The Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above previous highs, while the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (13,596.02) tested but failed to close above its October 5, 2012, closing high at 13,610.15, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
Utilities stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months, again confirming its systematically bearish major trend.
VIX Fear Index collapsed to 13.16 from 23.23 on 12/28/12. This indicates a shift to bullish complacency from worried concern.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bullish on 1/17/13 when it whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA. TIP/IEF rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12, and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 10/10/12.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,480.94 ) rose 8.31 points or 0.56% on Thursday to its highest level in 5 years. NYSE trading volume rose 19% to a level that was 13% above its 200-day SMA.
The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning popular optimism. Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/13
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.61, 50-day SMA
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1394.12, 200-day SMA
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 1/10/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.96, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral on 12/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.36, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/20/12. SLV/GLD turned systematically neutral on 12/14/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price remains systematically neutral. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle Consolidation chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.93% , CBS , CBS CORP.
6.99% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
4.91% , BIG , BIG LOTS
4.90% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
4.57% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
2.12% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
5.33% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
4.17% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
2.28% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
3.49% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
4.39% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
3.44% , LOW , LOWES
2.33% , BC , BRUNSWICK
0.92% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
2.58% , INTC , INTEL
2.59% , IP , INTL PAPER
2.99% , IR , INGER RAND
2.80% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
0.83% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
3.73% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
1.84% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
0.73% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
4.76% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
1.88% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.85% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.93% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
3.94% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
2.71% , PIN , India PS, PIN
2.34% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
2.62% , TYC , TYCO INTL
1.69% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
1.76% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
1.78% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.68% , PWER , POWER ONE
-5.03% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-4.24% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-2.92% , C , CITIGROUP
-2.77% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-1.16% , VFC , VF
-1.45% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.76% , GLW , CORNING
-0.41% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.18% , USB , US BANCORP
-0.46% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-1.28% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.83% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-1.00% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.19% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-0.21% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.69% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.29% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.69% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.01% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.16% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.21% , EMC , EMC
-0.26% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-0.06% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.28% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.54% , GOOG , Google
-0.66% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-0.18% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-0.33% , AFL , AFLAC
-0.38% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-0.17% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-0.22% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.71% India PS, PIN
1.92% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.89% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.89% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.85% Austria Index, EWO
1.85% Italy Index, EWI
1.85% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.79% Belgium Index, EWK
1.69% France Index, EWQ
1.63% Water Resources, PHO
1.42% Spain Index, EWP
1.41% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.41% Germany Index, EWG
1.37% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.36% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.29% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.19% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.14% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.14% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.13% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.07% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.07% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.07% European VIPERs, VGK
1.06% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.02% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.00% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.98% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.96% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.94% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.93% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.93% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.92% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.92% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.92% Dividend International, PID
0.92% South Korea Index, EWY
0.91% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.90% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.90% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.89% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.89% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.89% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.88% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.87% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.86% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.86% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.84% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.84% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.83% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.82% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.82% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.81% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.78% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.77% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.77% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.77% Russia MV, RSX
0.75% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.73% Energy DJ, IYE
0.72% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.72% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.72% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.70% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.69% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.69% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.69% Sweden Index, EWD
0.69% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.69% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.69% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.68% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.68% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.67% Global 100, IOO
0.67% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.66% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.65% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.64% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.64% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.63% Energy Global, IXC
0.63% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.63% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.62% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.62% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.62% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.61% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.61% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.59% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.58% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.57% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.56% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.56% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.54% Networking, IGN
0.54% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.54% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.51% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.51% Australia Index, EWA
0.50% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.50% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.48% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.48% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.46% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.45% South Africa Index, EZA
0.44% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.43% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.43% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.41% Canada Index, EWC
0.41% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.41% Japan Index, EWJ
0.40% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.40% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.39% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.38% Mexico Index, EWW
0.38% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.36% China 25 iS, FXI
0.36% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.33% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.31% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.27% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.25% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.24% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.23% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.22% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.22% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.20% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.20% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Singapore Index, EWS
0.02% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.15% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.16% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.17% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.17% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.18% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.21% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.22% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.22% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.31% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.41% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.46% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.64% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.00% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
