U.S. stocks ended the first quarter of 2013 on a high.

Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/27/13, thereby turning systematically neutral.

Materials (XLB) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 3/28/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.

Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 3/28/13, again confirming its established systematically bearish major trend.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 3/27/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. EFA/SPY remains systematically neutral.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 16 months on 3/28/13, again confirming a major downtrend. OEF/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 12/17/12, when the 50-day SMA. crossed below 200-day SMA.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the past 7-months on 3/27/13 thereby confirming its medium-term uptrend. UUP turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/7/13, and it appears to be heading toward a bullish 50/200 SMA crossover in days ahead.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically bullish on 3/26/13 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/28/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/19/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. JJC turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 2/19/13, and it appears to be heading toward a bearish 50/200 SMA crossover in days ahead.

U.S. stocks ended the first quarter of 2013 on a high. Encouraged by an overnight bounce in European stocks, U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday and added to early gains. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,569.19) finished higher by 0.41%, Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.36%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 1.00%. Breadth was positive, with 2507 Advances and 1448 Declines. Volume on the NYSE rose 11% to a level matching its 200-day SMA.

Not all stock market indicators are on the same page now. The S&P 500 Composite Index finally overcame resistance at 1,565.15, which was its record high close set on 10/9/2007. The Nasdaq Composite Index remains 35.28% below its closing price high of 5,048.62 set on 3/10/2000.

The Dow Theory last confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 3/14/13, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed at new price highs. The Transportation Average has been diverging somewhat since then, however. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average (now at 14,578.54) closed at a new high on 3/28/13, while the Dow-Jones Transportation Average (6,255.33) closed 0.41% below its previous closing high of 6,281.24 set on 3/14/13. If both Averages close below their closing price lows of the latest minor dip on 3/21/13, that might signal a more significant downside reaction. The closing price lows to watch out for are 14,421.49 for the Industrial Average and 6,117.20 for the Transportation Average.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1538.57, low of 3/19/2013
1523.67, 50-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1435.09, 200-day SMA
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/22/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences since 2/1/13. Support 114.62, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 119.67, 120.70, 123.71, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IEF formed a technical base after hitting an “oversold” low at 105.56 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low 3 times. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences since 2/1/13. Support 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.07, 108.15, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. JNK/LQD has been neutral for most of the past 3 years, and it seems questionable whether this long-term trend is changing in any sustainable way.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. Longer term, TIP/IEF has been neutral for most of the past 3 years. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically neutral.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the past 7-months on 3/27/13 thereby confirming its medium-term uptrend. UUP turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/7/13, and it appears to be heading toward a bullish 50/200 SMA crossover in days ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.35, 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/19/13, again confirming its major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically bullish on 3/26/13 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.87, 32.16, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 2/20/13 and appears to be consolidating losses in recent weeks. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 150.84, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/27/13, confirming its major downtrend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 27.35, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/28/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. SLV/GLD remains neutral below both its 50-day SMA and its 200-day SMA.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/19/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. JJC turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 2/19/13, when it crossed below the 50-day SMA. JJC appears to be heading toward a bearish 50/200 SMA crossover in days ahead. JJC has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness of Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
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Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.13% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.67% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
4.13% , EBAY , EBAY
2.63% , TYC , TYCO INTL
5.44% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
1.78% , FISV , FISERV
1.93% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
2.00% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
1.54% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
2.01% , DRI , DARDEN REST
1.72% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.21% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
1.47% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
0.91% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.68% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
1.19% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.68% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
0.58% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
2.31% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
3.25% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
1.76% , PPL , PPL
1.98% , NI , NISOURCE
2.17% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
1.75% , CHD , Church & Dwight
2.36% , AMGN , AMGEN
1.19% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
1.41% , KMX , CarMax
3.21% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
1.90% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
2.02% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
1.37% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.95% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
1.19% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.58% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-3.68% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.68% , DE , DEERE & CO
-1.89% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-1.86% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-1.26% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-1.02% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-2.77% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-0.68% , LOW , LOWES
-1.14% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-0.84% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-1.54% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-1.48% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-0.51% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-0.49% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.91% , UIS , UNISYS
-0.40% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-0.12% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.02% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.22% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-0.12% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.52% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
-0.18% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.16% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.23% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-0.14% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.08% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.28% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-1.21% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-0.07% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.75% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.06% , GOOG , Google
-0.34% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.63% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.22% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.16% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.13% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.07% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.05% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.01% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.96% , France Index, EWQ
0.95% , Russia MV, RSX
0.94% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.92% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.91% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.89% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.79% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.78% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.77% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.74% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.73% , India PS, PIN
0.72% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.72% , Dividend International, PID
0.71% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.71% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.70% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.70% , Water Resources, PHO
0.70% , Germany Index, EWG
0.69% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.68% , Italy Index, EWI
0.68% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.68% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.67% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.66% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.65% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.65% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.64% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.64% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.64% , Spain Index, EWP
0.63% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.62% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.60% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.58% , Austria Index, EWO
0.58% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.56% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.55% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.54% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.53% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.51% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.49% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.48% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.48% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.48% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.47% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.46% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.46% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.46% , Canada Index, EWC
0.46% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.45% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.41% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.40% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.38% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.38% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.36% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.36% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.36% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.36% , Global 100, IOO
0.35% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.35% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.35% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.34% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.34% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.33% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.32% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.32% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.31% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.31% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.31% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.30% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.29% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.29% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.29% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.29% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.28% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.28% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.27% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.25% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.25% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.24% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.23% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.21% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.21% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.21% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.21% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.20% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.19% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.19% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.19% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.18% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.18% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.16% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.15% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.15% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.13% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.13% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.12% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.10% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.05% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.05% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.04% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.04% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.03% , Networking, IGN
0.02% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.00% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.06% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.07% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.08% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.12% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.12% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.14% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.16% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.18% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.19% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.20% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.22% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.23% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.23% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.29% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.29% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.31% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.32% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.34% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.36% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.51% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.57% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.94% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.98% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.08% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.12% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.19% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.45% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA