Based on prices as of the close on Friday, February 18, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 129 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Energy SPDR, XLE
97 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
95 Networking, IGN
94 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
94 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
93 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, February 18, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Energy SPDR, XLE
97 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
96 Energy DJ, IYE
95 Networking, IGN
94 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
94 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
93 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
92 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
91 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
91 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
90 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
89 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
89 Energy Global, IXC
88 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
87 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
86 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
86 Industrial SPDR, XLI
85 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
84 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
84 MidCap Russell, IWR
83 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
82 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
81 Microcap Russell, IWC
81 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
80 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
79 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
79 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
78 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
77 Technology DJ US, IYW
76 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
76 Materials SPDR, XLB
75 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
74 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
74 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
73 Canada Index, EWC
72 Germany Index, EWG
71 Water Resources, PHO
71 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
70 Growth VIPERs, VUG
69 Commodity Tracking, DBC
69 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
68 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
67 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
66 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
65 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
64 Technology SPDR, XLK
64 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
63 REIT Wilshire, RWR
62 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
61 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
61 Value VIPERs, VTV
60 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
59 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
59 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
58 Sweden Index, EWD
57 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
56 Russia MV, RSX
56 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
55 Austria Index, EWO
54 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
54 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
53 Mexico Index, EWW
52 South Korea Index, EWY
51 Japan Index, EWJ
51 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
50 Financials VIPERs, VFH
49 Financial SPDR, XLF
49 United Kingdom Index, EWU
48 Financial DJ US, IYF
47 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
46 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
45 Global 100, IOO
44 Financial Services DJ, IYG
44 Taiwan Index, EWT
43 Netherlands Index, EWN
42 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
41 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
41 EAFE Index, EFA
40 Switzerland Index, EWL
39 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
39 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
38 Australia Index, EWA
37 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
36 France Index, EWQ
36 Malaysia Index, EWM
35 EMU Europe Index, EZU
34 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
34 Italy Index, EWI
33 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
32 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
31 Dividend International, PID
31 Dividend SPDR, SDY
30 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
29 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
29 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
28 European VIPERs, VGK
27 Biotech SPDR, XBI
26 Latin Am 40, ILF
26 Health Care SPDR, XLV
25 South Africa Index, EZA
24 Belgium Index, EWK
24 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
23 Hong Kong Index, EWH
22 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
21 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
21 Emerging Markets, EEM
20 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
19 Spain Index, EWP
19 Singapore Index, EWS
18 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
17 Indonesia MV, IDX
16 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
16 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
15 Financial Preferred, PGF
14 Utilities SPDR, XLU
14 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
13 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
12 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
11 Brazil Index, EWZ
11 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
10 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
9 China 25 iS, FXI
9 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
8 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
7 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Bond, TIPS, TIP
6 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
5 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
3 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
2 India Earnings WTree, EPI
1 India PS, PIN
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
