The Dow-Jones Transportation Average fell below its lows of the previous 16-weeks to its lowest closing price since 6/5/12, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically neutral again.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically neutral again, but only by a small margin.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,440.67) fell 6.48 points or 0.45% on Friday. SPX fell 1.33% for the week as a whole.
SPX declined 8 of the past 10 trading days but is not oversold. RSI(14) based on SPX, now in the neutral zone at 53.53, still appears be working off its recent extreme overbought condition. RSI(14) closed at 74.74 on 9/14/12, which was nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.
On-Balance Volume for the SPX fell to its lowest level in 7 weeks on 9/28/12. OBV remains far below its highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating relative weakness and bearish divergence.
NYSE volume rose 12% to a level 6% below its 200-day SMA on Friday. Average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years in September 2012, and both are still trending downward.
The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Fed and ECB plans to buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope) do not guarantee that stock prices will continue to rise, especially now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose above its closing price highs of the previous 4-years on 9/20/12, but on 9/28/12 the Dow-Jones Transportation Average fell below its lows of the previous 16-weeks to its lowest closing price since 6/5/12, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again, but only by a small margin. QQQ/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 8/5/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. MDY/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been below its 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
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Sentiment for Contrary Thinking
Investor sentiment data recently indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency as the stock price indexes rose above their 2012 market highs. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean, as it did during the -10% April-June 2012 downside price correction for the stock market.
SentimentTrader.com notes that 67% of the “dumb money” is bullish, compared to 29% of the “smart money”. At such readings in the past, the stock market suffered a 3% to 8% downside correction spread out over a few weeks.
AAII Sentiment shows that individual investors were recently extremely bullish. As of 8/23/12, there were 41.96% Bulls and 25.87% Bears. This was the most extreme optimism since 3/29/12, a few days before the SPX high close for the year and the beginning of a significant downside correction.
Investors Intelligence Sentiment revealed that stock market newsletter advisors were recently extremely bullish. As of 9/19/12, there were 54.2% Bulls and 24.5% Bears. That was the highest percentage of Bulls since 2/15/12 and the second highest since 54.9% Bulls on 5/4/11, just 2 days after the SPX peak for 2011.
Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index showed that the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of the shortest-term stock market timers jumped to 53.1% in August, up from previous peaks at 47.0% in July and 42.1% in May. “Watch out for a correction — or worse. The odds of a stock market correction are now quite elevated,” according to Mark Hulbert.
Corporate Insiders Have Been Extremely Bearish. Insiders sold 5.97 shares for each share bought in August–up from 1.6-to-1 in May, and up from a long-term average of 2.25-to-1. The data was compiled by Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research, and reported by Mark Hulbert on MarketWatch.com.
NYSE Short Interest fell by more than 884 million shares from June to August, a decline of 6%. This source of short-covering, potential demand for stocks has diminished.
The ICI reported $62.6 billion has been withdrawn from domestic equity mutual funds so far in 2012. This is another confirmation that supply is greater than demand for stocks.
VIX Fear Index remains near 5-year lows, suggesting bullish complacency. VIX fell to 13.30 intraday on 8/17/12, its lowest level in more than 5 years, since 6/20/07. VIX fell from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This large drop suggests a shift from worried concern to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1412.09, 50-day SMA
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1359.03, 200-day SMA
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP’s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. The 50-200 spread is narrowing rapidly, however, and the odds are that the 2 SMAs will cross bearishly in days ahead. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.93, 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 9/27/12, thereby turning systematically bullish again. CRB remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains above its 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price suddenly and sharply fell below its 50-day SMA. USO fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowed since 8/3/12. Support 32.98, 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically bullish on 9/20/12, when its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA. GLD price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 9/21/12, rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12, and rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12. Support: 168.34, 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 9/21/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11, but the 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, and a bullish crossover appears probable in a day or two. Support 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.05, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 8/22/12, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD ratio remains strong.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has begun to narrow over the past few weeks, however. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.04% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.73% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
1.60% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
1.52% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
3.15% , COH , COACH
0.60% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.14% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.68% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
1.70% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
1.04% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
1.51% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
2.00% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
0.66% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
0.93% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
1.14% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
1.03% , CBS , CBS CORP.
0.75% , IBM , IBM
0.77% , MTB , M&T BANK
1.43% , PPL , PPL
1.25% , WPO , Washington Post
0.94% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
0.87% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.75% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.73% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
0.31% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
0.29% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
0.59% , CLX , CLOROX
0.61% , PCG , PG&E
0.95% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
0.91% , SNA , SNAP ON
0.39% , TMK , TORCHMARK
0.32% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.82% , HD , HOME DEPOT
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.72% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.53% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-2.71% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-0.57% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.71% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-1.02% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-3.05% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.52% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.90% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-1.44% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-1.98% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-2.27% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.98% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-3.01% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-2.97% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-2.32% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.92% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.83% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.16% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-1.24% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.93% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.63% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-1.71% , CSX , CSX
-1.98% , EFA , EAFE Index, EFA
-2.27% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-1.23% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.04% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.47% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.12% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-1.10% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-2.68% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-2.22% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.54% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.52% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.81% India PS, PIN
0.60% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.59% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.48% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.48% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.46% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.44% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.44% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.34% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.26% Water Resources, PHO
0.22% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.21% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.14% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.11% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.06% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.03% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.05% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.07% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.09% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.10% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.14% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.15% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.16% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.17% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.17% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.19% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.19% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.21% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.22% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.23% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.24% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.26% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.26% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.27% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.29% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.30% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.30% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.31% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.32% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.32% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.32% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.33% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.34% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.35% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.35% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.40% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.40% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.40% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.41% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.41% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.41% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.41% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.42% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.42% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.43% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.43% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.44% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.44% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.45% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.46% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.46% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.46% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.46% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.47% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.47% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.47% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.48% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.49% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.50% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.51% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.52% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.55% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.57% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.57% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.59% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.60% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.60% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.60% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.61% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.63% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.66% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.66% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.71% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.71% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.71% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.72% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.73% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.73% Canada Index, EWC
-0.73% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.75% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.76% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.80% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.80% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.81% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.81% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.82% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.82% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.84% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.85% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.88% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.92% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.92% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.92% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.02% Networking, IGN
-1.08% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.11% Dividend International, PID
-1.12% Australia Index, EWA
-1.16% Energy Global, IXC
-1.21% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.21% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.23% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.28% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.30% Global 100, IOO
-1.42% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.47% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.57% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.58% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.64% Russia MV, RSX
-1.68% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.72% Germany Index, EWG
-1.72% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.79% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.83% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.87% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.93% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.98% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-2.01% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.04% Austria Index, EWO
-2.16% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.22% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.27% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.32% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.53% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.01% Spain Index, EWP
-3.05% France Index, EWQ
-3.68% Italy Index, EWI
