U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bullish again on 12/6/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral again on 12/6/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,413.94) rose 4.66 points or 0.33% on Thursday but remains systematically neutral below its falling 50-day SMA, now at 1417.63.
NYSE trading volume fell 24% to a level that was 11% below its 200-day SMA. Low volume indicates tepid demand for stocks.
Speculators appear to be still hoping for some kind of deal on the fiscal cliff, and the majority is hoping for a year-end rally.
SPX price hit resistance on Monday at its falling 50-day SMA, now at 1417.63, which also happens to be near the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the SPX September-November price range at 1,424.41. Thus, the SPX tested and failed at a significant zone of technical resistance, as anticipated. As I wrote over the weekend, “Another failed short-term rally attempt may be at hand.”
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the SPX price peak on 9/14/12. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1417.63, 50-day SMA
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1398.23, low of 12/5/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.82, 200-day SMA
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 123.43, 121.78, 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.99, 107.25, 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bullish again on 12/6/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. TIP/IEF rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12, and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 10/10/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral again on 12/6/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.77, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral again on 11/30/12 when price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, although the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.93, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below support at 165.18 on 12/4/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below support at 31.91 and crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 11/30/12. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.74% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
3.66% , NCR , NCR
5.73% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
2.41% , SWY , SAFEWAY
3.93% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
3.72% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
3.12% , FLR , FLUOR
3.07% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
1.66% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
1.90% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
2.21% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
3.82% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
2.85% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
0.98% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
5.43% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
3.15% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
4.34% , CIEN.O , CIENA
0.74% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.44% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
2.18% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
2.08% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
1.03% , WAT , WATERS
1.55% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
0.64% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
2.35% , DLX , DELUXE
0.79% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
0.85% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
0.39% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.78% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
1.29% , MCD , MCDONALDS
0.58% , FAST , Fastenal Company
0.76% , NKE , NIKE STK B
0.72% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.08% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-1.60% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-0.68% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-1.73% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-1.03% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-2.23% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-0.48% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.68% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.90% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.78% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-2.05% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-0.73% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-0.09% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.22% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-0.37% , TMK , TORCHMARK
-0.36% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.38% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-0.18% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-0.05% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.19% , PPL , PPL
-0.38% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.23% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-1.70% , PCAR , PACCAR
-0.25% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-1.75% , APA , APACHE
-0.80% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-0.52% , CL , COLGATE
-2.65% , MAS , MASCO
-0.23% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-0.06% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.15% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.26% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-0.14% , TYC , TYCO INTL
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.90% South Africa Index, EZA
1.27% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.14% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.14% Mexico Index, EWW
1.11% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.98% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.98% India PS, PIN
0.94% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.93% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.92% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.90% Networking, IGN
0.88% South Korea Index, EWY
0.88% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.83% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.82% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.76% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.76% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.76% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.67% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.64% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.64% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.64% Austria Index, EWO
0.63% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.57% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.55% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.53% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.48% Japan Index, EWJ
0.47% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.44% Australia Index, EWA
0.43% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.42% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.41% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.41% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.39% China 25 iS, FXI
0.38% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.38% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.38% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.38% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.37% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.37% Singapore Index, EWS
0.37% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.37% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.37% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.35% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.35% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.34% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.34% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.34% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.34% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.34% Germany Index, EWG
0.33% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.32% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.32% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.32% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.32% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.32% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.32% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.32% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.31% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.31% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.31% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.31% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.30% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.30% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.29% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.29% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.29% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.27% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.27% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.27% Energy DJ, IYE
0.25% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.24% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.24% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.23% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.22% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.22% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.22% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.21% Russia MV, RSX
0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.21% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.21% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.21% Spain Index, EWP
0.21% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.21% Global 100, IOO
0.21% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.20% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.20% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.20% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.20% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.20% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.19% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.19% Dividend International, PID
0.18% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.18% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.18% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.17% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.17% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.16% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.16% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.14% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.14% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.14% Sweden Index, EWD
0.11% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.11% Canada Index, EWC
0.10% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.10% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.09% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.08% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.07% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.06% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.06% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% Energy Global, IXC
0.02% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.01% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.01% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.02% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.03% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.03% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.05% Water Resources, PHO
-0.05% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.06% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.06% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.06% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.09% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.16% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.18% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.19% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.31% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.35% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.36% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.48% France Index, EWQ
-0.90% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.09% Italy Index, EWI
-1.74% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.75% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
