The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,405.53) rose 1.60 points or 0.11% on Wednesday, another indecisive Inside Day.
SPX is demonstrating a clear loss of momentum. Short-term momentum oscillators have failed to rise above their June-July highs to confirm the S&P 500 rise above its June-July highs.
NYSE volume fell 10%, denying confirmation of Wednesday’s slight price upturn. Volume has been running near the lowest levels of the year since 8/8/12, possibly reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks, as well as summer vacations. On-Balance Volume for the SPX remains in a downtrend with bearish divergence. NYSE Cumulative Volume of Advancing Stocks minus Volume of Declining Stocks remains weak relative to price. Volume has not been confirming the price up move.
It takes volume to push prices up. After the shorts have been forced to cover and the longs have had their fill of buying, in the absence of a fresh source of demand, stocks fall of their own weight.
With the stock price indexes far above their 4-year lows and very close to the top end of their 4-year price range, downside risk may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Investors Intelligence Sentiment has shifted toward bullish confidence since May. According to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors reported on 8/15/12, there were 43.6% Bulls and 26.6% Bears. Advisors consistently have been demonstrating above-average bullish sentiment since 1/4/12.
VIX Fear Index fell to 13.67 intraday on 8/13/12, its lowest level since 3/16/12. VIX fell from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This large drop suggests a shift from worried concern to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1410.03, high of 8/14/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1357.16, 50-day SMA
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1328.39, 200-day SMA
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) looks to be consolidating short term, since peaking at 30.44 on 7/30/12. DBA is systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/13/12. High food prices could bring trouble for the general economy because more consumer spending for food means less consumer spending available for other goods and services.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.37, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again for the short term. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. Short term, SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish again when it fell below (although only slightly below) its 50-day SMA on 8/15/12. SLV/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/13/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC fell to its lowest level in 8 months on 8/2/12, thereby confirming its major bearish trend. JJC price remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since 12/31/10. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this relative weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.65% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
8.02% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
4.03% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
0.90% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
5.62% , UIS , UNISYS
3.60% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
0.97% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.32% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
0.65% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
2.59% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
2.54% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.24% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
0.54% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.77% , TGT , TARGET
1.04% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.67% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
2.85% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
2.25% , FDX , FEDEX
0.70% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
1.50% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
1.54% , HUM , HUMANA
2.77% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
1.18% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
0.60% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
3.03% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
1.58% , FAST , Fastenal Company
1.67% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
1.52% , BLL , BALL
2.51% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
0.10% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
0.13% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
1.29% , WAT , WATERS
1.86% , ZION , ZIONS
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-14.60% , SPLS , STAPLES
-6.28% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.79% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.88% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.65% , MDP , MEREDITH
-3.13% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-0.67% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-2.12% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-3.08% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.21% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.15% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.96% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-0.15% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.47% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.12% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-0.97% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-1.41% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.74% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.91% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-1.05% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-0.88% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-1.74% , ETR , ENTERGY
-0.20% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-1.19% , X , US STEEL CORP
-0.53% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-0.75% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-1.16% , KR , KROGER
-0.57% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.82% , ED , CON ED
-0.93% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.87% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-1.00% , BA , BOEING
-1.20% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.71% Networking, IGN
1.27% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.21% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.19% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.15% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.97% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.93% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.92% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.90% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.88% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.87% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.87% Mexico Index, EWW
0.86% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.84% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.79% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.77% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.72% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.72% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.72% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.71% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.70% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.69% Water Resources, PHO
0.69% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.64% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.57% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.56% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.55% Canada Index, EWC
0.54% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.51% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.50% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.49% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.47% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.46% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.44% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.43% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.41% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.40% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.40% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.38% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.37% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.36% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.34% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.33% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.33% Spain Index, EWP
0.32% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.31% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.31% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.31% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.29% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.28% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.28% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.27% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.25% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.24% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.23% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.23% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.23% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.22% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.22% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.22% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.21% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.19% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.18% Italy Index, EWI
0.17% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.17% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.17% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.17% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.13% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.11% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.11% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.10% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.10% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.09% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.07% Dividend International, PID
0.06% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.06% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.05% Energy Global, IXC
0.05% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.04% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.03% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.03% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.03% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.03% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.02% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.00% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.02% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.02% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.06% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.09% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.10% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.13% Global 100, IOO
-0.13% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.14% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.15% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.16% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.16% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.17% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.18% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.20% France Index, EWQ
-0.21% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.21% Austria Index, EWO
-0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.21% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.22% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.23% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.23% India PS, PIN
-0.25% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.26% Australia Index, EWA
-0.26% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.27% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.27% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.29% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.32% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.34% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.36% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.36% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.37% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.38% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.39% Russia MV, RSX
-0.43% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.47% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.48% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.48% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.50% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.53% Germany Index, EWG
-0.54% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.55% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.57% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.74% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.77% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.82% Singapore Index, EWS
