NYSE total volume fell 10% on Friday to a level 4% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,877.86, up 0.37%) absolute price was choppy and little changed most of Friday until a modest upswing in the final 2 hours. SPX closed above the open and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 135 from 87 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index failed to rise to higher highs on 5/13/14 and continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. Momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/13/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed at new closing price highs. Such a confirmation suggests that significant stock market sectors are in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/7/14, thereby suggesting a significant downtrend. QQQ/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing so rapidly that a bearish crossover appears likely in days ahead. Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish or neutral since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 3-months on 5/15/14, crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, and remains systematically neutral.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price remains systematically neutral. Support: 122.84, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 10 months on 5/1/14. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.16, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/8/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
14.73% , JWN , NORDSTROM
14.91% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
5.06% , PIN , India PS, PIN
16.25% , JCP , JC PENNEY
8.13% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
8.05% , ADSK , AUTODESK
0.27% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
5.95% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
4.76% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
0.57% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.31% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
1.85% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
2.11% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
1.54% , RAI , Reynolds American
2.13% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.75% , BCR , C R BARD
2.62% , TIF , TIFFANY
4.63% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
1.40% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
0.82% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.30% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.39% , EMC , EMC
1.51% , KR , KROGER
1.26% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.69% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.47% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.34% , CVS , CVS
1.15% , EBAY , EBAY
0.68% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
3.42% , MAS , MASCO
1.06% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.93% , INTU , INTUIT
1.10% , PPL , PPL
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.27% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-4.34% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-3.33% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-0.91% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.84% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.35% , FISV , FISERV
-1.12% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-0.57% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-1.09% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.10% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.88% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-0.97% , UTX , UNITED TECH
-0.47% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.95% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-1.31% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-2.80% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.78% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.90% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-0.58% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-0.32% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.66% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
-1.33% , FLR , FLUOR
-0.69% , AFL , AFLAC
-0.52% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-0.92% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-1.41% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-0.26% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-0.35% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.70% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-0.13% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-0.46% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-1.11% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-0.25% , ETN , EATON
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.95% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
5.06% , India PS, PIN
2.16% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.96% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.32% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.26% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.24% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.17% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.12% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.12% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.11% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.09% , Spain Index, EWP
1.09% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.08% , Italy Index, EWI
1.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.05% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.04% , Russia MV, RSX
1.00% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.94% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.92% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.88% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.87% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.80% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.79% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.74% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.73% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.72% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.69% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.67% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.66% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.64% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.64% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.63% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.63% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.62% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.62% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.61% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.59% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.59% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.58% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.57% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.57% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.56% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.55% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.55% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.54% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.53% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.53% , Dividend International, PID
0.51% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.51% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.51% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.51% , Water Resources, PHO
0.51% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.48% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.47% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.47% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.47% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.46% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.45% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.44% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.44% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.43% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.43% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.42% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.41% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.41% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.40% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.40% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.39% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.39% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.37% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.36% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.35% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.35% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.34% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.33% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.33% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.32% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.31% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.30% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.29% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.27% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.26% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.25% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.23% , Australia Index, EWA
0.22% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.22% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.20% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.20% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.18% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.18% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.17% , Global 100, IOO
0.17% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.17% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.17% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.16% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.15% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.14% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.13% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.11% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.10% , France Index, EWQ
0.09% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.07% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.07% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.06% , Networking, IGN
0.04% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.04% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.02% , Energy Global, IXC
0.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.07% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.10% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.10% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.11% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.12% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.14% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.21% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.22% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.24% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.25% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.26% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.28% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.29% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.29% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.30% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.32% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.37% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.39% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.40% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.41% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.50% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.51% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.62% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.69% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.69% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.91% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1867.88, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1786.69, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
