Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above the highs of the previous 4 trading days intraday but reversed to close down on the day. Oil fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 8/9/11, confirming a major downtrend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 10-month lows.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 6-month lows, confirming a bearish trend.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,177.60) rose 15.25 points or 1.31% on Wednesday, August 24, 2011. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 3 trading days, confirming a minor bounce.

Breadth narrowed slightly, with 2110 advances and 938 declines, compared with 2602 advances and 472 declines on Tuesday.

Both price momentum and NYSE volume slowed moderately.

Minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in any trend, and they can last for several days and run for several percentage points, or sometimes more.

We keep in mind that the dominant trend remains persistently bearish, and that is the bias. In a bear market, surprises come to the downside. And so, playing minor counter trend bounces is risky.

Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs and Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings.
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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio underperformed since peaking on 8/3/11. The Ratio remains below 20-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price broke down below 10-month closing price lows on 8/19/11 and remains bearish.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearish. The EEM/SPY Ratio has been in a downtrend since peaking on 10/14/10. EEM/SPY broke down below 6-month lows on 8/24/11, remains below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11 and broke down below 13-month lows on 8/8/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish. The EFA/SPY Ratio has been in a major long-term downtrend since peaking on 11/27/07. EFA/SPY remains below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11 and broke down below 11-month lows on 8/8/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) has lost upside momentum since peaking on 8/8/11. Longer term, OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming a bearish major trend. Absolute price of OEX fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 8/9/11 and remains bearish.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains bearish. IWM/SPY fell below 11-month lows on 8/22/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains bearish. MDY/SPY fell below 11-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 40.9% Bulls versus 33.3% Bears as of 8/24/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 1.23, down from 1.95 the previous week. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.

VIX Fear Index rose to 48.00 on 8/8/11, its highest level in 14 months, since 5/21/10. VIX is in an uptrend, and it is possible for VIX to rise much higher: VIX was 89.53 on 10/24/08 during the financial crisis. Options players tend to grow more fearful as stock prices decline, and the trend of stock prices is down. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,177.60) rose 15.25 points or 1.31% on Wednesday, August 24, 2011.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1208.47, high of 8/17/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1101.54, low of 8/9/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 4 trading days on 8/24/11, suggesting a minor shakeout. TLT rose above the highs of the previous 2 years on 8/18/11, confirming a major uptrend. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in bullish price trends, the dominant trend remains bullish. Support 108.10, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 116.92, and 123.15.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 2-year lows and fell further below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day simple moving averages on 8/10/11, confirming a major bearish trend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 10-month lows on 8/24/11. TIP/IEF has been weak since peaking on 4/8/11 and remains below 3 key SMAs, of 20, 50, and 200 days. This means fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. Fixed-income investors are not worried about inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below 3-month lows on 8/17/11, suggesting a medium-term downtrend. The sideways Continuation Pattern (which suggests that the previous major long-term downtrend probably may resume) since the low of 20.84 on 5/4/11 now appears to be “rolling over”, that is, showing a bearish bias. Support 20.84. Resistance 21.41, 21.74, 21.86, and 22.21.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the low of the previous trading day on 8/24/11, possibly suggesting a minor shakeout. DBA rose above the highs of the previous 3 months intraday on 8/23/11, confirming a short-term uptrend–but that might have been a failed breakout. Keep in mind that on 8/9/11, DBA traded below 8-month lows, confirming a medium-term downtrend. Too many whipsaw reversals make this a difficult market to trade.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above the highs of the previous 4 trading days intraday on 8/24/11 but reversed to close down on the day. Oil fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 8/9/11, confirming a major downtrend. Support 31.45, 30.31, 26.28, 22.74. Resistance 34.63, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 8/24/11, confirming a minor shakeout. Gold rose above all-time highs on 8/22/11, confirming its major long-term uptrend. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in any trend, the dominant trend remains persistently bullish. In a world of too much debt, weak currencies, and self-serving politicians running amok, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only forever-true money. Support: 167.77. 159.68, 156.11, 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 184.82.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, again confirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 8/24/11, confirming a minor shakeout. Silver rose above 3-month highs on 8/22/11, confirming a medium-term price uptrend. Support 36.04, 35.29, 34.02, and 31.97. Resistance: 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 8/10/11, again confirming a significant downtrend. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook. Support 50.59 and 49.00. Resistance: 53.32, 54.29, 56.64, 57.48, 59.06, 60.04, and 61.69.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.25% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
1.55% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
26.04% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.51% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.77% , PMR , Retail, PMR
1.81% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
4.71% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
6.75% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
3.25% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
6.65% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.43% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
3.89% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.07% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
2.08% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
2.05% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
4.26% , NUE , NUCOR
4.71% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
3.81% , HD , HOME DEPOT
1.39% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
3.02% , AGN , ALLERGAN
2.44% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.49% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
2.47% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
0.54% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
4.77% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
5.25% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
1.21% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
1.19% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
2.96% , MAS , MASCO
1.23% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
4.15% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
3.68% , TXT , TEXTRON
4.99% , MCO , MOODYS CORP

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.36% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-7.21% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-3.37% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.39% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.54% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-3.34% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-2.86% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-3.39% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.03% , TLAB , TELLABS
-1.50% , YHOO , YAHOO
-0.45% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.47% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.35% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.06% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.68% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.37% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
-0.69% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-1.53% , KR , KROGER
-1.58% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-4.43% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.92% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.64% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.38% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.32% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-1.62% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.56% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-1.31% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
-0.51% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-0.39% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-2.28% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-0.22% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-1.63% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.22% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.27% Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.74% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.68% Financial SPDR, XLF
2.50% Financial DJ US, IYF
2.47% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.44% Financials VIPERs, VFH
2.18% Water Resources, PHO
2.17% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
2.16% Utilities SPDR, XLU
2.08% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
2.02% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.82% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.78% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.71% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.64% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.64% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.59% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.59% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.58% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.58% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.57% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.53% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.53% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.52% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.51% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.49% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.48% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.47% Germany Index, EWG
1.47% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.45% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.44% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.44% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.43% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.43% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.42% Austria Index, EWO
1.42% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.42% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.42% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.41% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.41% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.39% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.38% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.37% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.35% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.33% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.32% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.31% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.30% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.27% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.27% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.21% Financial Preferred, PGF
1.20% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.19% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.17% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.16% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.15% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.15% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.12% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.11% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.05% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.92% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.89% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.85% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.82% Belgium Index, EWK
0.78% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.72% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.69% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.69% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.64% France Index, EWQ
0.59% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.51% Energy DJ, IYE
0.51% Sweden Index, EWD
0.49% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.49% Canada Index, EWC
0.46% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.46% Global 100, IOO
0.43% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.43% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.42% European VIPERs, VGK
0.34% Networking, IGN
0.31% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.29% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.14% Energy Global, IXC
0.13% Dividend International, PID
0.10% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.09% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.04% EAFE Index, EFA
0.02% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.00% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.06% Spain Index, EWP
-0.11% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.11% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.22% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.35% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.39% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.43% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.44% Russia MV, RSX
-0.45% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.45% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.45% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.46% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.47% Australia Index, EWA
-0.50% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.52% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.57% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.58% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.60% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.64% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.67% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.69% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.72% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.85% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.91% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.92% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.97% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.02% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.02% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.04% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.06% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.07% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.13% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.14% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.15% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.18% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.18% Bond, Corp, LQD
-1.22% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.36% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.44% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.47% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-1.58% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.68% India PS, PIN
-1.85% Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.84% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-3.39% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-4.03% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-4.43% Silver Trust iS, SLV