Absolute price for the following whipsawed back up above 50-day SMAs on 4/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral):
S&P 500 Composite Index, SPX
Industrial SPDR, XLI
Materials SPDR, XLB
Technology SPDR, XLK
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1.862.31, up 1.05%) absolute price opened higher but turned choppy after the first minute. By 11:03 am ET, SPX had surrender most of its early gain. Prices rose again after 2:17 pm ET into a strong close, the highest close in a week. SPX closed above the open and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume fell 16% to a level 5% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 174 from 72 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to price. Both have remained below their peaks of 2013 consistently on every upside price bounce in 2014. Both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Although the S&P 500 closed at a new high on 4/2/14, neither the Nasdaq Composite Index nor the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new high, suggesting non-confirmation.
Beyond the very short term, the outlook for the stock market appears to be deteriorating technically. Non-confirmations, momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, with the Transportation Average setting higher highs and the Industrial Average setting lower closing price highs. Such divergence suggests that significant sectors are not in gear and pulling together in the same direction. If both Averages close below their lows of 2/3/14 without the Industrial Average closing above its high of 12/31/13 to confirm the higher closing price high of the Transportation Average set on high on 4/2/14, that could be a significant sell signal.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price of QQQ crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 12/10/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. EFA/SPY fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 4/3/14 by crossing above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA is moving down toward but remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The declining 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, but the spread is narrowing. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 4/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price broke out to its highest level in nearly 9 months on 4/15/14 and remains systematically bullish. Support 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price has been systematically bullish since 4/7/14, when the price crossed back up above its rising 50-day SMA. Support 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 102.83, 103.40, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell to its lowest level in 9 weeks on 4/11/14 and remains systematically bearish. Absolute price of JNK has been consolidating in a trading range between 41.95 and 38.21 since 5/8/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been fluctuating around its SMAs since setting a low on 6/24/13 and currently appears to be in a sideways, neutral trading range. Absolute price has been fluctuating around its SMAs since setting a low on 9/5/13 and currently appears to be in a sideways, neutral trading range between 113.54 and 108.63.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell to its lowest level in 2 years on 4/10/14. UUP turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. From a longer-term perspective, UUP price has whipsawed around its 50-day SMA for many months but still has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. For nearly 3 years, since 5/4/11, UUP has been fluctuating between 23.14 and 20.84. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA on 4/10/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.81, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 4/10/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support: 123.11, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) could be trying to form a base. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since GDX absolute price made a low at 20.24 on 12/24/13. Previously, GDX/GLD was systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that downtrend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price remains systematically bearish. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.24% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
1.23% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
4.34% , IR , INGER RAND
2.59% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
3.13% , TXT , TEXTRON
1.11% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.05% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.48% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
3.14% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
2.71% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
1.06% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
2.04% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
1.78% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
2.09% , ITT , ITT INDS
4.42% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
1.25% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.96% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
1.05% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
6.26% , YHOO , YAHOO
2.52% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
0.96% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
3.62% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
0.96% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.64% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.47% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
1.86% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.50% , DOV , DOVER
1.84% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
1.74% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
1.18% , K , KELLOGG
1.42% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.80% , IVE , Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.23% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.37% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-1.87% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-2.46% , AET , AETNA
-1.66% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-1.69% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-1.70% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-1.53% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-1.94% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
-1.40% , NE , NOBLE
-1.32% , USB , US BANCORP
-1.31% , TXN.O , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
-0.82% , EMC , EMC
-0.77% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.59% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-1.43% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-0.98% , MBI , MBIA
-0.56% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-0.16% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.29% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.77% , CSX , CSX
-0.31% , IBM , IBM
-2.19% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.45% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.81% , XLNX , XILINX
-0.50% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-0.45% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-0.51% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-0.38% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.23% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.05% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.90% , Italy Index, EWI
2.89% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.61% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.26% , Russia MV, RSX
1.92% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.85% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.77% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.70% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.68% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.61% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.55% , Germany Index, EWG
1.53% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.49% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.49% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.49% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.48% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.48% , Spain Index, EWP
1.47% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.46% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.43% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.42% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.40% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.39% , Water Resources, PHO
1.36% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.35% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.33% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.29% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.27% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.26% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.25% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.25% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.25% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.25% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.24% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.24% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.24% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.24% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.22% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.22% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.20% , France Index, EWQ
1.20% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.19% , Australia Index, EWA
1.17% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.16% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.16% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.16% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.15% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.14% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.12% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.12% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.12% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.11% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.10% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.09% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.09% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.08% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.06% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.06% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.05% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.05% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.05% , Global 100, IOO
1.05% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.05% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.03% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.03% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.02% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.02% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.02% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.01% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.00% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.98% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.97% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.97% , Austria Index, EWO
0.97% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.97% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.97% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.96% , Energy Global, IXC
0.96% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.95% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.91% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.91% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.91% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.89% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.89% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.88% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.87% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.87% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.87% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.84% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.84% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.84% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.82% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.80% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.79% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.77% , Dividend International, PID
0.76% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.75% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.73% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.73% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.73% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.72% , Networking, IGN
0.72% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.69% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.64% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.64% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.60% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.57% , Canada Index, EWC
0.51% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.49% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.48% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.39% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.37% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.35% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.34% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.29% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.29% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.27% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.24% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.19% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.19% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.13% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.12% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.11% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.06% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.06% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.05% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.04% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.04% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.03% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.16% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.17% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.21% , India PS, PIN
-0.29% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.45% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.00% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1872.53, high of 4/10/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1848.89, 50-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1764.94, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
