Based on prices as of the close on Friday, June 18, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 103 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
97 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
95 Silver Trust iS, SLV
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
93 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, June 18, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
97 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
95 Silver Trust iS, SLV
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
93 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
92 Mexico Index, EWW
91 India Earnings WTree, EPI
91 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
90 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
89 Malaysia Index, EWM
89 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
88 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
87 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
86 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
86 Sweden Index, EWD
85 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
84 MidCap Russell, IWR
84 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
83 Canada Index, EWC
82 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
81 India PS, PIN
81 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
80 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
79 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
79 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
78 Singapore Index, EWS
77 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
76 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
76 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
75 South Africa Index, EZA
74 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
74 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
73 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
72 Microcap Russell, IWC
71 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
71 Technology DJ US, IYW
70 South Korea Index, EWY
69 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
69 Industrial SPDR, XLI
68 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
67 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
66 Latin Am 40, ILF
66 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
65 Technology SPDR, XLK
64 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
64 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
63 Dividend SPDR, SDY
62 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
61 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
61 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
60 Emerging Markets, EEM
59 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
59 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
58 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
57 Growth VIPERs, VUG
56 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
56 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
55 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
54 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
54 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
53 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
52 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
51 Networking, IGN
51 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
50 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
49 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
49 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
48 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
47 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
46 Value VIPERs, VTV
46 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
45 Russia MV, RSX
44 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
44 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
43 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
42 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
41 Bond, Corp, LQD
41 Bond, TIPS, TIP
40 Hong Kong Index, EWH
39 Biotech SPDR, XBI
39 Financial Preferred, PGF
38 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
37 Brazil Index, EWZ
36 Financials VIPERs, VFH
36 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
35 China 25 iS, FXI
34 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
34 Dividend International, PID
33 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
32 Utilities SPDR, XLU
31 Financial DJ US, IYF
31 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
30 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
29 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
29 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
28 Water Resources, PHO
27 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
26 Energy VIPERs, VDE
26 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
25 Energy SPDR, XLE
24 Financial SPDR, XLF
24 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
23 Switzerland Index, EWL
22 Australia Index, EWA
21 Taiwan Index, EWT
21 Energy DJ, IYE
20 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 Netherlands Index, EWN
19 Materials SPDR, XLB
18 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
17 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
16 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
16 Japan Index, EWJ
15 Financial Services DJ, IYG
14 Global 100, IOO
14 Germany Index, EWG
13 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
12 United Kingdom Index, EWU
11 EAFE Index, EFA
11 Energy Global, IXC
10 Belgium Index, EWK
9 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
9 Commodity Tracking, DBC
8 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
7 European VIPERs, VGK
6 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
6 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
5 France Index, EWQ
4 EMU Europe Index, EZU
4 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2 Austria Index, EWO
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
