- Dollar Lacks Direction On Holiday Trade, Choppy Price Action To Carry Into Friday
- Euro Holds Steady As It Tests the 100-Day SMA For Support
- British Pound To Face Headwinds as Speculation For Further Easing Resurface
Dollar Lacks Direction On Holiday Trade, Choppy Price Action To Carry Into Friday
U.S. dollar price action was mixed throughout the North American trade, with most of the major currencies holding a narrow range during the day, and the greenback may continue to face choppy price action going into Friday as market liquidity thins ahead of the weekend. As European policy makers continue to talk down fears surrounding the debt crisis, the rebound in risk appetite could bear down on the reserve currency, but the rise in market sentiment is likely to be short-lived as market participants speculate the EU to expand the European Financial Stability Facility.
The Dollar Index edged lower after rising to 80.00 for the first time since September, and the recent rally in the greenback may gather pace in December as the uncertainties surrounding the global economic outlook weighs on market sentiment. Indeed, we saw the EUR/USD bounce back from the 100-Day moving average (1.3303) to hold within the previous day’s range, and the exchange rate may continue to trend sideways going into the end of the week as it continues to search for support. At the same time, the USD/CHF advanced to parity for the first time since September, and the exchange rate may continue to push higher in the days ahead as it breaks out of the narrow range that was carried over from the previous week. As the economic docket for Friday remains fairly light, we should see risk trends dictate price action going into the Asian trade, but the drop in liquidity is likely to produce difficult trading conditions given the shortened U.S. trading session scheduled for tomorrow.
Related:Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum, Currency Markets to Turn Choppy on Thin Speculative Liquidity
Euro Holds Steady As It Tests the 100-Day SMA For Support
The Euro appears to be carving a bottom around the 100-Day SMA as European leaders talk down the risks for the region, but the current price development could turn out to be a short-term consolidation rather than a reversal as the risks for contagion continues to weigh on the economic outlook. As the EUR/USD pares the rally from September, we could see another break to the downside as market participants speculate Portugal and Spain to seek assistance in the near future, but the pair should be able to find near-term support around the 200-Day SMA at 1.3133, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3100-30.
British Pound To Face Headwinds as Speculation For Further Easing Resurface
The mixed testimony by the Bank of England suggests that the central bank may look to expand monetary policy further over the coming months as they expect the tough austerity measures in the U.K. to bear down on the economic recovery, and the British Pound could face increased headwinds in the days ahead as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. However, as the GBP/USD continues to trade above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.5690-1.5700, there could be a short-term correction as we head into the following week, but speculation for an expansion in quantitative easing could spur a selloff in the sterling as policy makers maintain a cautious outlook for the economy.
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ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
|
Currency |
GMT |
Release |
Survey |
Previous |
Comments |
|
JPY |
23:30 |
Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Tokyo consumer prices ex-fresh food declined annually in the last eighteen months. |
|
JPY |
23:30 |
Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (NOV) |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
|
JPY |
23:30 |
Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (NOV) |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
|
|
JPY |
23:30 |
National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) |
0.2% |
-0.6% |
Japanese consumer prices excluding fresh food fell more than 1.0% drop expected by economists. |
|
JPY |
23:30 |
National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (OCT) |
-0.5% |
-1.1% |
|
|
JPY |
23:30 |
National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (OCT) |
-0.9% |
-1.5% |
|
|
JPY |
23:50 |
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (NOV 19) |
725.2B |
