Small- and mid-cap stock price indexes both fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks, again confirming a short-term uptrend.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks, confirming an uptrend. Silver also appears to have emerged on the bullish side of a 2-month Triangle Consolidation.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks, thereby confirming a short-term minor uptrend.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks, again confirming a significant downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,331.94) fell 5.49 points or 0.41% on Tuesday, July 26, 2011. SPX broke down below the lows of the previous 2 trading days. Sensitive momentum indicators rolled over after showing bearish divergences.
As of the close on July 21, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above its closing prices of the previous 2 months but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to confirm a similar breakout above its recent trading range.
As I have been saying, “For the medium term, a complex Dow Theory Secondary Reaction probably is still unfolding during the historically weak, ‘Sell in May, and go away’ season.”
There is a strategy that gained over the past 2 months, while most other strategies lost; see:
The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
19.86% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
17.65% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
2.03% , SWH , Software H, SWH
10.89% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
7.17% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
10.51% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
10.98% , TLAB , TELLABS
3.38% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
9.42% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
2.88% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
3.90% , CMI , CUMMINS
6.92% , SVU , SUPERVALU
3.39% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.57% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.54% , SNV , SYNOVUS
3.38% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
2.29% , SPLS , STAPLES
1.07% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.92% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
2.50% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.89% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
0.47% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
2.58% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
1.54% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
8.70% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
1.55% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
1.47% , AN , AUTONATION
1.95% , QLGC , QLOGIC
0.58% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.74% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
0.23% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.96% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.50% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.08% , WAT , WATERS
-10.68% , PCAR , PACCAR
-12.09% , UIS , UNISYS
-8.29% , X , US STEEL CORP
-8.19% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-3.92% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
-5.41% , MMM , 3M
-3.32% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-5.11% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.14% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-3.36% , A , AGILENT TECH
-3.46% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
-3.03% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-3.53% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-4.27% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-2.71% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-3.09% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-3.51% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-3.01% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-3.21% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-3.56% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-0.40% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-3.14% , MAS , MASCO
-4.82% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-1.75% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.14% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.61% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-0.43% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-2.37% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-2.70% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.32% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-3.09% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-2.25% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 Major U.S. Stock Sectors
ranked in order of long-term relative strength
Major trend rankings are available by subscription–
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below 7-week lows on 7/12/11 after trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 10/14/10. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 4-month lows on 7/19/11. The Ratio has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 11/27/07, so this is a major long-term bearish trend. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio appears to be stalling out below its high set on 1/18/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish. Absolute price peaked on 5/2/11 at 2,887.75 (intraday) and appears to be turning down again below that high.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 4 months on 7/25/11, suggesting a medium-term recovery. But OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming its preexisting bearish long-term major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below 5-week lows on 7/26/11. Although IWM/SPY appears bearish for the short term, the long-term trend remains bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below 5-week lows on 7/26/11. Although MDY/SPY appears bearish for the short term, the long-term trend remains bullish.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 7/25/11, suggesting a short-term price pullback. DBA may be forming a bearish Descending Triangle Top Reversal Pattern since its high at 35.58 set on 3/4/11. Support 32.35, 32.23, 31.65, 31.46. Resistance 33.42, 34.83, and 35.58.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 7/26/11, again confirming a short-term uptrend. The major trend for USO might be described best as neutral, since USO is trading at the same price levels it traded at in the summer of 2009. Support 36.93 and 35.14. Resistance 40.74 and 46.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above previous all-time price highs on 7/25/11, reconfirming a major long-term uptrend. In a world of too much debt and weak currencies, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only true-forever money. Support: 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative (to the Gold bullion ETF) Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned back down again on 7/25/11. GDX fell below 27-month lows on 6/17/11, which was a bearish indication for the long term. The Ratio is down substantially since its peak on 4/8/11, and the main trend remains bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 7/26/11, confirming an uptrend. Silver also appears to have emerged on the bullish side of a 2-month Triangle Consolidation. Support 34.02 and 31.97. Resistance: 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 7/26/11, thereby confirming a short-term minor uptrend. The Ratio was in a downtrend from a peak on 4/28/11 to a low on 6/27/11. The SLV/GLD Ratio is in a bullish position relative to 50- and 200-day SMAs.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) consolidated gains after rising above the highs of the previous 3 months on 7/19/11, confirming a preexisting medium-term uptrend. JJC has been in a bullish trend since bottoming at 51.13 on 5/11/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while Weakness suggests doubts about the future. Support 56.92, 55.50, 52.93, 52.12, 51.13. Resistance: 59.06, 60.04, and 61.69.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 7/25/11, confirming a short-term price pullback. The U.S. debt ceiling blame game in Washington may offer an unquantifiable risk for the financial markets. Technically, larger trends still appear bullish since TLT bottomed at 88.14 on 2/9/11. Support 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 97.90, 102.27, 106.10, 107.05, and 109.32.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has stabilized somewhat since breaking down below 9-month lows on 6/16/11, thereby confirming a major downtrend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above the highs of the previous 9 weeks on 7/25/11, suggesting a medium-term uptrend. The TIP/IEF Ratio has been weak since 2005, however, and remains in a long-term downtrend. That means fixed-income investors have preferred the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 7/26/11, again confirming a significant downtrend. In addition, on 7/21/11, UUP fell below the lower boundary line of a Symmetrical Triangle Consolidation Pattern from the low at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.01 and 20.84. Resistance 21.74, 21.86, and 22.21.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 46.2% Bulls versus 21.5% Bears as of 7/20/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio rose to 2.15, which suggests moderate bullish complacency when compared to 20-year range of 0.41 to 3.74, a median of 1.56, and a mean of 1.64.
