The video clips below come via my hotel room at Dana Point, California, where I am attending a conference hosted by Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates. Also present are financial luminaries such as Peter Bernstein, Burton Malkiel, Harry Markowitz and Jack Treynor. It will be fascinating to hear whether these gentlemen see any signs of the economy starting to bottom, and how they are investing at this juncture.
On the video front, the IMF upped its forecast of total global credit crisis-related losses to $4.1 trillion by the end of 2010 and the Congressional Oversight Panel on Tarp conducted a hearing on Capitol Hill, whereas a host of commentators – including Martin Feldstein, Joseph Stiglitz, Nouriel Roubini, Frederic Mishkin, Paul McCulley and John Mauldin – weighed in with a combination of gloomy and “bottom-in-sight” economic forecasts, as well as comments on the imminent results of the bank stress tests.
Other clips worth viewing include the Charlie Rose interview with Mikhail Gorbachev and Martin Wolf’s take on the UK economy.
Enjoy the footage while I enjoy the views across the North Pacific.
Bloomberg: IMF’s Vinals says losses from crisis may hit $4 trillion
“Jose Vinals, director of monetary affairs and capital markets at the International Monetary Fund, speaks about the outlook for global losses on distressed loans and securitized assets due to financial market turmoil and the recession. Banks will shoulder about 61% of the writedowns, with insurers, pension funds and other nonbanks assuming the rest, IMF said in a report today on the state of the global financial system. The fund forecast $4.1 trillion in losses by the end of 2010 with $2.7 trillion in losses from US-originated loans and assets, compared to its estimates of $2.2 trillion in January and $1.4 trillion in October.”
Source: Bloomberg, April 21, 2009.
CNBC: Treasury’s TARP update
“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner updates the Congressional Oversight Committee on TARP.”
Source: CNBC, April 21, 2009.
Fox Business: TARP oversight panel questions Geithner
Source: Fox Business, April 21, 2009.
CNBC: Treasury hearing – Elizabeth Warren’s statements
“Congressional Oversight Panel chair Elizabeth Warren makes statements on the Treasury’s TARP update.”
Source: CNBC, April 21, 2009.
Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker: Will bank “stress tests” kill market … or government credibility?
“Believe it or not, the ‘stress tests’ that the government is performing to see how that banks will do if the economy continues to get worse were originally intended to inspire confidence.
“The government would subject the banks to all sorts of horrifying scenarios, the theory went, and it would then report that the banks had passed with flying colors – thus reassuring a nervous public that the financial system was sound.
“Alas, from the beginning, the stress tests weren’t stressful enough.The government then said it was planning to withhold the results of the stress test to avoid harming the bad banks – which defeated the whole purpose.
“Josh Rosner, managing director at Graham Fisher, is as frustrated as many analysts with the flaws of the stress tests, but he hasn’t lost all hope.Rosner cites two key dates: Friday, April 24, when the government will reveal details of the tests, and May 4, when some ‘results’ will be revealed.He says he hopes the tests will force the government to begin to differentiate between strong banks and weak banks, which he thinks is critical to the recovery process.”
Source: Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker, April 20, 2009.
YouTube: Banks go on the offensive
“Many banks are starting to take aim at customers who are falling behind on payments by increasing fees and credit card rates, much to the chagrin of the White House. Kimberly Dozier reports.”
Source: YouTube, April 19, 2009.
Forbes: The Roubini recovery
Source: Steve Forbes, Forbes, April 20, 2009.