Japanese investors were net buyers of foreign bonds during the week ended November 12, buying 725.2 billion yen in overseas bonds. |
|
|
JPY |
23:50 |
Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (NOV 19) |
3.8B |
||
|
JPY |
23:50 |
Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (NOV 19) |
64.0B |
||
|
JPY |
23:50 |
Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (NOV 19) |
100.2B |
||
|
EUR |
German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (NOV P) |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
German inflation held steady in October as a stronger euro helped counter higher energy prices. |
|
|
EUR |
German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV P) |
1.3% |
1.3% |
||
|
EUR |
German Consumer Price Index – EU Harmonised (MoM) (NOV P) |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
||
|
EUR |
German Consumer Price Index – EU Harmonised (YoY) (NOV P) |
1.4% |
1.3% |
||
|
EUR |
7:45 |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) (OCT) |
-0.5% |
1.5% |
Spending probably fell in October for a second time in three months. |
|
EUR |
7:45 |
French Consumer Spending (YoY) (OCT) |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
|
EUR |
9:00 |
Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (OCT) |
1.1% |
0.8% |
M3 likely increased in October for a fourth consecutive 3-month period. |
|
EUR |
9:00 |
Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (OCT) |
1.3% |
1.0% |
|
|
CHF |
10:30 |
KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (NOV) |
2.11 |
2.17 |
Declined in the last four months. |
|
EUR |
17:00 |
French Total Jobseekers Change (OCT) |
4.6 |
French jobless claims rose in September, nearing a 5-year high. |
|
|
EUR |
17:00 |
French Total Jobseekers (OCT) |
2697.1 |
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE – 18:00 GMT
|
Currency |
EUR/USD |
GBP/USD |
USD/JPY |
USD/CHF |
USD/CAD |
AUD/USD |
NZD/USD |
EUR/JPY |
GBP/JPY |
|
Resist 2 |
1.3840 |
1.6715 |
89.00 |
1.0460 |
1.0922 |
1.0600 |
0.8230 |
127.60 |
146.05 |
|
Resist 1 |
1.3700 |
1.6420 |
86.00 |
1.0000 |
1.0750 |
1.0200 |
0.8000 |
120.00 |
140.00 |
|
Spot |
1.3367 |
1.5762 |
83.60 |
1.0007 |
1.0090 |
0.9808 |
0.7613 |
111.74 |
131.77 |
|
Support 1 |
1.3335 |
1.5650 |
80.00 |
0.9500 |
0.9950 |
0.9640 |
0.6850 |
103.80 |
125.00 |
|
Support 2 |
1.2925 |
1.5500 |
75.00 |
0.9000 |
0.9700 |
0.9375 |
0.6585 |
100.00 |
119.00 |
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
|
Currency |
USD/MXN |
USD/TRY |
USD/ZAR |
USD/HKD |
USD/SGD |
Currency |
USD/SEK |
USD/DKK |
USD/NOK |
|
Resist 2 |
14.4500 |
1.6755 |
8.7915 |
7.8165 |
1.4945 |
Resist 2 |
7.7500 |
5.7800 |
6.2750 |
|
Resist 1 |
13.8500 |
1.4865 |
8.3675 |
7.8075 |
1.4655 |
Resist 1 |
7.5800 |
5.5400 |
6.1150 |
|
Spot |
12.3847 |
1.4700 |
7.0463 |
7.7597 |
1.3068 |
Spot |
6.9368 |
5.5781 |
6.0824 |
|
Support 1 |
12.0500 |
1.3665 |
6.6950 |
7.7490 |
1.2750 |
Support 1 |
6.4500 |
5.2625 |
5.7030 |
|
Support 2 |
11.7200 |
1.3475 |
6.4300 |
7.7450 |
1.2500 |
Support 2 |
6.1250 |
5.1000 |
5.5200 |
INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT
|
Currency |
EUR/USD |
GBP/USD |
USD/JPY |
USD/CHF |
USD/CAD |
AUD/USD |
NZD/USD |
EUR/JPY |
GBP/JPY |
|
Resist 2 |
1.3447 |
1.5829 |
83.87 |
1.0068 |
1.0145 |
0.9896 |
0.7669 |
112.46 |
132.39 |
|
Resist 1 |
1.3407 |
1.5795 |
83.73 |
1.0037 |
1.0117 |
0.9852 |
0.7641 |
112.10 |
132.08 |
|
Pivot |
1.3347 |
1.5761 |
83.57 |
0.9991 |
1.0097 |
0.9807 |
0.7600 |
111.56 |
131.73 |
|
Support 1 |
1.3307 |
1.5727 |
83.43 |
0.9960 |
1.0069 |
0.9763 |
0.7572 |
111.20 |
131.42 |
|
Support 2 |
1.3247 |
1.5693 |
83.27 |
0.9914 |
1.0049 |
0.9718 |
0.7531 |
110.66 |
131.07 |
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
|
Currency |
EUR/USD |
GBP/USD |
USD/JPY |
USD/CHF |
USD/CAD |
AUD/USD |
NZD/USD |
EUR/JPY |
GBP/JPY |
|
Resist. 3 |
1.3562 |
1.5943 |
84.56 |
1.0138 |
1.0208 |
0.9958 |
0.7732 |
113.45 |
133.75 |
|
Resist. 2 |
1.3513 |
1.5898 |
84.32 |
1.0105 |
1.0178 |
0.9921 |
0.7702 |
113.02 |
133.26 |
|
Resist. 1 |
1.3464 |
1.5852 |
84.08 |
1.0072 |
1.0149 |
0.9883 |
0.7672 |
112.59 |
132.76 |
|
Spot |
1.3367 |
1.5762 |
83.60 |
1.0007 |
1.0090 |
0.9808 |
0.7613 |
111.74 |
131.77 |
|
Support 1 |
1.3270 |
1.5672 |
83.12 |
0.9942 |
1.0031 |
0.9733 |
0.7554 |
110.89 |
130.78 |
|
Support 2 |
1.3221 |
1.5626 |
82.88 |
0.9909 |
1.0002 |
0.9695 |
0.7524 |
110.46 |
130.28 |
|
Support 3 |
1.3172 |
1.5581 |
82.64 |
0.9876 |
0.9972 |
0.9658 |
0.7494 |
110.03 |
129.79 |
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