Based on prices as of the close on Friday, November 12, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 122 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Hong Kong Index, EWH
95 South Africa Index, EZA
94 Singapore Index, EWS
94 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
93 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, November 12, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Indonesia MV, IDX
96 Hong Kong Index, EWH
95 South Africa Index, EZA
94 Singapore Index, EWS
94 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
93 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
92 Malaysia Index, EWM
91 Mexico Index, EWW
91 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
90 India Earnings WTree, EPI
89 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
89 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
88 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
87 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
86 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
86 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
85 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
84 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
84 South Korea Index, EWY
83 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
82 Networking, IGN
81 Energy VIPERs, VDE
81 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
80 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
79 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
79 Latin Am 40, ILF
78 Emerging Markets, EEM
77 Energy SPDR, XLE
76 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
76 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
75 Taiwan Index, EWT
74 Sweden Index, EWD
74 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
73 Energy DJ, IYE
72 Russia MV, RSX
71 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
71 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
70 Australia Index, EWA
69 Germany Index, EWG
69 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
68 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
67 MidCap Russell, IWR
66 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
66 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
65 REIT Wilshire, RWR
64 Technology DJ US, IYW
64 United Kingdom Index, EWU
63 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
62 Microcap Russell, IWC
61 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
61 China 25 iS, FXI
60 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
59 Growth VIPERs, VUG
59 India PS, PIN
58 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
57 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
56 Materials SPDR, XLB
56 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
55 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
54 Technology SPDR, XLK
54 Canada Index, EWC
53 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
52 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
51 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
51 Brazil Index, EWZ
50 Energy Global, IXC
49 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
49 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
48 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
47 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
46 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
46 Industrial SPDR, XLI
45 Switzerland Index, EWL
44 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
44 European VIPERs, VGK
43 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
42 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
41 Austria Index, EWO
41 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
40 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
39 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
39 Dividend International, PID
38 Water Resources, PHO
37 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
36 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
36 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
35 EAFE Index, EFA
34 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
34 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
33 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
32 Dividend SPDR, SDY
31 Global 100, IOO
31 Belgium Index, EWK
30 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
29 Commodity Tracking, DBC
29 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
28 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
27 Financial Preferred, PGF
26 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
26 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
25 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
24 Netherlands Index, EWN
24 France Index, EWQ
23 Value VIPERs, VTV
22 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
21 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
21 EMU Europe Index, EZU
20 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
19 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
19 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
18 Biotech SPDR, XBI
17 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
16 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
16 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
15 Japan Index, EWJ
14 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
14 Health Care SPDR, XLV
13 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
12 Bond, TIPS, TIP
11 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
11 Financials VIPERs, VFH
10 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
9 Utilities SPDR, XLU
9 Financial DJ US, IYF
8 Bond, Corp, LQD
7 Financial SPDR, XLF
6 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
6 Italy Index, EWI
5 Financial Services DJ, IYG
4 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
3 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Spain Index, EWP
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
