Now that the decision has been made, and Draghi has committed to unlimited buying of European bonds, the question has surfaced – is it time to buy euros?
The answer is a blatant no.
CAN THE PLAN WORK?
Although sentiment has helped the single currency run higher by almost 4% since the middle of July, there is still plenty of doubt that the measure will work. The notion will lead the euro lower, against a backdrop of technical resistance.
IT’S COMPLICATED
Initially, the plan is a good one. Buying an unlimited quantity of European bonds and sterilizing them in order to allow for periphery nations to become fiscally sound. However, the measure is dependent on troubled European nations participating.
From the very beginning ECB President Mario Draghi has noted that nations like Greece, Spain and Italy will need to acknowledge the need for assistance. Something that Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy refuses to do. By doing so, it may increase speculation of a default and subject the country to strict requirements handed down by the central bank. Without member nation participation, the program may have little effect in the way of protecting the region.
THE CHART
Technically speaking, signals are abound of a near term decline in the major currency. Notably, the notion is being protected by a medium term 1.4898-1.4548 descending trendline. The barrier is reinforcing resistance supplied by the 1.2975 February 16th low. Furthermore, a bearish divergence has emerged in moving average convergence divergence (MACD), fully indicative that at least a short term correction is in the works.
The only caveat it seems, is if the 1.2975 barrier is taken out. The breakout could force a squeeze higher and reverse the reigning sentiment.
