Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 12/5/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price also confirmed.
Technology stock sector absolute price 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 12/9/11–but the 50-200 spread is narrowing rapidly and is very likely to show a crossover bearish signal in days ahead.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,409.28) rose 2.23 points or 0.16% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP: 2,973.70) fell 22.99 points or 0.77%.
Speculators are still hoping for some kind of deal on the fiscal cliff, and the majority is hoping for a year-end rally.
The Financial stock sector turned unusually strong, encouraged by Citigroup (C: 36.46), which rose 6.33% after announcing plans to cut 11,000 jobs to save $900 million in costs. Speculators bet that other financial institutions might follow Citigroup’s lead, producing tens of thousands of job cuts and many billions of dollars in cost reductions for the Financial sector.
Apple Inc. (AAPL: 538.79) fell 6.43%, dragging down the Technology sector and the Nasdaq Composite Index. This price weakness followed a IDC forecast calling for the market share of Apple’s tablets to fall below 50% in 2016. Technically, it appears increasingly likely that Apple’s price 50-day SMA will cross below the 200-day SMA in days ahead, thereby turning AAPL’s price trend systematically bearish.
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) again closed near its opening price, forming Spinning Top Candlestick, which indicates indecision and a stalemate in the battle of bullish and bearish forces. Traders may be reluctant to enter new positions ahead of the monthly Employment Report, which sometimes moves markets, on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
SPX price hit resistance on Monday at its falling 50-day SMA, now at 1418.49, which also happens to be just below the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the SPX September-November price range at 1,424.41. Thus, the SPX tested and failed at a significant zone of technical resistance, as anticipated. As I wrote over the weekend, “Another failed short-term rally attempt may be at hand.”
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the SPX price peak on 9/14/12. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.49, 50-day SMA
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1398.23, low of 12/5/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1385.56, 200-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 123.43, 121.78, 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.99, 107.25, 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral on 11/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. TIP/IEF rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12, and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 10/10/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 11/30/12 when price fell below its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.89, 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral again on 11/30/12 when price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, although the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.93, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below support at 165.18 on 12/4/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below support at 31.91 and crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 11/30/12. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.73% , SVU , SUPERVALU
5.55% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
6.33% , C , CITIGROUP
1.42% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.94% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
3.89% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
2.61% , FISV , FISERV
2.73% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
1.52% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
3.02% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
4.11% , CMI , CUMMINS
3.00% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
2.60% , CB , CHUBB
2.01% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
2.64% , D , DOMINION RSCS
1.82% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.03% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
3.73% , MDP , MEREDITH
2.88% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
3.79% , WAG , WALGREEN
1.98% , GCI , GANNETT
2.65% , SWY , SAFEWAY
2.25% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
1.48% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
2.65% , CSX , CSX
2.21% , UIS , UNISYS
1.87% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
1.32% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
1.73% , AEE , AMEREN
1.38% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
1.77% , ALL , ALLSTATE
1.67% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
1.57% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-15.99% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-6.43% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-0.67% , IGV , Software, IGV
-2.43% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.31% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-3.11% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-1.00% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-0.99% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.45% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-1.02% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.34% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-3.63% , ALTR , ALTERA
-2.10% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-2.14% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-1.02% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-5.21% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-2.10% , QLD , Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
-0.27% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-3.89% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.57% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.17% , ORCL , ORACLE
-0.65% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-1.18% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.39% , KMX , CarMax
-1.00% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.35% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-2.51% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.86% , VFC , VF
-1.36% , RAI , Reynolds American
-0.26% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.39% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-0.88% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-0.89% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.00% China 25 iS, FXI
1.71% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.57% Russia MV, RSX
1.54% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.52% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.38% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.31% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.30% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.21% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.14% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.13% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.07% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.06% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.03% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.01% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.94% Energy DJ, IYE
0.93% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.84% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.79% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.78% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.76% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.74% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.73% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.72% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.70% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.67% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.66% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.66% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.66% South Africa Index, EZA
0.61% Energy Global, IXC
0.59% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.59% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.59% Global 100, IOO
0.58% Dividend International, PID
0.58% South Korea Index, EWY
0.53% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.53% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.51% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.50% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.49% India PS, PIN
0.49% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.48% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.48% Sweden Index, EWD
0.47% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.47% Austria Index, EWO
0.45% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.45% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.45% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.45% Singapore Index, EWS
0.44% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.44% France Index, EWQ
0.43% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.40% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.38% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.36% Canada Index, EWC
0.35% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.34% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.34% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.33% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.32% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.26% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.24% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.23% European VIPERs, VGK
0.22% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.21% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.21% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.20% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.19% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.19% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.18% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.18% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.18% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.18% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.18% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.18% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.17% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.16% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.15% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.14% Networking, IGN
0.12% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.12% Australia Index, EWA
0.11% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.11% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.10% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.09% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.09% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.08% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.08% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.07% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.07% Mexico Index, EWW
0.06% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.05% Japan Index, EWJ
0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.04% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.04% Germany Index, EWG
0.04% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.02% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.03% Spain Index, EWP
-0.04% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.05% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.07% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.11% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.12% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.18% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.18% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.20% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.23% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.24% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.25% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.26% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.26% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.26% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.27% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.27% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.28% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.28% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.30% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.30% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.31% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.32% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.32% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.39% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.39% Water Resources, PHO
-0.43% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.55% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.57% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.85% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.92% Italy Index, EWI
-0.98% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.99% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.02% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.11% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.18% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.29% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.43% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
