Opinions differ as news about the debt talks keeps changing. If the unresolved drama in Washington drags on, markets might whipsaw violently in both directions in reaction to the latest news.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above previous all-time price highs on 7/18/11, reconfirming a major long-term uptrend. In a world of too much debt and weak currencies, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only true-forever money.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative (to the Gold bullion ETF) Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 7 weeks on 7/22/11, reconfirming a short-term uptrend.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 7/18/11, confirming a medium-term uptrend.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) may be forming a bearish Descending Triangle Top Reversal Pattern since its high at 35.58 set on 3/4/11.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,345.02) rose 1.22 points or 0.09% on Friday, July 22, 2011. It was an indecisive Inside Day (with a lower high and a higher low), as well as a Candlestick “Spinning Top”, which also signals a loss of momentum and an indecisive standoff of bulls and bears.
As of the close on July 21, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above its closing prices of the previous 2 months but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to confirm a similar breakout above its recent trading range.
As I have been saying, “For the medium term, a complex Dow Theory Secondary Reaction probably is still unfolding during the historically weak, ‘Sell in May, and go away’ season.”
There is a strategy that gained over the past 2 months, while most other strategies lost; see:
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
19.23% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
9.36% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
1.28% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
7.37% , NCR , NCR
7.14% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
9.62% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
1.09% , SWH , Software H, SWH
4.26% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
2.49% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
3.12% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
3.02% , CB , CHUBB
4.60% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
1.28% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
2.33% , MCD , MCDONALDS
2.21% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
1.59% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
0.43% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
1.02% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
3.13% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
1.21% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
1.31% , CR , CRANE
0.78% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
1.12% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
0.92% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.20% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.61% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
0.88% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.95% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
1.74% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
0.70% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
4.81% , CIEN.O , CIENA
1.46% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
0.26% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.65% , BCR , C R BARD
-7.41% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-5.84% , RAI , Reynolds American
-5.78% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
-4.95% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-3.11% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
-3.68% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-2.14% , XRX , XEROX
-0.29% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-0.06% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-2.21% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-1.15% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-2.03% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-0.42% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-0.59% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-0.70% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.24% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-1.55% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-0.25% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.34% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-1.94% , PX , PRAXAIR
-1.39% , LOW , LOWES
-7.00% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-0.27% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-0.55% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-0.34% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-1.42% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-0.30% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-0.89% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-0.81% , MDP , MEREDITH
-0.76% , ETN , EATON
-0.09% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-0.24% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
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9 Major U.S. Stock Sectors
ranked in order of long-term relative strength
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below 7-week lows on 7/12/11 after trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 10/14/10. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 4-month lows on 7/19/11. The Ratio has been trading with a bearish bias since peaking on 11/27/07, so this is a major long-term bearish trend. The Ratio remains below the 200-day SMA, below the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 6/23/11.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio had a 5-month correction from 1/18/11 to 6/20/11. The Ratio has picked up some bullish short-term momentum since 6/20/11 and is near its high of 1/18/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish. Absolute price peaked on 5/2/11 at 2,887.75 (intraday).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 4 months on 7/22/11, suggesting a medium-term recovery. But OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming its preexisting bearish long-term major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) suddenly reversed to the downside on 7/14/11–this just after IWM/SPY rose above the highs of the previous 3 months on 7/13/11. Although IWM/SPY appears uncertain about the short term, longer term the trend remains bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been fluctuating neutral/sideways since peaking on 4/5/11. Long term, the trend remains bullish.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) may be forming a bearish Descending Triangle Top Reversal Pattern since its high at 35.58 set on 3/4/11. Support 32.35, 32.23, 31.65, 31.46. Resistance 33.42, 34.83, and 35.58.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks on 7/22/11, confirming a short-term uptrend. USO also closed above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. The major trend for USO might be described best as neutral, since USO is trading at the same price levels it traded at in the summer of 2009. Support 36.93 and 35.14. Resistance 40.74 and 46.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) consolidated gains at a high level in recent days. GLD rose above previous all-time price highs on 7/18/11, reconfirming a major long-term uptrend. In a world of too much debt and weak currencies, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only true-forever money. Support: 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 156.58.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative (to the Gold bullion ETF) Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 7 weeks on 7/22/11, reconfirming a short-term uptrend. But GDX fell below 27-month lows on 6/17/11, which was a bearish indication for the long term. The Ratio is still down substantially since its peak on 4/8/11, and the main trend remains bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) consolidated gains in recent days. SLV rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 7/18/11, confirming a medium-term uptrend. Silver also appears to have emerged on the bullish side of a 2-month Triangle Consolidation. Support 34.02 and 31.97. Resistance: 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 9 weeks on 7/18/11, confirming a short-term minor uptrend. The Ratio was in a downtrend from a peak on 4/28/11 to a low on 6/27/11. The SLV/GLD Ratio is in a bullish position relative to 50- and 200-day SMAs.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) rose above the highs of the previous 3 months on 7/19/11, confirming a preexisting medium-term uptrend. JJC has been in a bullish trend since bottoming at 51.13 on 5/11/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while Weakness suggests doubts about the future. Support 56.92, 55.50, 52.93, 52.12, 51.13. Resistance: 60.04 and 61.69.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 8 trading days on 7/21/11, suggesting a short-term price pullback. The U.S. debt ceiling blame game in Washington may offer an unquantifiable risk for the financial markets. Technically, larger trends still appear bullish since TLT bottomed at 88.14 on 2/9/11. Support 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 97.90, 102.27, 106.10, 107.05, and 109.32.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has consolidated losses since breaking down below 9-month lows on 6/16/11 and thereby confirming a major downtrend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) remains in a long-term downtrend. That means fixed-income investors prefer the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 7/21/11, suggesting a downtrend. In addition, UUP fell below the lower boundary line of a Symmetrical Triangle Consolidation Pattern from the low at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.01 and 20.84. Resistance 21.74, 21.86, and 22.21.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 46.2% Bulls versus 21.5% Bears as of 7/20/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio rose to 2.15, which suggests moderate bullish complacency when compared to 20-year range of 0.41 to 3.74, a median of 1.56, and a mean of 1.64.
