U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral).
On Tuesday, U.S. stock market price indexes opened strongly higher but surrendered nearly all of the early gains by 2:51 p.m. A partial recovery in the final 69 minutes resulted in moderate net gains for the day. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,639.77, up 0.42%) closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, above the previous day’s close, and still below its widely-watched 50-day SMA.
MACD(12,26,9), a popular short-term daily price momentum oscillator based on SPX, has been trending straight down for nearly a month and fell to its lowest level since November, 2012, on Tuesday. With such a bearish divergence, MACD currently offers no encouragement for a stock market price upturn anytime soon.
For the medium term, SPX remains below its highs of May, June, July, and August, suggesting neutral/sideways price momentum at best.
NYSE total volume rose 37% to a level 12% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line rose moderately on Tuesday. Last Friday 8/30/13, it confirmed its preexisting month-long downward trend when it fell below its lowest levels of the previous 8 weeks. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE also rose moderately. Both Volume and Breadth lines remain below their 50-day SMAs. Previously, both failed to rise above their May highs when the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
The Net Number of New Highs-Lows remained bearish again on Tuesday, that is, there were fewer New Highs than New Lows. Previously, the Net Number remained far below its May high at the August highs for the price indexes, thereby warning of bearish divergence ahead of the downturn of the price indexes.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The action since then looks like a developing Secondary Reaction to the downside, however. On 8/27/13, both Averages fell below their lows of the previous 7 weeks. Apart from the strict form of the Dow Theory, the Transportation Average whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMAs again on 8/27/13 to confirm similar weakness in the Industrial Average, which has remained below its 50-day SMA every day since 8/15/13. Both Averages remain systematically neutral.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/29/13. Absolute price of QQQ rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13, and remains systematically bearish.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, and remains systematically bearish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. This year, absolute price of EFA peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13, fell to a 6-month low at 56.44 on 6/24/13, and has turned choppy within that price range.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) is systematically bullish. IWM/SPY whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price whipsawed around its 50-day SMA since 8/19/13 and is currently systematically neutral below the 50-day SMA.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) is systematically neutral. MDY/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed around its 50-day SMA since 8/19/13 and is currently systematically neutral below the 50-day SMA.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 weeks and whipsawed above its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, however, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose further above its highs of the previous 15 months on 8/28/13, again confirming its preexisting systematically bullish trend. Support 36.99, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 8/27/13. The GLD price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, however, so GLD is far from turning systematically bullish. Support: 131.51, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 8/27/13. SLV price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, however, so SLV is far from turning systematically bullish. Support 22.02, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 19 weeks on 8/26/13. SLV/GLD crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, however, so JJC is far from turning systematically bullish. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.18% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
2.00% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.95% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
2.57% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.80% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
1.02% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
3.82% , CIEN.O , CIENA
0.56% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
0.56% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.31% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
1.36% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.48% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
1.99% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
0.79% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
4.70% , CBS , CBS CORP.
2.35% , IR , INGER RAND
2.54% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
0.83% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
4.40% , MBI , MBIA
2.94% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
2.60% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
3.05% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
4.28% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
3.56% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.61% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.36% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.69% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
2.60% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
2.78% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
2.34% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.43% , KBH , KB HOME
0.57% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.31% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.87% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
-4.55% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-0.07% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-2.89% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-1.10% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-2.33% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.05% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.16% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-2.45% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-2.04% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-2.12% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-0.72% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-1.28% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-1.18% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.13% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-1.20% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-1.45% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-0.16% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.59% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-0.60% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-0.84% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.51% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-4.47% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.15% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.87% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.67% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.88% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-1.00% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.86% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.44% , NI , NISOURCE
-0.66% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-0.38% , ETN , EATON
-0.85% , GLW , CORNING
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.50% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
3.13% , China 25 iS, FXI
2.94% , Australia Index, EWA
2.60% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.57% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.48% , Japan Index, EWJ
2.40% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.38% , Sweden Index, EWD
2.34% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.18% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.18% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.00% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.99% , Italy Index, EWI
1.93% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.83% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.82% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.77% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.76% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.74% , Spain Index, EWP
1.67% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.61% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.48% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.45% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.43% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.43% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.36% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.34% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.33% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.25% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.23% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.15% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.11% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.04% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.01% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.00% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.99% , Networking, IGN
0.96% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.95% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.95% , Energy Global, IXC
0.93% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.84% , France Index, EWQ
0.83% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.83% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.79% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.79% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.79% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.74% , Global 100, IOO
0.74% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.73% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.71% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.71% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.70% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.69% , Canada Index, EWC
0.68% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.66% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.65% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.64% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.64% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.63% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.61% , Austria Index, EWO
0.60% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.59% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.58% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.57% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.57% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.56% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.55% , Germany Index, EWG
0.53% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.52% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.52% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.51% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.51% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.50% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.50% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.50% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.49% , Dividend International, PID
0.48% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.48% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.45% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.45% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.43% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.43% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.42% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.41% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.40% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.40% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.39% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.39% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.36% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.36% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.36% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.35% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.34% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.31% , Water Resources, PHO
0.29% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.25% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.24% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.23% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.22% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.19% , Russia MV, RSX
0.18% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.16% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.15% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.14% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.14% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.14% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.10% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.09% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.08% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.07% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.03% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.08% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.16% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.21% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.33% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.35% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.37% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.37% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.41% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.43% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.50% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.61% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.66% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.72% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.72% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.83% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.84% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.86% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.87% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.88% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.90% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.00% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.05% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-1.12% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.15% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.18% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.67% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.98% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.17% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-4.47% , India PS, PIN
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1661.53, 50-day SMA
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1651.35, high of 9/3/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1563.60, 200-day SMA
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
