Technology SPDR (XLK), a stock sector ETF, absolute price rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish.

Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite stock price indexes closed above their closing price highs of the previous 2 years, thereby confirming major bullish trends.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed above 6-week highs and its 50-day SMA, turning bullish for the intermediate-term. The ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10, confirming a bullish Primary uptrend for the longer-term.

Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP), a stock sector ETF, Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows and remains bearish.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell further below 6-month lows and remains neutral at this time, although it is rapidly heading toward bearish territory.

Commodities (oil, gold, silver, copper, CRB index, etc.) have pulled back in normal short-term corrections but remain in bullish major long-term trends.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.84% , NVDA , NVIDIA
4.95% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
8.60% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
0.45% , IGV , Software, IGV
3.36% , SLM , SLM CORP
2.40% , MON , MONSANTO
3.04% , RAI , Reynolds American
3.83% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
4.62% , CIEN.O , CIENA
2.81% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
3.19% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
3.93% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
5.86% , TJX , TJX
3.47% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
1.21% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
1.18% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
3.96% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
2.79% , GLW , CORNING
2.89% , MAS , MASCO
1.56% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.96% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
3.67% , HUM , HUMANA
2.93% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
2.06% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
3.38% , TLAB , TELLABS
1.79% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
3.49% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.45% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.06% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
1.02% , EMC , EMC
0.34% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
1.72% , AES , AES
0.97% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.80% , TGT , TARGET
-6.88% , GPS , GAP
-3.62% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-0.97% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-3.10% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.02% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.88% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.86% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.91% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-3.10% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-0.46% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-0.89% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.61% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
-0.97% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-4.33% , CMA , COMERICA
-1.92% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.83% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-1.80% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.97% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.08% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.71% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.68% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-1.63% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.09% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-2.13% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.81% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-1.22% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-2.50% , CMI , CUMMINS
-2.77% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-1.30% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-3.70% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-1.81% , VFC , VF
-1.52% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 14-month highs on 12/31/10 highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 69.95 and 78.10.

Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.15 and 41.06.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 1/5/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.29, 37.15, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.09, 40.13, and 40.70.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/5/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 36.16.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 1/6/11 and remains bullish. Support 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.69, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price turned bullish as of 12/22/10 when the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/3/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 7-month highs on 1/6/11 and remains bullish. Support 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows on 1/6/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.10, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 30.29.

Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 1/5/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 4-month lows on 12/28/10 and remains neutral

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell further below 6-month lows on 1/6/11 and remains neutral at this time, although it is rapidly heading toward bearish territory.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed above 6-week highs and its 50-day SMA on 1/6/11, turning bullish. The ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10, confirming a bullish Primary uptrend for the longer-term.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, turning neutral technically. The ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/27/10 and remains bullish.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 1/3/11, and remains bullish.

CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell further below 2-week lows on 1/6/11, confirming a minor, short-term shakeout. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.43, 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 98.65 and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price fell below 2-week lows on 1/5/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Gold rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1361.6, 1352.6, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 2-month lows on 1/6/11, confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. The ratio has been trending lower since making a top on 12/6/10.

Silver nearest futures contract price fell below 2-week lows on 1/5/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend for the long term.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/31/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 4-day lows on 1/5/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Copper rose above multi-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.204, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price has turned choppy and still looks uncertain for the short term. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 121.20, 122.02, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 8-month highs on 12/28/10 and remains bullish. JNK absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 12/27/10, which is bullish for the short term. Price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish for the longer term.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) is in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 4 months.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above 4-week highs on 1/6/11, possibly signaling a short-term uptrend. Still, USD may encounter resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.525 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.01, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.525, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 54.5% Bulls versus 20.5% Bears as of 1/5/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.66, which is nearly two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. Bullish Sentiment tends to rise in November and December every year. The ratio was as high as it is now or higher in Decembers of each year 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, and none of these “high” readings led to bear markets. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.

VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.40 on 12/23/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 1/3/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,273.85) eased slightly lower after rising above highs of the previous 2-years on 1/5/11, thereby confirming the Dow Theory Bullish Primary Tide Trend.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.79% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.56% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.28% Networking, IGN
0.93% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.86% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.68% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.58% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.52% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.44% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.41% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.32% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.29% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.21% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.15% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.12% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.12% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.11% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.10% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.03% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.02% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.06% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.11% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.11% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.15% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.17% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.17% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.17% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.19% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.20% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.20% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.20% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.20% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.21% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.21% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.22% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.22% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.23% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.23% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.24% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.24% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.25% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.25% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.26% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.27% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.28% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.28% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.28% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.30% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.31% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.33% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.34% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.34% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.36% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.38% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.40% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.40% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.40% Global 100, IOO
-0.40% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.40% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.41% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.42% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.42% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.43% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.43% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.44% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.44% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.45% Dividend International, PID
-0.47% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.47% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.47% Water Resources, PHO
-0.48% Canada Index, EWC
-0.49% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.49% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.52% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.52% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.53% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.54% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.59% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.61% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.63% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.64% Russia MV, RSX
-0.66% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.66% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.66% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.69% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.72% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.77% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.78% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.79% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.80% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.81% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.86% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.88% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.88% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.90% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.92% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.93% Germany Index, EWG
-0.94% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.94% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.95% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.97% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.99% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.99% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.01% Australia Index, EWA
-1.02% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.06% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.07% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.09% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.13% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.15% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.15% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.19% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.19% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.22% Energy Global, IXC
-1.24% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.29% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.30% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.30% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.34% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.43% France Index, EWQ
-1.51% Austria Index, EWO
-1.55% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.59% India PS, PIN
-1.63% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.79% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.82% Italy Index, EWI
-1.91% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.92% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.97% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.08% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.18% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.71% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.75% Spain Index, EWP