VIX Fear Index collapsed below the lows of the previous 8-weeks, plunging to 15.12 intraday on 7/1/11, in a surprisingly rapid swing to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.
As of the close on June 6, 2011, the Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction (a significant downside correction) for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 10-week lows. Previously, as of June 1, 2011, the Dow Theory gave a warning of a significant downside correction for the general stock market, as the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed below 5-week lows.
As of the close on July 1, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above all previous closing price highs but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average failed to confirm.
As of the close on July 21, 2011, the Dow Theory suggested a divergence and non-confirmation as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above its closing prices of the previous 2 months but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average failed to confirm a similar breakout above its recent trading range.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,345.02) rose 1.22 points or 0.09% on Friday, July 22, 2011.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1295.92, low of 7/18/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.12% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.43% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.98% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.73% Networking, IGN
1.43% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.21% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.20% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.06% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.03% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.97% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.92% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.87% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.83% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.82% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.80% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.76% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.70% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.70% Australia Index, EWA
0.68% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.62% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.62% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.62% China 25 iS, FXI
0.61% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.59% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.57% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.55% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.54% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.53% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.52% Mexico Index, EWW
0.51% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.51% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.50% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.49% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.47% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.46% Energy DJ, IYE
0.45% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.44% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.43% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.43% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.42% Singapore Index, EWS
0.41% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.39% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.38% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.38% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.38% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.37% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.37% Energy Global, IXC
0.35% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.34% Germany Index, EWG
0.34% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.33% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.33% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.32% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.27% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.24% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.24% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.23% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.23% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.22% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.21% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.21% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.20% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.20% South Korea Index, EWY
0.19% France Index, EWQ
0.19% Dividend International, PID
0.18% Japan Index, EWJ
0.17% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.15% Belgium Index, EWK
0.14% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.13% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.13% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.13% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.12% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.11% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.10% EAFE Index, EFA
0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.10% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.10% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.09% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.08% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.08% Russia MV, RSX
0.07% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.07% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.07% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.06% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.06% Canada Index, EWC
0.06% Global 100, IOO
0.05% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.02% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.03% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.03% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.06% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.07% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.09% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.11% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.11% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.12% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.12% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.13% India PS, PIN
-0.14% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.17% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.19% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.19% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.20% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.22% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.22% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.24% Spain Index, EWP
-0.25% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.26% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.27% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.28% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.29% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.30% Water Resources, PHO
-0.33% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.34% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.34% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.36% Italy Index, EWI
-0.36% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.40% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.42% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.46% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.47% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.52% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.53% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.55% Austria Index, EWO
-0.57% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.62% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.70% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.90% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.05% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-3.13% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
