Highlights based on trading on Monday, June 11, 2012:
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 8 months and remains systematically bearish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 3 weeks. Looks like a significant downside correction, at least.
VIX Fear Index fell steeply to 19.63 intraday, down from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This suggests a rapid shift from concern toward bullish complacency.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,308.93) fell 16.73 points or 1.26% on Monday. Stocks gapped strongly higher on the open in reaction to media reports that Europe’s leaders bailed out Spain’s failing banking system. Stocks soon reversed to the downside, however, in reaction to media reports that Europe’s leaders bailed out Spain’s failing banking system. The market seemed to like bailouts–until it didn’t. This illustrates what technical analysts always say: you can’t trade on the news.
NYSE volume rose 1%, suggesting greater selling pressure on stocks. Volume patterns generally have been bearish for months, with a tendency toward lower volume on rallies and higher volume on declines, indicating the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure. NYSE Cumulative Up-Down Volume still shows a bearish divergence: it fell further below its 200-day SMA, while the S&P 500 price index remains above its 200-day SMA.
Last week’s price bounce may not be in harmony with the trend in the next larger time frame, which appears more bearish than bullish since the SPX peak at 1,422.38 on 4/2/12. Look for resistance near recent highs around the 1335 zone on the SPX. The path of least resistance appears to be down.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1355.03, 50-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1,289.07, 200-day SMA
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price has had a normal, minor correction and remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 126.39, 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance. 130.38.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price has had a normal, minor correction and remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.59, 107.43, 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 109.37.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, JNK/LQD remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA–although that 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price has pulled back but remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.64, 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.02, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/4/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 6/1/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 6/11/12. USO turned systematically bearish on 6/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. USO remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.80, 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/1/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/4/12, reconfirming its downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/8/12. JJC turned bearish on 5/31/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.53% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
2.31% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.73% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
0.87% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
3.07% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
4.00% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.16% , NVDA , NVIDIA
0.49% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
1.65% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.02% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.50% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.49% , STT , STATE STREET
0.18% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
0.42% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
0.27% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.17% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.34% , TE , TECO ENERGY
0.08% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.19% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.39% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
2.54% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.73% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
0.19% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
0.40% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
0.15% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
0.72% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
0.19% , WAG , WALGREEN
0.24% , BA , BOEING
0.06% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.19% , SYK , STRYKER
0.28% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
0.06% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.56% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-1.59% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-3.31% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-0.89% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.34% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-8.20% , KBH , KB HOME
-5.21% , HAR , Harman International
-1.21% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-4.49% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.40% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.34% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-3.76% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-1.89% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-4.69% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-4.21% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.96% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-1.75% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-1.12% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.66% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.21% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-4.17% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-3.26% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.23% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.85% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.20% , LM , LEGG MASON
-1.87% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-2.11% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-5.60% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-1.10% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-1.78% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-1.83% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.81% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-4.23% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.17% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.50% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.46% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.41% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.27% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.09% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.04% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.02% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.06% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.08% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.19% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.28% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.28% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.34% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.34% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.36% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.40% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.47% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.48% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.51% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.51% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.52% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.65% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.73% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.76% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.77% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.83% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.83% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.85% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.87% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.87% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.89% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.92% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.97% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.97% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.99% Dividend International, PID
-0.99% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.01% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.03% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.04% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.04% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.07% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.10% Energy Global, IXC
-1.12% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.12% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.12% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.12% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.16% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.16% Global 100, IOO
-1.19% Germany Index, EWG
-1.21% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.22% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.23% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.24% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.26% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.27% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.27% France Index, EWQ
-1.27% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.30% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.31% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.31% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.33% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.33% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.33% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.36% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.36% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.37% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.38% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.40% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.40% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.40% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.41% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.41% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.42% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.44% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.46% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.48% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.52% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.53% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.56% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.56% Austria Index, EWO
-1.59% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.61% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.61% Canada Index, EWC
-1.65% Australia Index, EWA
-1.68% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.69% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.69% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.70% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.73% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.76% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.78% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.80% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.81% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.82% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.83% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.83% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.85% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.85% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.88% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.89% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.95% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.95% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.96% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.99% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.99% Russia MV, RSX
-2.03% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.04% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.09% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.10% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.10% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.12% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.13% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.17% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.21% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.22% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.23% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.23% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.24% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.25% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.27% Water Resources, PHO
-2.28% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.30% Spain Index, EWP
-2.34% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.36% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.57% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.59% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.82% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.26% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-3.26% India PS, PIN
-3.31% Networking, IGN
-3.34% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.37% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.46% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-4.06% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.21% Italy Index, EWI
