We got good earnings reports from Intel, JP Morgan, and CSX. CSX had upbeat comments-it’s good to hear a transportation company sound optimistic. Overnight there were a number of bullish economic reports from China. They’ve got growth, and money supply and loans are surging. The money supply growth is likely worrisome for inflation. Retail sales for September fell by 1.5%; this was better than expected. Most of the drop was attributable to the end of the Cash for Clunkers program. At 1 PM we get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting; after the close we get the API crude inventory report. Economic strength is pressuring the Dollar and Treasuries; there may also be selling related to the Senate’s passage of the Baucus health care bill. The budget deficit is big and likely to get bigger. Soybeans and corn are slightly higher; wet weather is hampering harvest. Gold made new highs overnight; but has since given up its gains and is lower on the day.
Dec. S&P: A strong breakout over the double top; Monday’s high at 1076.75 should now be support.
Dec. NASDAQ: It had a breakout setup yesterday then cleared breakout resistance at 1740.50 on last night’s open. The 9/23 high of 1753.25 is the first objective/resistance.
Dec. T Bonds: it decisively broke the up trend line and Friday’s low at 119-20. Today was a momentum sell short day; 118-21 is a Fibonacci retracement objective.
Dec. Dollar Index: There’s a bearish MACD crossover; the low of the move at 75.68 is key support. The old low at 76.045 is now resistance.
Dec. Yen: It tried to rally last night but couldn’t clear Fib resistance at 11214. Now watch support at 11136.
Dec. Euro FX: It broke old high resistance at 1.4844 and there’s a bullish MACD crossover-what’s not to like? It actually is a breakout day; yesterday was an NR4 day.
Dec. British Pound: It broke Fib resistance at 15909 and the trendline it couldn’t clear last week (it’s at 15951 today). The double top around 16120 is the next objective.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: There’s steep trend line support at 9688; watch that area. It’s also a breakout day; 9752 was the Trade or Fade breakout point on the top side.
Dec. Gold: Momentum is showing bearish divergence; watch trendline support at 1055.
Dec. Copper: It’s on a momentum buy signal after yesterday’s breakout sale. Fib support at 277.05 held and it’s over resistance at 282.85. 284.60 is next.
Dec. Cocoa: It’s a breakout day; 3157 is the upside breakout point. 3190 is the first objective / resistance.
March Sugar: Followthrough buying from yesterday’s breakout rally. Momentum is up to sell short signal levels; 23.31 is Fib resistance.
Dec. Crude Oil: Yesterday it broke trend lien resistance at 74.27; the August high at 76.16 is the next rally objective. With inventory reports coming, look for a breakout move tonight or tomorrow.
Dec. Natural Gas: Some recovery rally from yesterday’s breakout sale; resistance is around 5.580.
Dec. Live Cattle: Some recovery rally from yesterday’s breakout sale. 84.45 is Fibonacci support, trend line resistance is at 85.35 today. See my post about cattle here.
Nov. soybeans: Breakout setup today; use yesterday’s high and low for breakout points.
Dec. Soymeal: Breakout setup; it’s holding Fib support at 304.40.
Dec. Wheat: The Sept 25th high of 516-4 is resistance. This market is overbought, but I’d want more evidence before I’d short it.
Dec. Corn: 387-6 is a 50% retracement of the summer’s selloff.
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