Utilities stock sector ETF (XLU) Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 7 weeks on 6/30/14, thereby confirming its systematically bullish trend. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 6 years on 6/30/14, thereby reconfirming its systematically bullish trend.
Industrial stock sector ETF (XLI) Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 6/30/14 and fell further below its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/30/14.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 6/30/14.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 6/30/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.
Consumer Staples stock sector ETF (XLP) Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 6/30/14 and fell further below its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/30/14. OEF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/24/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 6/30/14–this after falling below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, and thereby reconfirming its long-term bearish trend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,960.23, down 0.04%) absolute price attempted to rise during the first hour on Monday but failed to capitalize on widely-expected, end-of-quarter seasonal strength. SPX closed very near the open, the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and Friday’s close. The resulting Doji Candlestick implies indecision and loss of upside momentum.
NYSE total volume fell 20% to a level 10% below its 200-day SMA, reflecting annual adjustments to the Russell indexes. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 491, all year 2014 has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 turned down after hitting an overbought level above 94 on 6/23/14.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum turned down on 6/24/14 after failing to match the recent highs of 6/10/14. In addition, year-to-date 2014, momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index consistently remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
For the very short term, end/beginning of month and pre-holiday (4th of July) seasonal tendencies have been bullish historically. Longer term, the stock market trend remains bullish. The overwhelming bullish majority appears to be going on faith that central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies will make stocks rise ever higher–while ignoring the obvious fact that central banks have failed to prevent numerous substantial market declines in the past.
On the cautious side, which is being dismissed by the overwhelming bullish majority, stock prices are overbought and overvalued. Sentiment indicators are off the charts. Bearish divergences are accumulating. There is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always). These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/9/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Both Averages have shown bearish divergences relative to the S&P 500 since 6/9/14.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/30/14. QQQ/SPY remains systematically neutral because the 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA. Nevertheless, the 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 6/5/14 such that a bullish crossover appears to be likely in weeks ahead. Absolute price of QQQ has been making 13-year highs and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/30/14. OEF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/24/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has firmed up since 5/21/14 and is now systematically neutral. Absolute price has been stuck in a trading range between 107.44 and 120.58 since 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has firmed up since 5/21/14 and is now systematically neutral. Absolute price rose new high on 6/30/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 6/30/14–this after falling below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, and thereby reconfirming its long-term bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.60, 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/5/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 6/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 37.21, 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 6/30/14 but remains systematically neutral. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA since 5/28/14. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/23/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price also rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/24/14 and remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 6/25/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 6/26/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 6/30/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.75% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.26% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.94% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.81% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.65% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
3.45% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
1.09% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
4.70% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.38% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.14% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
2.99% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
2.08% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.44% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.30% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.15% , IGV , Software, IGV
2.49% , ECL , ECOLAB
0.45% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.31% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.95% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.71% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.20% , DOV , DOVER
3.15% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
0.44% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.14% , K , KELLOGG
1.29% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
0.86% , APA , APACHE
0.71% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
0.75% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
0.79% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.28% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
0.74% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.19% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
1.06% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.60% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.18% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-3.92% , MBI , MBIA
-0.25% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-1.36% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.97% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.57% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-0.77% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-1.09% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-1.06% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.49% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.04% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-1.92% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-0.84% , AET , AETNA
-0.22% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-0.17% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.02% , BA , BOEING
-1.09% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-0.83% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-1.43% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.71% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-0.54% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-0.83% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-0.22% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.74% , OMC , OMNICOM
-0.73% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.60% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-0.60% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.79% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-0.55% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.24% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.04% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-0.17% , DIA , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.94% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.38% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.10% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.09% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.03% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.81% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.81% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.81% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.80% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.79% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.74% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.71% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.71% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.70% , India PS, PIN
0.65% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.65% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.57% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.52% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.50% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.50% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.46% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.46% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.45% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.44% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.43% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.43% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.43% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.41% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.40% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.40% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.39% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.37% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.36% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.36% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.35% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.34% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.32% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.32% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.31% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.30% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.30% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.29% , Networking, IGN
0.28% , Canada Index, EWC
0.28% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.27% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.26% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.26% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.25% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.23% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.23% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.20% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.19% , Germany Index, EWG
0.18% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.17% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.15% , Austria Index, EWO
0.14% , Energy Global, IXC
0.14% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.14% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.13% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.12% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.11% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.11% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.11% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.09% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.08% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.08% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.08% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.08% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.07% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.07% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.07% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.06% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.06% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.05% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.05% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.05% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.05% , Spain Index, EWP
0.05% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.04% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.04% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.03% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.02% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.02% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.01% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Global 100, IOO
0.00% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.00% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.00% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.00% , Dividend International, PID
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.02% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.04% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.04% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.04% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.05% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.08% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.08% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.08% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.09% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.09% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.10% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.10% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.11% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.11% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.13% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.16% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.17% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.17% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.17% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.19% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.22% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.22% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.23% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.24% , France Index, EWQ
-0.24% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.25% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.25% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.26% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.28% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.31% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.33% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.39% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.42% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.42% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.46% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.48% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.49% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.52% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.53% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.56% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.60% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.69% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.75% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.97% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.14% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.36% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.61% , Russia MV, RSX
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1968.17, high of 6/24/14
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1911.49, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1826.29, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009