ALARON US TREASURY FUTURES REPORT 05/27/09
ECONOMIC DATA 05/28/09: all times EST
- 8:30 AM US DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (0.0%), US JOBLESS CLAIMS (635K)
- 10:00 AM US NEW HOME SALES (360K)
- 10:35 AM EIA INVENTORY (NATURAL GAS)
- 11:00 AM EIA INVENTORY (CRUDE OIL, PRODUCTS CAPACITY)
- 1:00 US 7 YEAR NOTE AUCTION ($26 B)
SUMMARY OF DATA 05/27/09
EXISTING HOME SALES (4.68 M VS 4.67 M)
US 5 YEAR NOTE AUCTION (BID TO COVER 2.32, YIELD 2.310%)
US TREASURIES HIT THE SKIDS AS SUPPLY CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN TRUMP BETTER THAN EXPECTED US AUCTION RESULTS.
US TREASURIES led the negative sentiment in the financial markets today as concern about current and future supplies of government debt created a snowball plummeting effect on the long end of the yield curve. Today’s well received 5 year note auction was the equivalent of a tree falling in the woods- did it make a sound? Yields continue to rise on the ever increasing supply concerns as the support offered to the markets by the Federal Reserve purchases of US debt has dissipated. Confidence in the Fed’s ability to support the trillions of dollars worth of US securities flooding the markets in the name of economic stabilization has waned extensively since it announced back in March of its plan to buy $300 billion worth of federal debt. The perception is that the Fed’s support is essentially a drop in the bucket that will offer little sustainable support for these markets as deficit levels increase and the balance sheets and higher yields of alternative debt sources become more attractive.
Technically, June Futures broke through two major levels of support at 117-30 and 117-20. This move targeted a large gap that has been open since November of 2008. The market’s next key support level is at 115-090, if this level breaks- look for a setup to test a long term target of 112-150- the initial support level for the move to 140-000 back in December. In the short term, look for an upward retracement target of 116-240, with resistance setting up at 117-170.
|
US DEBT FUTURES |
OPEN |
HIGH |
CHANGE |
||
|
US M9 (US 30 YRS) |
118-025 |
118-180 |
115-235 |
116-220 |
-1-31/32nds |
|
TY M9 (US 10 YRS) |
118-100 |
118-220 |
117-045 |
117-165 |
-1-07/32nds |
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
