Gold Gaining Strength, Financial Losing Strength

Gold Gaining Strength, Financial Losing Strength

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price jumped above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/10/14, thereby confirming its bullish trend.

Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 18 months on 7/10/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) appears to be stabilizing after hitting a low on 2/25/14 and is now systematically neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 7/10/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months on 7/10/14, thereby confirming a significant downtrend.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,964.68, down 0.41%) absolute price opened lower on a downside gap but quickly reversed on Thursday. SPX clawed back most of its opening loss over the next few hours, only to sag moderately lower after 1:40 pm ET. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, but below the low and the closing prices of the previous trading day.

NYSE total volume rose 11% to a level 4% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 104, has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.

Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 turned down from a peak of 91 on 7/7/14, which was below its June peak above 98 set on 6/4/14, for another example of bearish divergence.

For the stock market, end/beginning of month and pre-holiday (4th of July) bullish seasonal tendencies have now expired, stock prices are overbought and overvalued, sentiment indicators are off the charts and into the danger zone, bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always). These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/3/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose further above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14. QQQ/SPY remains systematically neutral because the 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA. Nevertheless, the 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 6/5/14 such that a bullish crossover appears to be likely in days ahead. Absolute price of QQQ has been making 13-year highs and remains systematically bullish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) appears to be stabilizing after hitting a low on 2/25/14 and is now systematically neutral. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 7/10/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 7/8/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically bullish since 6/5/14 but has begun to show weakness since peaking on 7/1/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 7/10/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 6/30/14–this after falling below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, and thereby reconfirming its long-term bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.60, 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months on 7/10/14, thereby confirming a significant downtrend. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price USO crossed below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support 37.21, 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price jumped above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/10/14, thereby confirming its bullish trend. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 10 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price jumped above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/10/14. SLV remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 6/26/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.43% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
1.65% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
1.42% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
2.60% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
0.88% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.41% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.47% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.92% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.62% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.32% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.51% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
0.79% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.23% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
2.73% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
1.14% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
0.09% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.33% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
0.19% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.32% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.44% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
0.40% , SO , SOUTHERN
0.45% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.47% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.34% , EFX , EQUIFAX
0.35% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
0.13% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.13% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
0.64% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.08% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.05% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.05% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
0.22% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
0.21% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.53% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.26% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.38% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.27% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-2.14% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.62% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-6.06% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.92% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.73% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-2.66% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.01% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-4.76% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-2.29% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
-2.88% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-2.67% , LB , L Brands, LB
-1.74% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-1.87% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.53% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-1.25% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.65% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.26% , DOV , DOVER
-3.18% , BBY , BEST BUY
-1.51% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-1.59% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-2.57% , KBH , KB HOME
-4.10% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-2.03% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.85% , MAS , MASCO
-1.77% , GLW , CORNING
-1.18% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
-0.96% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.07% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-1.40% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.23% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.80% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.68% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.62% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.56% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.55% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.51% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.47% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.47% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.45% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.41% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.32% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.25% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.21% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.19% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.15% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.12% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.08% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.05% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.03% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.03% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.03% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.07% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.08% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.10% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.10% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.15% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.15% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.18% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.19% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.23% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.26% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.27% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.28% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.29% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.31% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.32% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.32% , Networking, IGN
-0.32% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.33% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.33% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.36% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.36% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.37% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.37% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.38% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.39% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.40% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.40% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.40% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.43% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.44% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.44% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.44% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.46% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.47% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.47% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.48% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.48% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.49% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.51% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.53% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.53% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.54% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.55% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.56% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.57% , Dividend International, PID
-0.57% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.59% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.59% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.60% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.61% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.61% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.62% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.62% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.65% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.66% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.68% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.68% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.68% , Global 100, IOO
-0.71% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.71% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.72% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.73% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.74% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.74% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.75% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.77% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.78% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.81% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.89% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.93% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.94% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.96% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.96% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.99% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.00% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.00% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.04% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.04% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.05% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.06% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.06% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.07% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.07% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.07% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.09% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.10% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.12% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.13% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.14% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.16% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.18% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.18% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.21% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.24% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.25% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.25% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.26% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.33% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.36% , France Index, EWQ
-1.37% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.38% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.44% , India PS, PIN
-1.45% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.62% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.65% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.73% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.76% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.87% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.92% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.94% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.05% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.14% , Netherlands Index, EWN
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1985.59, high of 7/3/2014

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1925.40, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1835.60, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009