Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bearish again. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,367.58) fell 6.44 points or 0.47% on Thursday, following 3 consecutive daily gains.
Pundits had said they expect some kind of monetary easing in Europe this week, and they got it Thursday morning. Traders sold on the news.
The world be watching Nonfarm Payrolls to be reported on Friday, July 6 at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus of economists expects an increase in excess of 100,000, and some estimates are as high as 165,000. That would compare to 69,000 new jobs reported in June. But whatever the actual number, traders who bought in anticipation might sell on the news.
Following a 7.51% bounce in SPX from 6/1/12 to 7/3/12, based on closing prices, risk of a price correction probably exceeds any remaining upside potential for the short term.
For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Averages gave an early warning by diverging after 2/3/12, as the Transports turned corrective and failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials. Again on 5/1/12, the Industrials rose to a higher closing price high while the Transports failed to rise to a higher closing price high, thereby indicating a non-confirmation and bearish divergence.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA again on 7/2/12, thereby turning systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 2/3/12.With resistance nearby, however, there appears to be risk of further whipsaws ahead.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 6/25/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Systematically, BKF/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/25/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. EEM/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 6/25/12. Systematically, EFA/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 6/27/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. OEX/SPX remains systematically bullish above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 200-day SMA on 7/2/12. IWM/SPY remains systematically neutral with its 50-day SMA below its 200-day SMA since 4/20/12. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been relatively weak for more than a year, since 4/5/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again, possibly for only a short while. MDY/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been below its 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
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Sentiment for Contrary Thinking
Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency at the February to May 2012 market highs. That was bearish because when the majority of investors has been bullish for some time, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean, as it did during the April-June downside stock market correction. In recent weeks investors have been growing more confident again, as they usually do when stock prices bounce back.
AAII Sentiment has moderated to a fairly even balance. According to the AAII weekly survey of individual investors reported on 7/5/12, there were 32.64% Bulls, up from a low of 23.58 on 5/17/12. There were 33.33% Bears, down from 42.06 on 5/10/12. Individual investors have been growing less pessimistic in recent weeks.
Investors Intelligence Sentiment has shifted toward bullish confidence since May. According to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors reported on 7/5/12, there were 42.5% Bulls, which was the largest proportion in 9 weeks, since 5/2/12. There were 24.5% Bears, which was the lowest since 5/30/12.
VIX Fear Index fell to 16.27 intraday on 7/3/12, its lowest level since 5/1/12. VIX fell from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This large drop suggests a rapid shift from worried concern to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1340.00, 50-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1301.97, 200-day SMA
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price has had a normal, minor correction and remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 124.09, 122.06, 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 127.34 and 130.38.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price has had a normal, minor correction and remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.51, 107.43, 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 108.55 and 109.37.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 7/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. JNK/LQD remains below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 7/2/12, reconfirming its major downtrend and suggesting disinflation or deflation. TIP/IEF is systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 6/27/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.02, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/2/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. CRB remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above its 200-day SMA on 7/3/12 and remains neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) bounced sharply higher over 3 trading days but remains in a major downtrend. USO turned systematically bearish on 6/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. USO remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 33.66, 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 7/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/29/12, turning systematically neutral again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/28/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major bearish trend. SLV remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/5/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
13.44% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
0.42% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
6.26% , KSS , KOHLS
4.39% , AVP , AVON
3.18% , AN , AUTONATION
7.00% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
2.87% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
4.63% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
3.64% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
7.02% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
4.49% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
0.82% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
4.38% , KBH , KB HOME
3.89% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
2.69% , VFC , VF
3.74% , TJX , TJX
2.37% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
3.84% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
2.30% , COH , COACH
1.92% , JWN , NORDSTROM
2.09% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
2.24% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
0.49% , WAT , WATERS
1.57% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
2.85% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
2.58% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
0.92% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
0.90% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.76% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
1.21% , DRI , DARDEN REST
2.17% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
0.30% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
1.95% , PMR , Retail, PMR
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.17% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-1.76% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-9.42% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-2.09% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-2.06% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.87% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-5.59% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.25% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-3.80% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-2.02% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.61% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-2.78% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-4.18% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-2.51% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-2.18% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-4.83% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-0.59% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.86% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.09% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-1.74% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.88% , ACE , ACE
-2.93% , C , CITIGROUP
-4.73% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.98% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-2.00% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-1.28% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-2.28% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-4.61% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-0.90% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-2.22% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-1.29% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.61% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.75% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.38% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.11% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.62% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.51% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.45% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.44% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.40% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.38% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.30% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.27% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.26% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.26% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.25% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.25% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.25% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.23% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.23% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.22% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.22% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.22% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.16% Water Resources, PHO
0.14% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% Networking, IGN
0.10% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.09% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.09% South Africa Index, EZA
0.07% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.06% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.04% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.02% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.02% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.01% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.01% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.00% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.03% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.03% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.04% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.04% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.05% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.07% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.07% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.08% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.11% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.11% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.11% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.11% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.14% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.14% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.16% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.18% Australia Index, EWA
-0.20% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.21% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.29% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.30% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.32% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.33% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.34% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.37% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.38% Canada Index, EWC
-0.38% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.40% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.41% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.41% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.42% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.42% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.42% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.43% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.44% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.45% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.46% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.46% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.47% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.49% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.49% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.55% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.59% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.59% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.62% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.63% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.64% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.68% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.73% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.73% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.76% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.76% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.82% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.83% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.84% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.84% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.86% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.87% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.88% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.92% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.94% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.97% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.00% Dividend International, PID
-1.05% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.07% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.09% Global 100, IOO
-1.13% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.13% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.18% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.24% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.26% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.26% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.27% Energy Global, IXC
-1.28% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.29% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.31% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.40% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.42% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.49% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.50% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.50% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.53% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.61% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.65% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.65% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.66% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.72% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.74% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.76% Russia MV, RSX
-1.92% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.06% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.22% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.28% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.33% Germany Index, EWG
-2.39% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.48% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.88% India PS, PIN
-2.95% Austria Index, EWO
-3.01% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.17% France Index, EWQ
-4.73% Italy Index, EWI
-4.83% Spain Index, EWP
