Monday’s mild stock market pullback changes nothing of significance in my analysis. For the details, see yesterday’s update, below.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,429.08) fell 8.84 points or 0.61% on Monday, while NYSE volume fell 13% to a level 15% below its 200-day SMA, again suggesting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/28/12, thereby turning systematically bullish again. XLY/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 12/16/11. Support: 45.15, 44.89, 44.34, 43.01, 42.44, 41.44, 41.21, 40.83, 39.97, 39.23, 38.75, 36.33, 33.07, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance: 46.99.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/31/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. XLK/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 8/30/11. Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/26/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Price remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 12/9/11. Support: 30.17, 30.06, 29.80, 28.82, 27.91, 27.63, 27.04, 26.56, 25.89, 25.66, 25.27, 24.01, 22.60, 22.47, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance: 31.19, 32.00, 34.85, 36.40, and 39.07.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA consistently since 6/5/12. Absolute price turned systematically bullish on 6/14/12, when price crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 38.55, 38.33, 37.78, 37.18, 36.88, 36.77, 36.14, 35.38, 35.15, 34.71, 34.42, 31.68, 30.11, 29.64, 28.00, and 27.49. Resistance: none.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. XLP/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/6/12, and its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/13/12. Absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 13 years on 8/6/12. Price turned systematically bullish on 6/28/12, when price crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 35.24, 35.02, 34.45, 34.15, 33.62, 33.05, 32.70, 32.46, 31.84, 31.30, 30.19, 28.70, 28.07, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance: none.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, but its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently since 7/19/12. Absolute price remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA since 2/21/12. Support: 14.97, 14.84, 14.34, 14.09, 13.97, 13.30, 13.12, 12.86, 12.21, 11.73, 10.95, 10.83, 9.41, and 5.88. Resistance: 15.71, 16.01, 16.46, 16.75, 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA since 9/23/11. Absolute price turned systematically bullish on 9/7/12 when its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA. Support: 70.40, 68.16, 66.16, 64.64, 64.54, 61.11, 53.71, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance: 73.83, 75.47, 76.50, 77.85, 80.97, 83.27, and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2-years on 9/5/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. XLI/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/27/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. XLI/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA since 5/3/12. Absolute price broke below 4-week lows on 9/5/12. Still, price remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA since 8/24/12. Support: 35.75, 35.00, 34.32, 33.84, 33.08, 32.22, 31.08, and 27.67. Resistance: 37.39, 37.45, 37.79, 38.17, 38.43, and 39.98.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/7/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. The XLB/SPY has generally stayed below its 50-day SMA, except for just a few days over the past 3 months. XLB/SPY has been bearish most of the time since 6/8/11, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. XLB absolute price broke below 4-week lows on 9/4/12. Price is systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA since 6/26/12. Support: 35.07, 34.10, 33.58, 32.59, 31.41, 30.72, 27.77, 23.85, and 17.83. Resistance: 37.24, 37.65, 37.97, 40.20, 40.72, 41.28, 43.04, 45.21, 45.21, and 46.54.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/1/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. XLU/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/7/12. The XLU/SPY 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA on 7/6/12, but the 50-200 spread has been narrowing. Absolute price broke below 9-week lows on 8/31/12. Price remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained consistently above its 200-day SMA since 8/18/10. Support: 36.24, 36.00, 35.56, 35.29, 34.14, 33.18, 31.94, 29.45, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance: 36.80, 37.62, 38.54, 41.98, and 44.66.
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Stock Market Indicators
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1438.74, high of 9/10/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1386.09, 50-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.92% , SEE , SEALED AIR
2.92% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.94% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
1.86% , MDP , MEREDITH
2.70% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.49% , GCI , GANNETT
2.46% , ASH , ASHLAND
1.70% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
1.04% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.71% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
2.39% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
2.34% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
2.50% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.66% , FDX , FEDEX
0.28% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
1.38% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.44% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.03% , FLR , FLUOR
0.73% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
0.68% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.74% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.97% , BC , BRUNSWICK
0.75% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
0.29% , KSS , KOHLS
0.67% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
0.76% , NKE , NIKE STK B
0.68% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
0.73% , IBM , IBM
0.57% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.27% , INTU , INTUIT
0.44% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
1.24% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.27% , DLX , DELUXE
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.95% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.98% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-0.70% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-2.45% , CL , COLGATE
-2.48% , BA , BOEING
-1.39% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-2.29% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-3.42% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-2.45% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-1.12% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-0.34% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-2.32% , MMM , 3M
-2.86% , XRX , XEROX
-0.52% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-3.47% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.84% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.38% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.95% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.69% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-0.52% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-2.60% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-1.31% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-1.29% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-2.03% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-1.79% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-1.00% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.78% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-7.46% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-2.23% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-2.08% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-3.35% , SPLS , STAPLES
-1.24% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-2.62% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.61% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.44% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.26% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.24% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.20% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.17% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.14% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.08% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.07% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.02% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% Water Resources, PHO
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.01% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.05% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.05% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.07% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.08% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.11% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.11% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.13% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.15% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.16% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.16% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.17% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.19% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.20% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.23% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.23% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.24% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.28% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.29% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.32% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.33% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.33% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.34% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.34% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.35% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.35% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.39% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.39% Canada Index, EWC
-0.39% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.40% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.40% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.41% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.42% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.43% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.43% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.43% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.44% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.44% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.44% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.45% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.45% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.45% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.45% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.45% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.46% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.47% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.48% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.50% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.51% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.53% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.53% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.53% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.55% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.55% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.55% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.56% Energy Global, IXC
-0.57% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.57% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.59% Russia MV, RSX
-0.59% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.62% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.63% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.64% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.64% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.65% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.65% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.65% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.65% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.68% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.69% Global 100, IOO
-0.70% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.75% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.76% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.76% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.76% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.78% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.79% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.81% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.81% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.82% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.83% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.84% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.85% Dividend International, PID
-0.87% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.88% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.92% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.92% India PS, PIN
-0.93% Germany Index, EWG
-0.93% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.94% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.94% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.97% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.00% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.02% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.03% Austria Index, EWO
-1.06% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.07% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.14% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.16% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.18% Australia Index, EWA
-1.19% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.20% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.21% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.22% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.28% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.28% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.28% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.29% France Index, EWQ
-1.38% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.43% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.43% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.45% Spain Index, EWP
-1.47% Networking, IGN
-1.49% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.56% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.65% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.74% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.78% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.80% Italy Index, EWI
