Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA. USO remains systematically neutral.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,461.19) fell 4.58 points or 0.31% on Monday.

RSI(14) for the SPX turned down but still is in the extreme overbought zone that has marked previous stock market highs. Now at 71.45, RSI(14) is nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.

NYSE volume fell 31% to a level 7% below its 200-day SMA on Friday. Average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, and fell further in September, 2012, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years last week, on Tuesday 9/11/12, and both are still trending downward.

On-Balance Volume for the SPX remains below its highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating relative weakness and bearish divergence.

NYSE Cumulative Volume of Advancing Stocks minus Volume of Declining Stocks remains below its March high, thereby demonstrating relative weakness and bearish divergence. Clearly, volume has not been confirming the price up move.

It takes volume to push prices up. After the shorts have been forced to cover and the longs have had their fill of buying, in the absence of a fresh source of demand, stocks fall of their own weight.

While the S&P 500 Composite Price Index rose to a new 4-year high, both the percentage of these same 500 stocks that are above their 200-day SMAs (now at 81.80, down from a peak above 85 in March) and the percentage in bullish Point-and-Figure Chart uptrends (now at 79.00, down from a peak above 85 in February) failed to confirm that higher high. Both market breadth indicators still are diverging bearishly compared to the S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index.

Investor sentiment data indicates alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency as the stock price indexes rise above their 2012 market highs. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean, as it did during the -10% April-June 2012 downside price correction for the stock market.

The technical condition of the stock market does not support the optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Over the past 3 months, those who gambled on Fed and ECB threats to print money have won. But that does not mean that stock prices will continue to rise now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction. A downside correction seems due. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose above its closing price highs of the previous 4-years on 9/14/12, but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average languished below previous highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 9/14/12, thereby turning systematically bullish again. QQQ/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 8/5/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. BKF/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. EEM/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/7/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. EFA/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/14/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA.. OEF/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. IWM/SPY rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/14/12, but its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) MDY/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. MDY/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been below its 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1394.75, 50-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1349.82, 200-day SMA
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP ‘s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11, but that 50-200 spread is narrowing. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index turned systematically bullish on 9/13/12 when its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA. CRB remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains above its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA on 9/1712. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowing for 6 weeks. Support 34.97, 34.34, 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 9/14/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 8/3/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. The 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, however, and a bullish crossover appears probable in weeks ahead. Support: 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 172.23, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 9/13/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11, but the 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing and a crossover seems possible in weeks ahead. Support 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 33.75, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing over the past 3 weeks, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD remains strong.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 9/14/12. JJC rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has begun to narrow over the past few weeks, however. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this strengthening from bearish to neutral may be suggesting less pessimism about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.41% , GPS , GAP
6.09% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
5.26% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
0.24% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
2.82% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.23% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.35% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
0.80% , GCI , GANNETT
0.88% , BCR , C R BARD
0.73% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
1.35% , CL , COLGATE
0.12% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.53% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.46% , ORCL , ORACLE
0.59% , EFX , EQUIFAX
0.36% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
0.11% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.90% , WPO , Washington Post
0.78% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
0.41% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.11% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.05% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.16% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.19% , AN , AUTONATION
0.10% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.50% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-2.96% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.61% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.82% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.73% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.08% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.12% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-5.09% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.76% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.75% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-5.07% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-2.83% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.35% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.40% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-1.54% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.66% , PCG , PG&E
-2.70% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.64% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-1.12% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-3.34% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.38% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.86% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-1.20% , CTAS , CINTAS
-5.78% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-2.76% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.37% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.80% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-4.69% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-0.69% , CLX , CLOROX
-0.63% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-1.29% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-0.81% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.77% , IP , INTL PAPER
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.20% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.05% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.58% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.36% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.34% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.28% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.28% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.23% Belgium Index, EWK
0.21% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.20% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.16% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.10% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.10% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.05% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.04% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.03% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.03% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.09% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.09% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.10% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.12% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.12% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.13% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.13% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.13% Spain Index, EWP
-0.14% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.16% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.19% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.20% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.24% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.24% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.25% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.26% Germany Index, EWG
-0.27% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.27% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.28% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.29% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.30% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.31% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.33% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.34% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.34% Global 100, IOO
-0.37% Italy Index, EWI
-0.37% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.38% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.38% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.39% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.39% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.41% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.41% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.43% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.43% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.44% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.44% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.45% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.46% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.47% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.48% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.50% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.51% Dividend International, PID
-0.52% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.52% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.53% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.54% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.54% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.54% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.55% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.55% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.56% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.56% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.56% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.57% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.59% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.61% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.63% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.64% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.67% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.67% Austria Index, EWO
-0.68% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.69% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.69% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.69% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.72% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.72% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.73% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.73% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.75% Canada Index, EWC
-0.76% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.76% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.78% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.80% France Index, EWQ
-0.80% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.81% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.81% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.82% India PS, PIN
-0.82% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.84% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.85% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.88% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.89% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.90% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.90% Energy Global, IXC
-0.92% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.95% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.95% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.95% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.99% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.99% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.02% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.02% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.02% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.03% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.06% Networking, IGN
-1.08% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.09% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.09% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.14% Australia Index, EWA
-1.16% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.17% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.18% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.28% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.31% Water Resources, PHO
-1.32% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.46% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.53% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.54% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.54% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.55% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.61% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.71% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.82% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.10% Russia MV, RSX
-2.56% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.70% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.76% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.83% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.96% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO