The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,385.30) fell 0.67 points or 0.05% on Monday. The day formed a Spinning Top Candlestick, suggesting hesitation and indecision.

NYSE trading volume fell 27%, also suggesting hesitation.

For the short term, stocks obviously appear to be hypersensitive to the latest news headlines. The fundamental outlooks for the global economy as well as sales and earnings of companies appear mostly bleak, but that means many traders are now speculating on quantitative easing they expect to be announced after the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday, 8/1/12. To the extent that quantitative easing might be discounted in advance, however, the market reaction could be disappointing.

Looking beyond the unpredictable next few days, and weighing a wide variety of trends and indicators, underlying market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market projecting out weeks and months ahead. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative investors.

For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Averages gave an early warning by diverging after 2/3/12, as the Transports turned corrective and failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials. Again on 5/1/12, the Industrials rose to a higher closing price high while the Transports failed to rise to a higher closing price high, thereby indicating a non-confirmation and bearish divergence. Currently, as of 7/30/12, the Industrials are above June-July highs but the Transports continue to lag well below June-July highs.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 7/26/12. The QQQ/SPY ratio remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 8/5/11. The 50-200 spread has been narrowing, however, and that may prove to be a caution sign.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1391.74, high of 7/30/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1336.21, 50-day SMA
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1318.81, 200-day SMA
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 7/30/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA fell below its 200-day SMA on 6/1/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/30/12, turning systematically bullish again. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/30/12, thereby turning systematically neutral from bearish SLV is above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.85% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
0.76% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
12.56% , SVU , SUPERVALU
1.16% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
0.25% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
0.36% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
0.58% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
2.25% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.89% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
2.81% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.74% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
0.42% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.36% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.17% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.22% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
1.54% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.79% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
0.35% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.36% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
1.40% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
0.03% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.72% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.65% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.69% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
0.37% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.45% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
1.46% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
1.69% , BBY , BEST BUY
0.63% , A , AGILENT TECH
0.41% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.28% , JWN , NORDSTROM
0.05% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.22% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.08% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.32% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-5.18% , L , LOEWS
-5.86% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-0.56% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-0.63% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-0.42% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-3.97% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-0.66% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-0.39% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-1.26% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-1.80% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-2.10% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-3.96% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.49% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-3.52% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-2.55% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-1.63% , IGV , Software, IGV
-2.77% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-0.34% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.68% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.32% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-3.79% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-4.45% , AVP , AVON
-0.19% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.26% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-2.31% , CMI , CUMMINS
-0.40% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.79% , SNA , SNAP ON
-0.43% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.99% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-0.96% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.50% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.30% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.91% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.91% India PS, PIN
0.87% Spain Index, EWP
0.84% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.76% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.75% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.58% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.57% Italy Index, EWI
0.51% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.48% Sweden Index, EWD
0.47% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.41% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.38% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.37% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.37% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.36% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.35% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.32% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.31% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.30% Singapore Index, EWS
0.30% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.28% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.28% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.28% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.26% Canada Index, EWC
0.26% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.25% Energy DJ, IYE
0.24% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.23% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.23% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.17% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.14% Austria Index, EWO
0.13% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.13% Energy Global, IXC
0.13% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.09% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.09% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.09% Australia Index, EWA
0.09% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.07% Dividend International, PID
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.03% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.03% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.03% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.02% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.01% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.00% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.00% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.00% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.03% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.03% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.03% Global 100, IOO
-0.04% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.05% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.06% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.06% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.06% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.07% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.07% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.08% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.09% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.09% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.10% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.10% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.10% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.10% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.11% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.12% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.13% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.14% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.14% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.15% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.15% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.17% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.18% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.18% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.19% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.20% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.20% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.21% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.21% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.22% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.23% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.24% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.24% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.25% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.25% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.27% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.28% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.31% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.33% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.34% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.34% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.38% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.42% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.42% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.43% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.43% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.44% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.44% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.47% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.48% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.49% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.50% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.50% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.51% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.52% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.55% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.57% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.59% Water Resources, PHO
-0.59% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.60% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.63% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.64% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.64% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.65% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.66% France Index, EWQ
-0.68% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.69% Germany Index, EWG
-0.73% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.77% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.77% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.81% Networking, IGN
-0.90% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.99% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.07% Russia MV, RSX
-1.08% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.29% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.71% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.77% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