I wonder if the fed is watching gold prices.  Last night Fed Chairman Bernanke and Governor Hoenig both made comments, albeit vague, about tightening policy.  Otherwise it was kind of a quiet night.  Stocks and commodities are flat to lower after big run ups this week.  Stocks are within sight of their 2009 highs; and silver is testing its contract high.  We get the US trade balance at 7:30: We’ll also get the USDA’s latest estimates as to the size of this year’s crops.

Dec. S&P:  Momentum is on a sell short signal; resistance is at last week’s high of 1065.75.  First support is yesterday’s day session low of 1056.75.
Dec. NASDAQ:  As with the Spoos, a momentum sell short signal. Last week’s high was 1732.50. First support was 1707.50 (yesterday’s low) then the 1700 area.
Dec. T Bonds:  It’s on a momentum buy signal; regaining 121-11 is positive.  Resistance is at the 122 area.  I think bonds could be nearing a break down.
Dec. Yen:  It’s selling off on a breakout setup day.  The first objective was trendline support at 11228.
Dec. Euro FX:  It’s on a momentum sell short signal; there’s trendline support at 14733.
Dec. British Pound:  It’s on a momentum sell short signal; it also made a double top on the daily chart.  15942 is key support.
Dec. Gold:  The day after a breakout rally day is often a momentum sell short day (first B.O. rally, then a momentum SS day).  Support is 1044.30
Dec. Silver:  It’s trading around the contract high of 17.69; that priced is the pivot for today.
Dec. Copper:  Momentum sell short day today; support is at last week’s high of 282.85.
Dec. Cocoa:  It had a breakout signal today, but it already had a big rally. For now, watch the overnight low at 3232.
Dec. Coffee:  Yesterday it cleared the top line of a big triangle (resistance).  The last barrier to a bigger rally is the September high of 138.30.
Nov Crude Oil:  It’s on a momentum sell short signal today; there is trendline resistance at 71.61. Support is 70.72 then 70.30.
Dec. Live Cattle:  It’s on a momentum sell short signal; resistance is 8460.

Grains:  The USDA reports were neutral to a bit bearish.  There weren’t any big enough surprises to really move the markets; they’ll probably go back to watching the Dollar and weather.  Wet weather in the South may be taking a bit off the top for yields for corn and beans. Early calls are 5 to 10 cents lower for both corn andbeans; I might be interested in buying a break.

This is the morning update to my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.

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