Industrial (XLI) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) turned systematically bearish again when it fell below its 50-day SMA.

Financial (XLF) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) turned systematically bearish again when it fell below its 50-day SMA.

VIX Fear Index fell to 15.27 intraday, its lowest level since 4/2/12. VIX fell from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This large drop suggests a shift from worried concern to bullish complacency.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,402.22) rose 0.87 points or 0.06% on Wednesday. SPX spent the entire day trading inside the previous day’s high-low range. Such an “Inside Day”, with a lower high and higher low, indicates a loss of momentum.

NYSE volume fell 13% to one of the lowest levels of the year, possibly reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for chasing a 4-day rally, as well as summer vacations. On-Balance Volume for the SPX remains in a downtrend with bearish divergence. NYSE Cumulative Volume of Advancing Stocks minus Volume of Declining Stocks remains weak relative to price. Volume has not been confirming the price up move.

Short-term momentum oscillators failed to rise above June-July highs to confirm the higher high for the S&P 500.

Currently, the Dow-Jones Industrials are above June-July highs but the Transports continue to lag well below June-July highs.

Technical market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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Investors Intelligence Sentiment has shifted toward bullish confidence since May. According to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors reported on 8/8/12, there were 43.6% Bulls and 25.5% Bears. Advisors consistently have been demonstrating above-average bullish sentiment since 1/4/12.

VIX Fear Index fell to 15.27 intraday on 8/8/12, its lowest level since 4/2/12. VIX fell from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This large drop suggests a shift from worried concern to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1407.14, high of 8/7/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1346.02, 50-day SMA
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1324.76, 200-day SMA
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, but its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. The 50-200 spread has been narrowing since late June and may be only days away from the 2 SMAs meeting. A trend of rising food prices could bring trouble for the general economy because more consumer spending for food means less consumer spending available for other goods and services.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.37, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD is now systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/7/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. JJC fell to its lowest level in 8 months on 8/2/12, thereby confirming its major bearish trend. JJC price remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since 12/31/10. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this relative weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
15.71% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
9.24% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
9.45% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
4.24% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
6.96% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
9.71% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
6.06% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
6.60% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
8.41% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
2.58% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
7.61% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
1.61% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
2.37% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
7.87% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
4.59% , HUM , HUMANA
3.25% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.30% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
2.44% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
1.86% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
0.36% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.30% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
2.33% , AA , ALCOA
1.57% , ETN , EATON
1.89% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.55% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
2.45% , WPO , Washington Post
0.74% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.38% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
2.06% , GPS , GAP
2.25% , PPL , PPL
1.91% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.98% , AON , AON
0.75% , JCP , JC PENNEY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.33% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-0.38% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-3.20% , MBI , MBIA
-1.66% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-2.47% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-3.00% , MOLX , MOLEX
-2.21% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-1.91% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-1.28% , TMK , TORCHMARK
-1.43% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-1.10% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-0.50% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.18% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-1.35% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.34% , IGV , Software, IGV
-0.53% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-2.21% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-1.63% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-0.50% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.41% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.20% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-2.31% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-0.96% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-1.47% , IP , INTL PAPER
-0.13% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.68% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-1.42% , PCG , PG&E
-0.52% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-0.26% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.34% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.26% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.94% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-0.03% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.40% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.03% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.97% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.89% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.82% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.77% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.74% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.72% Sweden Index, EWD
0.70% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.68% Australia Index, EWA
0.65% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.57% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.38% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.36% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.33% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.32% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.31% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.30% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.30% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.29% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.29% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.29% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.28% South Korea Index, EWY
0.28% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.27% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.26% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.26% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.24% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.24% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.24% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.24% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.24% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.24% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.24% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.22% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.22% Energy DJ, IYE
0.20% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.17% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.17% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.17% China 25 iS, FXI
0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.14% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.14% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.13% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.13% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.13% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.13% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.12% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.12% Networking, IGN
0.11% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.11% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.10% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.10% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.10% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.09% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.09% South Africa Index, EZA
0.09% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.09% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.08% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.08% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.08% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.08% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.07% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.07% Dividend International, PID
0.07% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.06% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.05% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.05% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.05% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.05% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.03% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.03% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.03% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.03% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.01% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.00% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.00% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.00% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.00% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.01% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.01% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.02% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.05% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.06% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.07% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.07% Russia MV, RSX
-0.08% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.09% Global 100, IOO
-0.10% Energy Global, IXC
-0.11% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.13% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.13% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.13% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.14% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.14% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.14% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.14% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.15% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.21% Water Resources, PHO
-0.22% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.22% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.23% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.23% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.25% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.26% Italy Index, EWI
-0.28% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.29% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.30% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.33% Canada Index, EWC
-0.34% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.36% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.39% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.43% Germany Index, EWG
-0.43% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.46% India PS, PIN
-0.47% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.49% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.49% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.50% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.53% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.60% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.62% Austria Index, EWO
-0.63% France Index, EWQ
-0.67% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.68% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.72% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.81% Spain Index, EWP
-0.85% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.88% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.31% Biotech SPDR, XBI