Based on prices as of the close on Friday, February 4, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 120 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
97 Networking, IGN
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
95 Energy VIPERs, VDE
94 Energy DJ, IYE
94 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
93 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, February 4, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
97 Networking, IGN
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
95 Energy VIPERs, VDE
94 Energy DJ, IYE
94 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
93 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
92 South Korea Index, EWY
91 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
91 Russia MV, RSX
90 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
89 Taiwan Index, EWT
89 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
88 Energy Global, IXC
87 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
86 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
86 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
85 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
84 Technology DJ US, IYW
84 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
83 Sweden Index, EWD
82 Industrial SPDR, XLI
81 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
81 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
80 MidCap Russell, IWR
79 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
79 Materials SPDR, XLB
78 Commodity Tracking, DBC
77 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
76 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
76 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
75 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
74 Microcap Russell, IWC
74 Technology SPDR, XLK
73 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
72 Canada Index, EWC
71 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
71 Mexico Index, EWW
70 Growth VIPERs, VUG
69 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
69 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
68 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
67 Austria Index, EWO
66 Germany Index, EWG
66 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
65 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
64 Malaysia Index, EWM
64 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
63 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
62 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
61 Water Resources, PHO
61 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
60 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
59 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
59 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
58 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
57 Hong Kong Index, EWH
56 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
56 REIT Wilshire, RWR
55 Value VIPERs, VTV
54 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
54 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
53 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
52 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
51 Australia Index, EWA
51 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
50 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
49 Japan Index, EWJ
49 United Kingdom Index, EWU
48 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
47 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
46 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
45 Netherlands Index, EWN
44 EAFE Index, EFA
44 Singapore Index, EWS
43 Global 100, IOO
42 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
41 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
41 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
40 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
39 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
39 Financials VIPERs, VFH
38 Financial SPDR, XLF
37 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
36 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
36 Financial DJ US, IYF
35 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
34 Switzerland Index, EWL
34 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
33 Dividend International, PID
32 EMU Europe Index, EZU
31 Financial Services DJ, IYG
31 France Index, EWQ
30 Italy Index, EWI
29 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
29 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
28 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
27 Emerging Markets, EEM
26 Biotech SPDR, XBI
26 European VIPERs, VGK
25 Dividend SPDR, SDY
24 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
24 Indonesia MV, IDX
23 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
22 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
21 Latin Am 40, ILF
21 South Africa Index, EZA
20 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 Belgium Index, EWK
19 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
18 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
17 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
16 Spain Index, EWP
16 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
15 Financial Preferred, PGF
14 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
14 Utilities SPDR, XLU
13 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
12 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
11 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
11 China 25 iS, FXI
10 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
9 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
9 Brazil Index, EWZ
8 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
7 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
6 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
6 Bond, TIPS, TIP
5 Bond, Corp, LQD
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
3 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
2 India PS, PIN
1 India Earnings WTree, EPI
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
