I have to travel this morning, and I won’t be able to write the report at the usual time. That is why it is going out now. I will be available for comments and questions throughout the morning and day. What I am going to do is provide a similar report to the typical one, but I am also going to include some more guidance later this morning based on what could happen either way this morning.
So, as we all know, today is job reports day. The unemployment numbers, the payrolls, the hours worked, and all the job data will be released at 8:30 AM. It is highly anticipated, but it raises a lot of questions. For example, is the data already priced in? We have known for quite some time we were going to 10% unemployment. If we hit that, will it scare the markets? If we beat, how much will it help the market? Have we gone too far up that news that is better than expected but still pretty awful enough to keep a rally? Those are tough questions. What I do believe is that if the numbers are good, we are not going to want to be shorting a lot of things. If they are bad, we don’t want to bank on a lot of upward movement on a buy.
How to play this then? What I want to do is find a way to almost hedge the job reports or undermine it a bit. So, I am looking for other big news that will play a role in the markets. One of those bits is NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings. The company improved its profits, year over year, by 8%, and it beat EPS estimates by 350%. Further, the company was up 8.5% in after hours. The news was very bullish for the chip sector, which has not seen as great of a rally and pull backs as of late. Another important piece of information was the fact that Japan Airlines reported a Q2 $1 billion loss, which was more money lost in all of 2008.
Going into tomorrow, the futures are currently mostly slightly down as Asia and Europe are both losing as expectations are not looking good, according to those continents, for American job data. When the reports are released, we will want to watch those future levels very closely to see how the market reacts. That…
