Based on prices as of the close on Friday, August 27, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 106 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
94 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
93 Singapore Index, EWS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, August 27, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Silver Trust iS, SLV
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
94 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
93 Singapore Index, EWS
92 REIT Wilshire, RWR
91 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
91 Financial Preferred, PGF
90 India Earnings WTree, EPI
89 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
89 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
88 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
87 South Africa Index, EZA
86 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
86 India PS, PIN
85 Bond, Corp, LQD
84 Hong Kong Index, EWH
84 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
83 Utilities SPDR, XLU
82 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
81 South Korea Index, EWY
81 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
80 Sweden Index, EWD
79 Emerging Markets, EEM
79 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
78 Taiwan Index, EWT
77 Latin Am 40, ILF
76 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
76 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
75 Brazil Index, EWZ
74 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
74 Bond, TIPS, TIP
73 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
72 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
71 Russia MV, RSX
71 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
70 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
69 Canada Index, EWC
69 Switzerland Index, EWL
68 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
67 Dividend SPDR, SDY
66 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
65 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
64 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
64 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
63 MidCap Russell, IWR
62 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
61 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
61 Mexico Index, EWW
60 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
59 Dividend International, PID
59 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
58 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
57 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
56 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
56 Materials SPDR, XLB
55 Industrial SPDR, XLI
54 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
54 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
53 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
52 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
51 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
51 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
50 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
49 Australia Index, EWA
49 United Kingdom Index, EWU
48 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
47 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
46 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
46 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
45 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
44 China 25 iS, FXI
44 Networking, IGN
43 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
42 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
41 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
41 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
40 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
39 Growth VIPERs, VUG
39 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
38 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
37 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
36 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
36 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
35 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
34 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
34 Technology SPDR, XLK
33 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
32 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
31 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
31 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
30 Value VIPERs, VTV
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
29 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
28 European VIPERs, VGK
27 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
26 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
26 Belgium Index, EWK
25 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
24 Technology DJ US, IYW
24 Biotech SPDR, XBI
23 Commodity Tracking, DBC
22 EAFE Index, EFA
21 Japan Index, EWJ
21 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
20 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
19 Global 100, IOO
18 Microcap Russell, IWC
17 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
16 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
16 Energy VIPERs, VDE
15 Netherlands Index, EWN
14 Germany Index, EWG
14 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
13 Energy SPDR, XLE
12 Financials VIPERs, VFH
11 Energy DJ, IYE
11 Financial DJ US, IYF
10 Austria Index, EWO
9 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
9 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
8 Financial SPDR, XLF
7 Energy Global, IXC
6 Water Resources, PHO
6 EMU Europe Index, EZU
5 France Index, EWQ
4 Spain Index, EWP
4 Financial Services DJ, IYG
3 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Italy Index, EWI
