Stocks reacted bullishly–but they remain below May highs.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral.

U.S. stock indexes remain in short-term, minor uptrends. They opened higher again on Thursday and added to gains in the afternoon to close above their opening prices, above their highest levels of the previous 7 weeks, above their 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and above previous resistance based on Fibonacci ratios of the May-June decline.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,675.02) finished higher by 1.36%. The next SPX resistance is at 1,687.18, the SPX intraday high of 5/22/2013.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE rose further above its 50-day SMA but remains well below its May high.

The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE rose further above its 50-day SMA but remains below its May high.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction on 6/21/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed below their price lows of the previous 7 weeks. Previously, on 5/28/13, the Dow Theory warned of a non-confirmation, bearish divergence when the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high–and that exact same thing happened again on 7/11/13. A Secondary Reaction is often significant in extent and duration, possibly retracing a substantial fraction of the previous move over a period lasting several months.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically neutral again (from bearish) on 7/10/13, when it crossed back up above its own 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 12-year high on 7/11/13 to confirm its 4-year uptrend.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price broke out above its highs of the previous 14 months on 7/10/13 but fell back into its trading range the very next day. This raises the possibility of a false breakout. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.64, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
11.81% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
10.19% , CIEN.O , CIENA
6.04% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
9.17% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
5.28% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
6.38% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
8.33% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.82% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
4.93% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
2.79% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
3.74% , LM , LEGG MASON
4.47% , MAS , MASCO
7.20% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
5.41% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
3.61% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
4.11% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
3.74% , PCAR , PACCAR
3.43% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
3.45% , JCP , JC PENNEY
3.91% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
7.04% , KBH , KB HOME
6.30% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
3.65% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
1.53% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
3.24% , HES , AMERADA HESS
1.35% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
2.78% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
5.24% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
1.76% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.72% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
4.64% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.51% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
3.29% , FLR , FLUOR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.07% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.18% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-2.03% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.15% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-2.14% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-1.43% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.26% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-2.47% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-2.27% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.35% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-1.87% , KEY , KEYCORP
-1.08% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.19% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-0.39% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-1.74% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-0.69% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.63% , BBT , BB&T
-0.43% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-0.85% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-1.69% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-0.02% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.12% , STT , STATE STREET
-0.10% , MET , METLIFE
-0.02% , AET , AETNA
-1.68% , ZION , ZIONS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
8.20% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
7.06% , Indonesia MV, IDX
5.47% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
5.41% , South Korea Index, EWY
5.24% , China 25 iS, FXI
4.93% , Russia MV, RSX
4.89% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
4.64% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
4.44% , Singapore Index, EWS
4.33% , India PS, PIN
4.30% , South Africa Index, EZA
4.11% , Taiwan Index, EWT
3.59% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.51% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
3.50% , Austria Index, EWO
3.42% , Brazil Index, EWZ
3.41% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
3.27% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.24% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
3.18% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
3.15% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
3.14% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
3.10% , Sweden Index, EWD
3.05% , Germany Index, EWG
2.97% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
2.95% , Japan Index, EWJ
2.93% , Canada Index, EWC
2.86% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.83% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.82% , Belgium Index, EWK
2.79% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.76% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
2.72% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.72% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.71% , Australia Index, EWA
2.69% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.67% , European VIPERs, VGK
2.59% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
2.58% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
2.57% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.56% , France Index, EWQ
2.53% , Spain Index, EWP
2.48% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
2.48% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.46% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
2.42% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.40% , Switzerland Index, EWL
2.30% , Mexico Index, EWW
2.29% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.24% , Networking, IGN
2.24% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.21% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
2.21% , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.19% , Malaysia Index, EWM
2.17% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.17% , Dividend International, PID
2.15% , Italy Index, EWI
2.14% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.02% , Global 100, IOO
1.99% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.87% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.77% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.76% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.76% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
1.73% , Energy Global, IXC
1.72% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.70% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.69% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.67% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.63% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.62% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.61% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.59% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.57% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.54% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.53% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.52% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.51% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.47% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.46% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.45% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.45% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.43% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.41% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.40% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.39% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.38% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.38% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.36% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.36% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.35% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.35% , Water Resources, PHO
1.32% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.30% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.30% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.29% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.29% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.28% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.28% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.28% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.27% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.26% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
1.24% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.23% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.23% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.23% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.21% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.18% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.18% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
1.18% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.18% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.18% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.14% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.13% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
1.12% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.09% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.08% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.06% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.05% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.02% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.00% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.96% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.95% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.95% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.94% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.93% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.93% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.91% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.91% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.91% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.80% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.70% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.69% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.67% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.56% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.51% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.50% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.37% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.08% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-1.12% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.43% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1674.21, high of 5/28/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1630.97, 50-day SMA
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1517.74, 200-day SMA
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009