Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 1, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 139 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Energy VIPERs, VDE
97 Energy SPDR, XLE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
94 South Korea Index, EWY
93 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 1, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Energy SPDR, XLE
97 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
95 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
94 Russia MV, RSX
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
93 Energy Global, IXC
92 Commodity Tracking, DBC
91 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
91 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
90 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
89 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
89 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
88 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
87 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
87 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
86 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
85 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
84 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
84 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
83 Microcap Russell, IWC
82 South Korea Index, EWY
82 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
81 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
80 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
79 MidCap Russell, IWR
79 Industrial SPDR, XLI
78 Canada Index, EWC
77 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
77 Sweden Index, EWD
76 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
75 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
74 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
74 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
73 Austria Index, EWO
72 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
72 Water Resources, PHO
71 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
70 Indonesia MV, IDX
70 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
69 Materials SPDR, XLB
68 QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
67 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
67 Networking, IGN
66 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
65 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
65 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
64 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
63 Netherlands Index, EWN
62 Growth VIPERs, VUG
62 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
61 Germany Index, EWG
60 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
60 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
59 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
58 Malaysia Index, EWM
57 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
57 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
56 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
55 Value VIPERs, VTV
55 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
54 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
53 Mexico Index, EWW
52 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
52 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
51 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
50 REIT Wilshire, RWR
50 South Africa Index, EZA
49 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
48 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
48 Technology DJ US, IYW
47 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
46 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
45 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
45 France Index, EWQ
44 Australia Index, EWA
43 Technology SPDR, XLK
43 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
42 Biotech SPDR, XBI
41 Switzerland Index, EWL
40 Emerging Markets, EEM
40 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
39 EMU Europe Index, EZU
38 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
38 Belgium Index, EWK
37 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
36 Dividend International, PID
35 Taiwan Index, EWT
35 Italy Index, EWI
34 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
33 Global 100, IOO
33 Financials VIPERs, VFH
32 Dividend SPDR, SDY
31 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
30 United Kingdom Index, EWU
30 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
29 Financial SPDR, XLF
28 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
28 Financial DJ US, IYF
27 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
26 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
26 EAFE Index, EFA
25 Latin Am 40, ILF
24 Health Care SPDR, XLV
23 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
23 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
22 Singapore Index, EWS
21 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
21 European VIPERs, VGK
20 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
19 Financial Services DJ, IYG
18 Hong Kong Index, EWH
18 Spain Index, EWP
17 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
16 Financial Preferred, PGF
16 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
15 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
14 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
13 Brazil Index, EWZ
13 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
12 China 25 iS, FXI
11 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
11 Bond, TIPS, TIP
10 Utilities SPDR, XLU
9 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
9 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
8 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
7 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
6 India PS, PIN
5 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
4 India Earnings WTree, EPI
4 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
3 Japan Index, EWJ
2 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
1 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
