The Flight to Safety is ON

The Flight to Safety is ON

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,161.79) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks and further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/23/11, again confirming a significant downtrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

Most other stock price indexes and indicators confirmed this bearish trend.

Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 2-year lows and further below its falling 50- and 200-day SMAs and remains clearly bearish. Absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose further above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, again confirming a significant uptrend.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell further below the lows of the previous 11 month.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs, again confirming a significant uptrend.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell further below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, again confirming its major downtrend.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) broke down below the lows of the previous 4-weeks on 11/23/11. JJC remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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Stock Market Indicators

Price momentum oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, have been weaker than price in recent weeks, thereby giving bearish divergence early warning.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1269.27, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

Given the deep-rooted global fundamental economic problems and the lack of workable solutions, plus the constant attempts of government officials to deny reality and talk the markets up, markets are likely to remain volatile, with a continuing heightened sensitivity to news, and with continuing large daily moves in both directions. Note that very high price volatility is typical of bear markets, while bull markets are much less volatile. Risk appears skewed to the downside.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 11-week lows and fell further below its 50-day SMA on 11/21/11. The Ratio has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. This is cause for concern. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 11/23/11, confirming a significant downtrend. The long-term price trend turned bearish on 11/17/11, with price below the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell further after breaking down below its 50-day SMA on 11/17/11, and thereby turning bearish again. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further after breaking down below its 50-day SMA on 11/8/11, and thereby turning bearish again. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/23/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) crossed above the 50-day SMA, turning bullish again. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA and further below its 200-day SMA on 11/23/11, again confirming a bearish trend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA and further below its 200-day SMA on 11/23/11, again confirming a bearish trend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 67.4% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 32.6% Bears as of 11/16/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. Sentiment has returned to normal: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index , now at 33.98, has firmed up from a low of 24.44 on 10/28/11, indicating rising fear again. Previously, VIX had fallen to 24.44 on 10/28/11, down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11, suggesting that fear had decreased substantially. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/23/11, again confirming a significant uptrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 118.32, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose further above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/23/11, again confirming a significant uptrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 104.25, 103.57, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell further below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/22/11, again confirming its major downtrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its 50-day SMA and fell further below its falling 200-day SMA on 11/21/11, confirming its major downtrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose further above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/23/11, again confirming a significant uptrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.32 and 22.62.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell further below the lows of the previous 11 months on 11/23/11, again confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) broke down below the lows of the previous 7 trading days and below its 200-day SMA on 11/21/11. Previously, USO rose 37% from its October low and appeared overbought by 11/16/11, when it peaked out at 39.74. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/21/11, confirming a minor downside price correction. Longer term, GLD remains above its rising 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullish above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below the lows of the previous 4-weeks on 11/21/11. SLV remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 29.14, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) broke down below the lows of the previous 4-weeks on 11/23/11. JJC remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.89% , DE , DEERE & CO
4.39% , WAG , WALGREEN
3.96% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.25% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2.00% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.75% , MBI , MBIA
4.55% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
2.45% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
4.38% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.62% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.98% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.79% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.22% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
0.19% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
0.42% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.05% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.19% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.11% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.68% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.11% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.70% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-2.41% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.96% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-2.89% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-2.65% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-3.44% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.02% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-2.18% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-2.01% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-4.67% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-3.41% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-2.24% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-2.56% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-4.38% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.34% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-2.48% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-3.79% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.31% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-2.78% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
-2.81% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.12% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-4.38% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-5.00% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-2.56% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.36% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-2.36% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-3.06% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-2.38% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-4.23% , CMA , COMERICA
-1.81% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-2.50% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-3.26% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-2.65% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.98% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.42% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.34% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.09% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.29% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.51% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.89% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.92% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.93% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.08% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.08% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.13% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.19% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.38% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.46% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.50% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.54% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.57% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.58% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.72% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.75% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.79% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.80% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-1.80% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.93% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.99% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-2.03% Austria Index, EWO
-2.05% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.06% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-2.10% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.10% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-2.10% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.15% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-2.18% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.19% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.21% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.21% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-2.21% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-2.23% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-2.23% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.24% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-2.26% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.29% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-2.29% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.30% Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.32% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.32% Singapore Index, EWS
-2.32% Japan Index, EWJ
-2.35% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.35% Russia MV, RSX
-2.37% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-2.38% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.39% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.41% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.41% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.41% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.44% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.44% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-2.46% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.48% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.50% Global 100, IOO
-2.51% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.51% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.53% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.56% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.57% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.57% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.58% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.65% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.70% India PS, PIN
-2.71% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.71% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.73% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.74% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.74% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.75% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.77% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.79% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.81% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.81% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.81% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.83% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.85% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-2.88% Canada Index, EWC
-2.89% Dividend International, PID
-2.89% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.90% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.90% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.90% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.93% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.94% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.95% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.96% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.96% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.98% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.98% Energy Global, IXC
-2.98% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.99% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-3.00% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.00% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-3.00% Energy DJ, IYE
-3.01% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.01% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.01% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-3.03% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.03% Energy SPDR, XLE
-3.05% Mexico Index, EWW
-3.06% European VIPERs, VGK
-3.08% Germany Index, EWG
-3.08% Networking, IGN
-3.10% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-3.13% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-3.14% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-3.15% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.15% Water Resources, PHO
-3.15% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.17% Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.19% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.23% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-3.23% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.26% France Index, EWQ
-3.26% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-3.34% Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.37% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-3.44% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.45% Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.45% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.52% Australia Index, EWA
-3.54% Spain Index, EWP
-3.59% Taiwan Index, EWT
-3.78% Brazil Index, EWZ
-3.83% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.98% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-4.12% Sweden Index, EWD
-4.38% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-4.52% Italy Index, EWI
-4.89% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME

The Flight to Safety is ON

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