VIX Fear Index collapsed below the lows of the previous 8-weeks, plunging to 15.12 intraday on 7/1/11, in a surprisingly rapid swing to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.
As of the close on June 6, 2011, the Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction (a significant downside correction) for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 10-week lows. Previously, as of June 1, 2011, the Dow Theory gave a warning of a significant downside correction for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 5-week lows.
As of the close on July 1, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above all previous closing price highs but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average failed to confirm.
As of the close on July 21, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above its closing prices of the previous 2 months but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to confirm a similar breakout above its recent trading range.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,331.94) fell 5.49 points or 0.41% on Tuesday, July 26, 2011.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1295.92, low of 7/18/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.49% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.48% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.22% Italy Index, EWI
1.21% Russia MV, RSX
1.14% China 25 iS, FXI
1.11% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.05% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.04% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.00% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.96% Austria Index, EWO
0.93% Australia Index, EWA
0.89% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.87% South Africa Index, EZA
0.85% Singapore Index, EWS
0.83% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.82% European VIPERs, VGK
0.81% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.79% Germany Index, EWG
0.78% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.74% Networking, IGN
0.68% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.68% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.68% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.63% Spain Index, EWP
0.62% Sweden Index, EWD
0.60% EAFE Index, EFA
0.53% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.52% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.51% Belgium Index, EWK
0.50% South Korea Index, EWY
0.45% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.45% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.44% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.44% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.43% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.43% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.42% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.40% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.40% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.38% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.38% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.36% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.34% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.34% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.30% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.30% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.27% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.27% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.25% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.25% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.24% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.23% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.23% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.22% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.22% Global 100, IOO
0.21% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.20% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.19% Dividend International, PID
0.18% Japan Index, EWJ
0.16% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.13% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.04% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.00% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.04% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.05% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.07% Energy Global, IXC
-0.07% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.08% France Index, EWQ
-0.08% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.09% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.10% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.13% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.17% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.20% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.20% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.21% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.25% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.25% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.29% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.34% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.35% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.35% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.37% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.37% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.38% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.39% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.40% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.40% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.40% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.40% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.41% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.42% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.44% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.45% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.45% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.45% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.45% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.46% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.48% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.52% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.52% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.53% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.57% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.60% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.63% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.63% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.66% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.69% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.71% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.72% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.73% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.74% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.75% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.76% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.78% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.79% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.81% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.83% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.83% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.84% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.84% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.86% Canada Index, EWC
-0.89% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.93% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.01% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.01% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.08% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.11% India PS, PIN
-1.14% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.14% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.18% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.32% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.34% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.72% Water Resources, PHO
-1.85% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.12% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
