The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,203.66) fell 3.59 points or 0.30% on Thursday, October 13, 2011.

It was the first day since 10/4/11 that the intraday low of the SPX was lower than the low of the previous day.

Sensitive price momentum indicators are now pointing lower.

As I wrote yesterday, “The 7-day bounce has left the market in a vulnerable, overbought position….This 7-day bounce is the 7th bounce of 3% or more since early August, and it probably will end the same way the others did, that is, failing near the upper end of the 2-month trading range….Over the past 7 trading days, investors appear to be hoping for good news from Europe and seem willing to believe. Hope offers no comfort, however, since the market’s moods change all too frequently….The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag, as we have seen repeatedly over the past 2 months.”

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011. The Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has consolidated gains over the past 3 weeks. The Ratio rose above previous 10-year highs on 9/23/11, reconfirming a major long-term uptrend. That relative trend probably will resume–in time. NASDAQ absolute price trend has been whipsawing mostly within a trading range for 2 months and is now neutral.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below 31-month lows on 10/4/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend. This basket of the stocks of Brazil, Russia, India and China is in a relatively bearish major trend.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 29-month lows on 9/22/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price has been bearish since 5/2/11, broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11, and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 7-year lows on 9/19/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price has been bearish since 5/2/11 and broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) OEX/SPX consolidated after rising above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/21/11, which was a RELATIVELY bullish sign of the OEX outperforming the SPX. Large Caps tend to outperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bearish markets as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Absolute price of OEX has been whipsawing in a trading range for 2 months and is now neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) broke down below the lows of the previous 20-months on 10/3/11, thereby reconfirming a major downtrend. Absolute price has been in a bearish trend most of the time since 5/2/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) broke down below the lows of the previous 18-months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend. Absolute price has been in a bearish trend most of the time since 5/2/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 34.4% Bulls versus 46.3% Bears as of 10/12/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 0.74, which is the lowest level since the big bear market of 2007- 2009. The Bull/Bear Ratio is now more 1 standard deviation below the 20-year average. It was more than 2 standard deviations above the 20-year average at the end of April, 2011. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64. Sentiment is not so easy to interpret. Contrary to what many contrarians seem to believe, when advisors turn this bearish, stocks sometimes have much further to fall. Examples include similar levels of bearish sentiment in April 1973 and in July 2008, after which stock prices fell much further.

VIX Fear Index remains stuck in a 9-week, relatively high level trading range, from a low of 29.79 to a high of 48.00. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,203.66) Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1230.71, high of 8/31/11
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.39, high of 9/20/11
1220.25, high of 10/12/2011

S&P 500 Cash Index (SPX: 1,203.66) Potential Support
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price broke out above a 7-trading-day down trendline on 10/13/11, suggesting a bounce after a larger-than-expected downside shakeout. TLT price is still above its rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs. TLT rose above all-time highs on 10/4/11, reconfirming a long-term, major uptrend. Support 113.48, 111.25, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price broke out above a 7-trading-day down trendline on 10/13/11, suggesting a bounce after a larger-than-expected downside shakeout. Support 102.05 and 101.67. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 13-month lows on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend. This bearish trend means that fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. So, fixed-income investors may be more worried about deflation than inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below the lows of the past 3 weeks on 10/12/11, continuing a big shakeout in its major price uptrend. Support 21.71, 21.56, 21.42, and 20.84. Resistance 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price broke down below a 7-trading-day up trendline on 10/13/11, suggesting a downside shakeout. USO appears to have found resistance after bouncing back to its 5-month downtrend line. USO fell below 17-month lows on 10/4/11, which reconfirmed a major long-term downtrend. Support 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 33.53, 35.08, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price found resistance near its 5-week downtrend line below 164.00. The medium-term trend appears doubtful. Support: 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.00, 165.72, 170.32, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Investors still prefer Gold bullion over Gold Miners.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price broke down below a 7-trading-day up trendline on 10/13/11, suggesting a downside shakeout. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell back below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 31.96, 32.62, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price consolidated losses since breaking down below the lows of the previous 14 months on 10/5/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.30% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
5.61% , SVU , SUPERVALU
2.51% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
1.86% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
3.31% , ALTR , ALTERA
6.15% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
5.82% , NVDA , NVIDIA
1.03% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
2.58% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
2.60% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
1.91% , GOOG , Google
0.86% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
3.77% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
2.29% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
2.47% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
2.19% , SMH , Semiconductor H, SMH
0.63% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
5.68% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
2.02% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.36% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
1.01% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.03% , RAI , Reynolds American
3.10% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
3.33% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.34% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
0.37% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.21% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.86% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
2.59% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
1.14% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
2.44% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
0.95% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.47% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.84% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-0.80% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-4.67% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-3.90% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-4.69% , LM , LEGG MASON
-2.45% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-4.82% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-0.95% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.39% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.10% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-1.73% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-1.54% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-3.32% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-0.57% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-2.93% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.56% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-1.73% , GCI , GANNETT
-1.70% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
-0.42% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.51% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-2.96% , KEY , KEYCORP
-1.42% , TMK , TORCHMARK
-1.79% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
-1.76% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.06% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.59% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-1.50% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-3.88% , A , AGILENT TECH
-0.99% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-0.34% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-0.15% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-0.22% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-0.71% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.66% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.02% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.84% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.18% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.17% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.11% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.00% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.97% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.92% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.68% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.67% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.46% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.40% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.35% Australia Index, EWA
0.34% Belgium Index, EWK
0.32% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.30% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.29% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.28% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.27% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.25% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.22% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.22% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.21% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.21% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.21% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.21% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.20% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.20% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.19% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.19% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.18% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.17% Networking, IGN
0.13% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.09% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.08% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.06% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.06% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.05% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.04% EAFE Index, EFA
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.02% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.00% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% Dividend International, PID
0.00% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.08% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.08% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.09% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.09% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.09% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.13% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.13% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.14% Energy Global, IXC
-0.14% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.15% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.15% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.16% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.17% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.17% Spain Index, EWP
-0.18% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.20% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.20% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.20% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.20% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.22% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.23% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.24% Water Resources, PHO
-0.26% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.27% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.27% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.29% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.29% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.29% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.29% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.35% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.36% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.37% France Index, EWQ
-0.38% Global 100, IOO
-0.38% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.39% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.40% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.40% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.41% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.41% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.42% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.42% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.44% Germany Index, EWG
-0.45% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.47% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.48% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.48% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.50% Russia MV, RSX
-0.51% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.51% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.52% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.52% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.52% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.55% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.59% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.60% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.63% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.65% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.66% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.66% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.69% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.69% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.69% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.70% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.71% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.73% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.75% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.82% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.85% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.85% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.89% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.91% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.91% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.95% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.99% Austria Index, EWO
-1.06% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.18% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.22% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.31% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.36% Canada Index, EWC
-1.39% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.44% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.51% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.59% India PS, PIN
-1.72% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.99% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.25% Italy Index, EWI
-2.31% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.61% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.63% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.76% Thailand MSCI iS, THD