Stocks Rise 3 Days–But Breadth and Volume Fail To Confirm

US political news continues to whipsaw the markets mercilessly.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish).

Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/14/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral).

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,710.14, up 0.41%) absolute price opened lower on Monday but reversed toward the upside after the first minute of trading. Stock prices worked their way higher during the session, helped by reports that leading lawmakers are “very optimistic” that an agreement to avoid default will be reached this week. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, very near its highest level of the day, and above its closing levels of the previous 16 trading days.

SPX turned systematically bullish (from neutral) last Thursday 10/10/13 by closing above its 50-day SMA. SPX remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50 remains above the 200. Subjectively, the SPX trend still looks uncertain for the short-term, day-to-day trend and no better than neutral for the medium term, since its May high. Momentum divergences, shrinking volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and politics remain major obstacles to a sustainable upside trend.

NYSE total volume fell 12% to a level 30% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both are now systematically bullish again, above 50- and 200-day day SMAs. Both continue to lag the S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index, however. When the S&P 500 rose above its highs of the previous 16 trading days on Monday 10/14/13, neither indicator was able to rise above its highs of the previous 16 trading days. This was another demonstration of bearish divergence, which does not support probabilities of a sustainable stock market uptrend.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The day-to-day Minor Ripple trend has turned uncertain since.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to its highest level in 11 months on 10/1/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 4-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/3/13 and rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/24/13 and rose above its highs of the past 27 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

 

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/3/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically neutral on 8/26/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, DBA price has been in a cyclical bear market since peaking at 35.58 on 3/4/11. In addition, DBA has been in a secular bear market since peaking at 43.50 on 2/27/2008.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 36.82, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/9/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 19.88, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.82% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
3.66% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.58% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.69% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
2.86% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
0.58% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
0.61% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
1.97% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
1.41% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.74% , PIN , India PS, PIN
3.04% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
1.15% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.15% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
0.38% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.43% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
1.73% , CIEN.O , CIENA
0.72% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.06% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.88% , AES , AES
1.83% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
0.16% , DVY , Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.66% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.90% , GCI , GANNETT
0.89% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
2.19% , PFE , PFIZER
0.60% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.84% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
0.41% , EFX , EQUIFAX
0.86% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
1.58% , SVU , SUPERVALU
0.48% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
0.80% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
0.38% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.50% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.64% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-1.71% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-2.39% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-0.54% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-2.05% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.14% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-1.11% , PPL , PPL
-0.32% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-1.05% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-0.86% , COH , COACH
-0.82% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.36% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.45% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-0.87% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-0.24% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.70% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.22% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.32% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
-0.86% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.91% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-0.25% , NCR , NCR
-0.44% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.53% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-0.82% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.20% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-0.03% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.53% , ED , CON ED
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.04% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.74% , India PS, PIN
1.53% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.41% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.35% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.08% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.99% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.91% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.91% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.86% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.79% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.75% , Energy Global, IXC
0.75% , Networking, IGN
0.72% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.71% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.68% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.66% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.66% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.65% , Spain Index, EWP
0.65% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.65% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.64% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.63% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.61% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.61% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.60% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.60% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.59% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.58% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.58% , Global 100, IOO
0.57% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.56% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.55% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.54% , Russia MV, RSX
0.53% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.52% , Italy Index, EWI
0.52% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.52% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.50% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.49% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.48% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.47% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.46% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.46% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.46% , Dividend International, PID
0.46% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.44% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.44% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.43% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.42% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.42% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.42% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.41% , Austria Index, EWO
0.41% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.41% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.41% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.41% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.41% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.40% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.40% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.39% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.39% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.38% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.38% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.38% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.38% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.38% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.37% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.37% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.37% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.36% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.36% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.35% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.35% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.34% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.34% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.34% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.34% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.33% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.33% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.32% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.32% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.32% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.32% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.32% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.31% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.31% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.31% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.30% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.29% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.29% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.29% , France Index, EWQ
0.26% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.25% , Germany Index, EWG
0.25% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.24% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.24% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.21% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.21% , Canada Index, EWC
0.21% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.20% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.19% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.19% , Australia Index, EWA
0.19% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.18% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.16% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.16% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.16% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.15% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.14% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.13% , Water Resources, PHO
0.12% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.12% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.11% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.06% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.03% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.04% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.05% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.07% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.10% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.10% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.12% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.19% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.29% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.30% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.31% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.33% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.36% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.44% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.54% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.54% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.65% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.79% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.80% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1678.42, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1603.62, 200-day SMA
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009