on 6/27/11, reconfirming a preexisting short-term downtrend. The Bears now have momentum on their side. On 6/9/11, when Gold was 1542.7, I noted that Gold “appears to have stalled out since 6/6/11. Gold’s 5-week countertrend bounce might be weakening. Reward/Risk does not appear attractive. It seems possible that Gold has finally topped out at 1577.4 after rising 132% from 681 in October, 2008.” Support: 1462.5, 1445.0, 1411.5, 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1559.3 and 1577.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell further below 27-month lows on 6/17/11. The Ratio has been falling steeply since 4/8/11 and remains bearish. GDX is offering a bearish divergence relative to GLD, and that might be taken as a warning about prospects for GLD, Gold futures, bullion, and coins.

Silver nearest futures contract price broke down below the lows of the past 5 weeks on 6/27/11, confirming a short-term downtrend. The Bears now have momentum on their side. Silver fell 35% from 49.82 on 4/25/11 to 32.3 on 5/12/11, breaking down below 10-week lows. On 5/2/11, when Silver was 46.084, I wrote, “Silver nearest futures contract price broke sharply below the lows of the previous 2 weeks. The short-term price trend has turned down. If this downtrend continues, it could have implications for inflation expectations.” Support 32.3, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 36.77, 37.86, 38.845, 39.38, 39.47, 49.82, 49.845 and 50.35.

Silver/Gold Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 4 months in 6/27/11, reconfirming a preexisting downtrend for the medium term. The Ratio entered a steep downtrend since the peak on 4/28/11 and remains bearish.

Copper nearest futures contract price has been trading choppy/sideways for the past few weeks. Longer term, Copper broke down below previous 5-month lows on 5/12/11, confirming an intermediate-term correction, if not a bear market. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook. Support 3.9505, 3.8535, 3.846, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.2125, 4.402, 4.533, 4.554, 4.6495, 4.6535, and 4.6575.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 2 trading days on Monday, possibly suggesting a minor price pulled back. The Bond broke out above the highs of the previous 7 months on 6/24/11, thereby reconfirming a significant uptrend. In its favor, nearly everyone has been talking bearish on Bonds this year, so the Bond is rising up off an extreme oversold condition. Support 125.07, 123.23, 123.18, 120.20, 119.15, 117.28, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 127.19, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) broke further below 9-month lows on 6/16/11. Absolute price of JNK also broke down below 9-month lows on 6/16/11. Both confirm a bearish trend for JNK.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 6/20/11, again reconfirming a significant downtrend. TIP/IEF entered a downtrend after peaking on 4/8/11. This downtrend means that fixed-income investors prefer the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. Inflation expectations are still waning.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price pulled back moderately on Monday after rising above the highs of the previous 4 trading days on 6/24/11. USD closed above the highs of the past 3 weeks on 6/16/11, which was a bullish indication for the short-term trend. In addition, the larger trend of the USD has been firming since making the low at 73.325 on 5/2/11. Support 73.88, 73.515, 73.325, 72.86, and 70.80. Resistance 76.54, 76.87, 76.98, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 37.6% Bulls versus 28.0% Bears as of 6/22/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio fell to 1.34, which is moderately below normal, with a 20-year range of 0.41 to 3.74, a median of 1.56, and a mean of 1.64. Note that Advisory Service Sentiment as of 4/6/11 peaked at 3.65, its highest level in 8 years. The market has been working off that excess by correcting to the downside.

VIX Fear Index rose above 3-month highs to 22.73 on 6/16/11, indicating a relatively modest uptick in fear. For comparison, there was a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.

As of the close on June 6, 2011, the Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction (a significant downside correction) for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 10-week lows. Previously, as of June 1, 2011, the Dow Theory gave a warning of a significant downside correction for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 5-week lows.

On 5/2/11, when the S&P 500 Composite (SPX) was 1,358.59, I warned, “The majority of major stock price indexes opened higher on gaps but reversed to close with losses on the day. This may signal exhaustion of the short-term uptrend. Sentiment indicators have been suggesting that the stock market may be over loved and overbought. And in view of the sharp reversals in the metal commodities, the so-called “inflation trade”, when speculators buy stocks and sell fixed-income instruments based on expectations of rising price levels for goods and services, may be on thin ice.”

Based on the daily SPX, momentum indicators gave bearish divergence warnings in April; that is, they never made it back to their February peaks when the price indexes rose to higher highs.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,280.10) rose 11.65 points or 0.92% on Monday 6/27/11.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1346.82, high of 5/19/11
1298.61, high of 6/22/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

3.00% Sweden Index, EWD
2.05% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.02% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.96% Italy Index, EWI
1.71% China 25 iS, FXI
1.65% India PS, PIN
1.64% Spain Index, EWP
1.59% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.44% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.41% European VIPERs, VGK
1.38% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.37% France Index, EWQ
1.35% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.34% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.33% Networking, IGN
1.30% Russia MV, RSX
1.29% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.23% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.22% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.19% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.16% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.11% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.07% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.06% Germany Index, EWG
1.06% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.04% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.02% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.00% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.00% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.98% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.97% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.97% Belgium Index, EWK
0.95% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.92% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.92% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.91% South Africa Index, EZA
0.90% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.90% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.89% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.89% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.88% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.87% Global 100, IOO
0.85% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.85% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.84% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.84% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.84% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.84% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.83% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.82% EAFE Index, EFA
0.82% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.82% Energy Global, IXC
0.80% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.80% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.80% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.79% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.79% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.79% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.79% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.79% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.79% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.78% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.78% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.77% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.75% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.75% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.74% Mexico Index, EWW
0.73% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.72% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.72% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.72% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.71% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.71% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.71% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.68% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.68% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.65% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.62% South Korea Index, EWY
0.62% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.59% Water Resources, PHO
0.59% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.58% Dividend International, PID
0.57% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.57% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.56% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.54% Energy DJ, IYE
0.54% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.54% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.54% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.54% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.53% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.52% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.51% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.51% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.50% Canada Index, EWC
0.49% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.47% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.46% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.46% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.45% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.43% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.42% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.42% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.41% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.37% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.33% Austria Index, EWO
0.31% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.29% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.28% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.24% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.23% Singapore Index, EWS
0.21% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.17% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.10% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.09% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.06% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.05% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.02% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.02% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.04% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.09% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.16% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.16% Australia Index, EWA
-0.18% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.28% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.32% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.33% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.36% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.39% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.44% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.47% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.49% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.79% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.01% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.37% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.19% Silver Trust iS, SLV