Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/13/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC fell to its lowest level in 8 months on 8/2/12, thereby confirming its major bearish trend. JJC price remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since 12/31/10. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this relative weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,404.11) fell 1.76 points or 0.13% on Monday. SPX is demonstrating a clear loss of momentum over the past 4 trading days. Last week, short-term momentum oscillators failed to rise above June-July highs to confirm the S&P 500. Cracks are becoming more visible.
NYSE volume fell 9% to the lowest level since 7/3/12 and one of the lowest levels of the year, possibly reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks, as well as summer vacations. On-Balance Volume for the SPX remains in a downtrend with bearish divergence. NYSE Cumulative Volume of Advancing Stocks minus Volume of Declining Stocks remains weak relative to price. Volume has not been confirming the price up move.
Technical market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 7/23/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Short term, BKF/SPY turned systematically neutral 8/6/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA (but only very SLIGHTLY). I expect the Ratio to turn bearish again in days ahead.BKF/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
VIX Fear Index fell to 13.67 intraday on 8/13/12, its lowest level since 3/16/12. VIX fell from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This large drop suggests a shift from worried concern to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1407.14, high of 8/7/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1352.24, 50-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1327.19, 200-day SMA
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) challenged Thursday’s high on Friday on USDA crop estimate news but reversed to close below Thursday’s low in a relatively wide-range session on relatively high volume. That looks like bearish action for the short term. Following 8 weeks of rising prices on drought news, DBA looks extended, so a period of correction and consolidation would come as no surprise. DBA is systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/13/12. High food prices could bring trouble for the general economy because more consumer spending for food means less consumer spending available for other goods and services.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.37, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again for the short term. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish again when it fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/10/12. SLV/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.85% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
5.72% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
3.12% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
0.25% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
4.51% , SYY , SYSCO
4.67% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
12.39% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.81% , GOOG , Google
3.02% , EBAY , EBAY
0.36% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
2.14% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.56% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
3.19% , IP , INTL PAPER
1.58% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
1.82% , CVG , CONVERGYS
0.84% , DHR , DANAHER
1.21% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
1.56% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
1.34% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
3.02% , NBR , NABORS
0.89% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.47% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.81% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
0.27% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.70% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
0.55% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
0.41% , TXT , TEXTRON
1.19% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
0.07% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
0.98% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
0.56% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
2.64% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.41% , BBY , BEST BUY
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.48% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-3.66% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.44% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.16% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-0.37% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-0.26% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.86% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.90% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-1.54% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-0.34% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-0.36% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.48% , IGV , Software, IGV
-0.76% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.35% , X , US STEEL CORP
-0.94% , SUN , SUNOCO
-1.84% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-0.52% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.51% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.94% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-0.62% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-2.36% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.08% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.94% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.13% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.24% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.11% , CR , CRANE
-2.44% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-1.12% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.46% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-1.05% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-1.09% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-0.61% , ETR , ENTERGY
-1.76% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.63% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.47% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.30% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.27% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.24% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.22% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.14% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.13% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.12% Spain Index, EWP
0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.10% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.09% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.08% Singapore Index, EWS
0.07% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.06% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.06% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.05% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.05% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.04% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.04% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.03% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.03% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.03% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.03% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.04% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.04% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.06% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.07% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.07% Austria Index, EWO
-0.08% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.08% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.08% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.08% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.08% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.10% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.11% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.12% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.12% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.13% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.13% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.13% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.13% Dividend International, PID
-0.13% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.14% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.14% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.15% France Index, EWQ
-0.15% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.15% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.16% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.16% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.16% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.17% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.18% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.20% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.21% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.21% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.21% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.21% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.22% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.22% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.22% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.22% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.23% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.23% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.23% Global 100, IOO
-0.23% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.23% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.24% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.24% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.24% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.25% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.25% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.26% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.26% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.26% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.27% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.27% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.28% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.31% Germany Index, EWG
-0.33% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.33% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.34% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.36% Italy Index, EWI
-0.36% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.37% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.41% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.41% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.42% Water Resources, PHO
-0.46% Energy Global, IXC
-0.47% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.48% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.51% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.55% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.55% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.55% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.57% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.57% Russia MV, RSX
-0.58% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.60% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.60% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.62% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.67% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.71% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.72% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.74% Canada Index, EWC
-0.76% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.76% India PS, PIN
-0.76% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.77% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.77% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.78% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.79% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.82% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.86% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.87% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.88% Networking, IGN
-0.88% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.90% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.94% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.01% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.05% Australia Index, EWA
-1.13% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.22% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.25% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.37% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.38% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.44% Sweden Index, EWD
