U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) 50-day SMA fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/2/12, thereby turning systematically bearish.

Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/2/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,445.75) rose 1.26 points or 0.09% on Tuesday.

SPX declined 8 of the past 12 trading days, but it is not oversold. RSI(14) based on SPX, now in the neutral zone at 56.05, still appears be working off its recent extreme overbought condition. RSI(14) closed at 74.74 on 9/14/12, which was nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.

On-Balance Volume for the SPX increased modestly after falling to its lowest level in 7 weeks on 9/28/12. OBV remains far below its highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating relative weakness and bearish divergence.

NYSE volume fell 8% to a level 13% below its 200-day SMA on Tuesday. Average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, and fell further in September, 2012, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years on Tuesday 9/11/12, and both are still trending downward.

The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Fed and ECB plans to buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope) do not guarantee that stock prices will continue to rise, especially now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.

*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose above its closing price highs of the previous 4-years on 9/20/12, but on 9/28/12 the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed down below its lows of the previous 16-weeks, the lowest since 6/5/28/12, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again, but only by a small margin. QQQ/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 8/5/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. BKF/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. EEM/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/7/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. EFA/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 33-months on 9/24/12. OEF/SPY turned systematically bullish again on 9/17/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. OEF/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. IWM/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/24/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. MDY/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been below its 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.63, 50-day SMA
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1361.35, 200-day SMA
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) 50-day SMA fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/2/12, thereby turning systematically bearish. UUP fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP’s Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.93, 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 9/27/12, thereby turning systematically bullish again. CRB remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains above its 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price suddenly and sharply fell below its 50-day SMA. USO fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowed since 8/3/12. Support 32.98, 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically bullish on 9/20/12, when its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA. GLD price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 10/1/12, rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12, and rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12. Support: 168.34, 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 10/1/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11, but the 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, and a bullish crossover appears probable in a day or two. Support 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 8/22/12, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD ratio remains strong.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has begun to narrow over the past few weeks, however. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.30% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
3.14% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
4.28% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
0.84% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
2.57% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.98% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.66% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.16% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
2.14% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.83% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.35% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.96% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
1.88% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
2.24% , AET , AETNA
0.82% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
2.41% , AN , AUTONATION
1.68% , TYC , TYCO INTL
0.55% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
3.02% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.98% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.93% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
1.68% , KBH , KB HOME
2.64% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
1.30% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
1.35% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
0.99% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
2.50% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.35% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
1.36% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.14% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
1.08% , AEE , AMEREN
1.12% , CI , CIGNA
0.39% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.76% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-13.30% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-5.41% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-4.15% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-6.07% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-0.37% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-1.50% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
-1.29% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-2.70% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-1.81% , DOV , DOVER
-1.41% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.26% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-1.70% , KSS , KOHLS
-0.33% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.71% , DD , DU PONT
-0.56% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.79% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.42% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-3.52% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-1.32% , NE , NOBLE
-1.69% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-1.49% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-2.22% , NCR , NCR
-0.44% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.32% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-1.39% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-1.49% , RTN , RAYTHEON
-0.24% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.72% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-1.30% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-0.58% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-0.45% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.95% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.16% Spain Index, EWP
1.67% Belgium Index, EWK
1.06% Italy Index, EWI
1.03% Austria Index, EWO
1.02% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.01% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.89% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.84% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.84% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.83% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.82% South Africa Index, EZA
0.81% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.79% Germany Index, EWG
0.78% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.76% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.73% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.71% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.68% European VIPERs, VGK
0.68% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.62% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.56% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.53% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.52% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.52% Dividend International, PID
0.52% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.48% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.48% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.45% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.43% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.43% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.42% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.41% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.41% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.39% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.39% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.38% Energy Global, IXC
0.38% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.37% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.35% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.35% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.33% Global 100, IOO
0.33% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.33% France Index, EWQ
0.31% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.29% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.29% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.28% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.27% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.27% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.27% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.26% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.26% Networking, IGN
0.26% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.25% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.25% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.25% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.24% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.24% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.23% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.22% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.21% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.21% Sweden Index, EWD
0.21% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.21% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.20% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.20% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.19% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.19% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.19% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.19% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.18% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.18% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.17% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.16% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.15% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.14% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.14% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.14% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.14% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.13% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.13% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.12% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.12% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.10% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.10% Canada Index, EWC
0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.10% Russia MV, RSX
0.09% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.08% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.08% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.08% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Singapore Index, EWS
0.06% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.06% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.06% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.04% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.03% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.02% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.02% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.01% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Water Resources, PHO
0.00% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.00% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% India PS, PIN
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.05% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.05% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.06% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.07% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.09% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.09% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.11% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.11% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.12% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.12% Australia Index, EWA
-0.14% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.14% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.16% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.18% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.19% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.22% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.24% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.25% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.26% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.44% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.45% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.50% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.52% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.54% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.62% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.67% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.74% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.79% South Korea Index, EWY