The markets are reacting to the swine flu outbreak.At this point, it’s hard to tell how much impact it will end up having; for now, think of it like the SARS outbreak of a few years ago. It’s currently a negative for two reasons:first, its impact is unknown, and markets hate uncertainty.Second, it’s definitely an economic negative; the question is how bad will it get?Expect the picture to get clearer over the next days, and then we’ll know whether we need to panic. The news coming out about GM leans toward bearish; for a deal to work is going to require a lot from GM bondholders. Credit Suisse lowered their rating for US equities, citing relative overvaluation of US stocks.Larry Summers said the US economy is likely to continue shrinking for some time, and that manufacturing will probably not improve for another six months or so.There’s no economic news out today.
June S&P:There’s now double top resistance around 870; support is 845.75 then at Friday’s low of 841.50.
June NASDAQ:Momentum sell short day; broke back under support at 1361.1348 is next support.
June Treasury Bonds: Regaining 125-00 is bullish, next resistance is at Friday’s high of 125-11.5.
June Japanese Yen:Small extension of Friday’s rally; resistance is at 10384.
June Euro Currency: Momentum sell short day; testing 131 support. Next supports are 13087 then 13038.
June Canadian Dollar:Momentum sell short day; 8180 is first support.
June Gold:Hit the 917.50 objective last night; momentum sell short day.905 is the next support.
July Silver:Bullish MACD crossover but momentum sell short day today.1293 is support.
July Copper: Testing support around 195; momentum is bearish.
July Cocoa:Had a breakout setup today but the train has already left the station.2375 then 2350 are support.
July Sugar:Can it hold together?Currently trading at 1385 support.
July Cotton:Narrow range breakout day, watch support at 5100.
June Crude Oil:Getting beat up by the swine flu scare.4850 is support. I wouldn’t be surprised by a retest of the recent low.
Livestock:Expect heavy pressure on hogs on the open; cattle will most likely go down with them.
July Soybeans:A sharp break overnight from a narrow range breakout day; 980 is a 50% retracement of the April rally.
July Wheat:Reached the price objective of 548-4 overnight, and then tumbled.It is a breakout day.528-2 is support.
July Corn:Testing the recent 370 low, if that doesn’t hold it could retest the March low at 354.
July Soymeal:Narrow range breakout setup; 305.50 is Fibonacci retracement support.
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