Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 17 months on 12/11/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 14 weeks on 12/11/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 12/11/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,782.22, down 1.13%) absolute price opened slightly higher on Wednesday but immediately began to decline and fell nearly all day long with only brief interruptions. The S&P 500 closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below its closing price lows of the previous 13 trading days.
NYSE total volume rose 13% to a level 2% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE fell below 8-weeks’ lows on Wednesday, after crossing below its 50-day SMA on Tuesday 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below 3-weeks’ lows and crossed below its 50-day SMA on Wednesday 12/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Both indicators have remained below their highs of September-October, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs in late November.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 fell below their lows of the previous 8 weeks on Wednesday 12/11/13. These oscillators have been trending lower after stalling out below their October highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs in November. Previously, both remained stubbornly and bearishly divergent below first half 2013 highs as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs in July, August, September, and October.
Momentum divergences, breadth divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory last reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/27/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 14 months on 12/10/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 4 months on 12/9/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/2/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 14 weeks on 12/11/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 12/11/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/5/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 11/27/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The price 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 12/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 32.94, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/6/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.28, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.64% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
3.39% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.82% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
3.08% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
1.80% , GCI , GANNETT
0.83% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.36% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.02% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.87% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
1.16% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.16% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.35% , BBT , BB&T
0.63% , MKC , MCCORMICK
0.35% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
1.91% , WAG , WALGREEN
0.94% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
0.12% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.30% , EL , Estee Lauder
0.22% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.44% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
0.33% , PEP , PEPSICO
0.24% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
0.77% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
0.06% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
0.50% , HD , HOME DEPOT
0.02% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
0.03% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-10.99% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-4.43% , AVP , AVON
-4.16% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.95% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-4.80% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-4.88% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-2.74% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-4.52% , MBI , MBIA
-4.44% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-1.64% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.61% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-3.26% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.49% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-3.00% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-1.03% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-0.98% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-3.09% , MDP , MEREDITH
-1.36% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.00% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-2.04% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.24% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.60% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.50% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-1.47% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-2.51% , MHFI.K , McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., MHFI.K
-1.72% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-2.13% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.74% , NE , NOBLE
-0.99% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.45% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-3.09% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-3.71% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.53% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.16% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.16% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.00% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.10% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.12% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.16% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.16% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.28% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.28% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.29% , France Index, EWQ
-0.30% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.34% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.35% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.39% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.45% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.48% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.56% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.56% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.57% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.58% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.67% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.68% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.68% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.72% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.74% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.76% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.77% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.78% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.79% , Networking, IGN
-0.79% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.82% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.85% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.87% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.87% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.88% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.89% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.89% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.90% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.91% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.92% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.92% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.92% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.93% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.93% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.94% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.95% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.95% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.97% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.99% , Global 100, IOO
-0.99% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.99% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.99% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.99% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.06% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.06% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.06% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.11% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.12% , Dividend International, PID
-1.12% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.15% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.16% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-1.17% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.18% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.19% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.21% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.21% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.22% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.23% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.24% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.24% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.24% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-1.24% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.25% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-1.25% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.29% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.29% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.30% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.33% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.34% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.34% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.35% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.36% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.36% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.36% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.38% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.38% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-1.41% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.42% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.44% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.47% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.48% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.49% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.50% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.51% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.51% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.53% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.53% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.54% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.54% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.55% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.57% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.60% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.61% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.61% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.61% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.62% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.64% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.64% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.66% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.66% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.70% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.70% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.72% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.75% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.79% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.81% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.86% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.86% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.00% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.03% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.04% , South Korea Index, EWY
-2.13% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.16% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-2.21% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-2.30% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.31% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.35% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.39% , India PS, PIN
-2.41% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.43% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.45% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.45% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.49% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.61% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.66% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.09% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-3.26% , China 25 iS, FXI
-3.66% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.71% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1777.23, low of 11/20/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1758.17, 50-day SMA
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1661.69, 200-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
