iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 8 months on 8/4/14 and the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bullish.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to its highest level in 8 months on 8/4/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks and fell below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 8/4/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 8/4/14, thereby confirming a downside correction.
Utilities stock sector ETF (XLU) Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months on 8/4/14 and has been trending down since 4/28/14.
Industrial stock sector ETF (XLI) Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 8/4/14, reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 8/4/14 and is now systematically neutral.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,938.99, up 0.72%) absolute price opened modestly higher, dipped minus briefly, bottomed at 10:58 am ET, then rose most of the rest of the day. SPX closed above the open, above midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above both its closing price and highest intraday high of the previous trading day.
NYSE total volume fell 20% to a level 7% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at zero, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the SPX broke down to their lowest levels in more than 3 months on 8/1/14 and remain relatively weak. Both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 fell to its lowest levels in more than 3 months on 8/1/14. Stochastic turned down from a peak of 91 on 7/7/14, which was below its June peak above 98 set on 6/4/14, for another example of bearish divergence.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been off the charts and into the danger zone for months, bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/16/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Although not part of the Dow Theory, all 3 Dow-Jones Averages (Industrial, Transportation, and Utility) crossed below their 50-day SMAs on 7/31/14, thereby objectively demonstrating short-term price weakness, at least.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 7/30/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose to a 13-year closing price high on 7/23/14. The price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 1/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 8 months on 8/4/14 and the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to its highest level in 8 months on 8/4/14. The EEM /SPY 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/29/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 7/29/14 but remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/30/14. UUP is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is rising up toward the 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead if price rises further. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 7/11/14. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in nearly 3 months on 8/1/14, suggesting a downside correction. Price remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above it above the 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price appears to be base building since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD appears to be systematically neutral, with the GLD price crisscrossing the 50-day and 200-day SMAs recently. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 7/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks and fell below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 8/4/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 8/4/14, thereby confirming a downside correction. The 50-200 SMA remains negative, with 50Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.38% , GCI , GANNETT
2.05% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
2.22% , CTAS , CINTAS
1.79% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
2.54% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
0.45% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.49% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
2.57% , DRI , DARDEN REST
0.97% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.01% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.02% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
1.12% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
4.84% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
0.64% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.76% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.17% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.79% , PEP , PEPSICO
1.41% , ALL , ALLSTATE
0.70% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
2.47% , AMGN , AMGEN
1.48% , TER , TERADYNE
1.20% , SNA , SNAP ON
0.56% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
0.76% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.88% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
3.51% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
0.45% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
3.49% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
0.63% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.62% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
0.59% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
1.45% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
2.18% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.61% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-2.89% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-1.74% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-0.77% , ETR , ENTERGY
-2.35% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.70% , AEE , AMEREN
-1.14% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-1.97% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.64% , ED , CON ED
-0.80% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-0.54% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.48% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.83% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-0.81% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-0.94% , PCG , PG&E
-0.51% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.39% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.77% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-0.54% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-1.62% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.16% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-0.46% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-0.30% , PPL , PPL
-0.45% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
-0.61% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-1.01% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-0.25% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-0.90% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.44% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-0.16% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-0.10% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.20% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-0.23% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.83% , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.58% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.91% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.69% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.68% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.65% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.60% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.51% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.45% , Energy Global, IXC
1.40% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.26% , India PS, PIN
1.22% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.19% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.19% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.17% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.17% , Italy Index, EWI
1.14% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.13% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.13% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.10% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.10% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.08% , Russia MV, RSX
1.06% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.98% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.97% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.95% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.93% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.89% , Networking, IGN
0.89% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.86% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.86% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.84% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.82% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.81% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.80% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.80% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.78% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.78% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.78% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.77% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.76% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.76% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.76% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.75% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.74% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.74% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.74% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.74% , France Index, EWQ
0.73% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.72% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.72% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.72% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.71% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.71% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.71% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.70% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.70% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.70% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.70% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.69% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.69% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.69% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.69% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.69% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.68% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.68% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.68% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.68% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.67% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.67% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.66% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.64% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.63% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.62% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.61% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.61% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.60% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.60% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.60% , Canada Index, EWC
0.59% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.58% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.57% , Global 100, IOO
0.55% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.55% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.55% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.54% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.52% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.52% , Spain Index, EWP
0.52% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.50% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.48% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.48% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.47% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.46% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.46% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.45% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.45% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.43% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.43% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.42% , Australia Index, EWA
0.38% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.37% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.36% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.35% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.34% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.32% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.32% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.31% , Germany Index, EWG
0.30% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.30% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.28% , Water Resources, PHO
0.28% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.26% , Dividend International, PID
0.24% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.20% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.15% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.15% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.14% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.06% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.04% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.03% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.02% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.03% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.15% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.23% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.26% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.26% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.31% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.31% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.33% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.36% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.48% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.54% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.58% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.61% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.76% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1991.39, high of 7/24/2014
1954.54, 50-day SMA
1952.86, low of 7/10/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1859.23, 200-day SMA
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
